Iran is being careful with its messaging in the wake of the Israeli airstrikes on Iran on Saturday morning. The regime is waiting to see what it wants to do in response – if anything. This is because the regime’s leadership is divided on how to respond.
Iran’s relatively new President Masoud Pezeshkian said that the Islamic Republic does not seek war. However, he has been quoted in IRNA state media as saying Iran will prepare a proportionate response.
“He said that the Islamic Republic and the Iranian people have shown over the past 45 years that they would not back down against any aggressor,” IRNA noted. Meanwhile Iran’s Iran’s Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref echoed the president’s comments by claiming that Israel would receive an appropriate response. To illustrate the message discipline coming out of Iran, the Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also said that Iran does not seek war, but will respond to at the “appropriate time.”
While it is clear that the president of Iran and his closest advisors and officials prefer the same messaging, Iran’s IRGC and Iranian proxies likely have other ideas.
Focusing on the big picture: International diplomacy
The split in messaging and aspirations from the war is likely fueled by the Iranian president and foreign minister’s recent diplomatic outreach successes. The foreign minister has visited most countries in the region, including countries close to the West such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The Iranian president was also recently at BRICS in Russia, along with an Egyptian delegation.
Iran’s president demonstrates a preference for the bigger policy choices of trade and relationships to focusing on war with Israel. He leaves that up to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies
Iran is working the phones to get condemnations of Israel – obtaining criticisms from the Gulf countries.
Tehran’s foreign minister spoke to his counterpart in Oman, according to Iranian reports on October 28.
Iranian state media also said on Monday that the “attack” did not affect a trade delegation that arrived from the Kurdistan region of Iraq.
Israel’s strikes: both deadly and weak?
There are hints that more is afoot. The IRGC has mourned the “martyrdom” of four military personnel in the October 26 strikes. “The illegitimate and illegal action of the child-killing Zionist regime, which failed to achieve its goals due to the readiness of the country’s air defense, shows the miscalculation as well as helplessness of this regime on the battlefield with resistance fighters, especially in Gaza and Lebanon,” IRGC commander Hossein Salami said, adding that “certainly, its bitter consequences will be unimaginable for the occupiers.”
Iranian media also claimed an Iranian civilian had died in the strikes.
For now Iran is focused on rounding up diplomatic support – It wants the UN to condemn Israel.
Iranian state media reported the Iranian foreign minister even reached out to his counterpart in the UK to try to get condemnation of Israel – an unlikely outcome. This is clearly reaching, but it shows the determination of Iran to present itself as a responsible country, pursuing diplomatic avenues.
Iran knows that its own actions ignited the region and caused Israel’s retaliation. It has backed Hamas and the October 7 attacks and arranged for proxies to attack Israel for over a year. However, it still wants to claim to be a victim.
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