Trump Keeps Winning Over Hispanic Voters — and It Could Be Decisive for November; Why Is Trump Gaining With Black and Hispanic Voters?

Trump keeps winning over Hispanic voters — and it could be decisive for November:

Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground with Hispanic voters — and it could be decisive for the outcome of the election in November, according to a new poll.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ standing with the key voting bloc, meanwhile, appears to be slipping, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

Hispanic voters — even those who weren’t born in the US — aren’t nervous about his tough-on-illegal immigration message.

Despite Democrats’ efforts to scare Hispanic voters away from Trump over his immigration rhetoric, a firm 51% of Hispanic respondents born in another country feel that he is not talking about them when he talks about deporting illegal immigrants, according to the poll.

Among Hispanic respondents born in the US, that figure jumps to 67% who feel he isn’t talking about them.

Some 40% of Hispanic respondents born outside of the US believed Trump’s tough immigration rhetoric was aimed at them, while 30% of Hispanic voters writ large felt the same way, per the poll.

Harris, 59, had a 19-percentage point lead over Trump with the critical group of voters (56% to 37% among likely Hispanic voters), marking a significant decline from where Democrats have stood in recent election cycles.

The poll gauged a significant discrepancy between male and female Hispanic voters, with Harris up 62% to Trump’s 31% among Hispanic women. Her edge then sunk among Hispanic men, 48% to Trump’s 45%.

Gender divisions have been a key theme of the 2024 presidential election, including among other minority groups. Former President Barack Obama raised eyebrows last week for complaining about black men for not being enthusiastic about Harris.

“We have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running. Now, I also want to say that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers,” Obama said last week.

Democrats haven’t fallen below the 60% threshold with Hispanic voters since John Kerry’s loss to former President George W. Bush in 2004. Though Democrats have generally been in decline with the key group since the recent highs of the Obama years. —>READ MORE HERE

Why Is Trump Gaining With Black and Hispanic Voters?

Five possible explanations for the increases in support, particularly among young men.

In 2016, Donald J. Trump became the Republican nominee and ultimately won the presidency after calling many Mexican immigrants rapists and falsely claiming that Barack Obama was not born in the United States.

Eight years later, the polls suggest that he might well return to the White House by faring better among Black and Hispanic voters combined than any Republican presidential nominee since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act in 1964.

How is this possible? It’s a question I get often, and the latest New York Times/Siena College polls of Black and Hispanic voters nationwide represent our best effort at answering it.

Like our other surveys this cycle, the polls find Mr. Trump faring unusually well for a Republican among Black and Hispanic voters. Overall, Kamala Harris is ahead, 78 percent to 15 percent, among Black voters, and she’s leading, 56-37, among Hispanic voters.

Almost any way we can measure it, Mr. Trump is running as well or better among Black and Hispanic voters as any Republican in recent memory. In 2020, Joe Biden’s Black support was 92 percent among major-party voters; his Hispanic support was 63 percent, according to Times estimates.

The poll offers plenty of insight into Mr. Trump’s strengths and Ms. Harris’s weaknesses, but it does not offer a simple, definitive answer. This may be unsatisfying, but it should not be surprising. After all, analysts are still debating whether Mr. Trump’s strength among white working-class voters is attributable to the economy, racism, ideology, sexism, Hillary Clinton’s liabilities or one of countless other theories. There still isn’t a definitive answer, even with the benefit of the final results and almost a decade of research.

The truth is there are many explanations and they’re hard to untangle. Here, I’ll offer five explanations offered by the survey. This list is not comprehensive — not even close. But each one plays a role in the story. —>READ MORE HERE

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