I wrote a similar article when Joe Biden was still a presidential candidate. Back then, the polls suggested that a Trump landslide was a real possibility. Now the polls are closer, and some pollsters claim that Kamala Harris will win. I disagree.
Please remember that most of what you are about to read is my opinion based on an analysis of political articles and polling data. As such, it should be taken with a grain of salt.
The reason you should be both doubtful and cautiously optimistic is simple. Although the polls say the election will be close, Trump is currently in the best position polling-wise of any of his three presidential campaigns.
Let’s set the stage for this election. Biden, Kamala Harris, and the Democrat elite raided the U.S. Treasury to the tune of over $3 trillion during their first two years in office. This was done under the guise of the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS Act, and the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act. The resulting tidal wave of government cash caused inflation to spike, pushing prices up over 20% in four years. Everything from food and electricity to insurance and interest rates went up and have stayed up.
At the same time, President Biden and Border Czar Harris allowed almost anyone to illegally cross our borders. Estimates are that around 8 million people crossed the border, with another 1.5 million got-aways not apprehended by the Border Patrol. According to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, over 660,000 have criminal histories. The cost to house, feed, and care for these people is at least $150 billion/year nationwide. That money could have gone to U.S. citizens to help pay for natural disasters and other problems.
Crime related to illegal immigration is rising. According to revised FBI estimates, violent crime rose by 4.5% in 2022. Despite incomplete FBI statistics and mainstream media attempts to whitewash the issue, a recent study discovered that illegals are roughly twice as likely to be in prison in New York as other state residents, four times as likely in New Jersey, and five times as likely in Arizona. There have been many high-profile crimes involving illegals and foreign gang members in Colorado, Georgia, and many other states.
I could name many other issues — everything from Afghanistan to electric vehicle mandates to DIE, weaponization of the Justice Department and the FBI, and on and on.
All of this ill use and poor judgment has produced some damning polling statistics. According to the Real Clear Politics averages, roughly 64% of voters believe that the country is on the wrong track. Roughly 60% disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, inflation, and immigration. In an Economist/YouGov poll, only 35% said they were better off now than four years ago. In an Atlas Intel poll, 52% said immigration was the greatest challenge for the U.S. In a CBS News poll, 62% were in favor of a program to deport all illegal aliens. Since Kamala said she would have done nothing different from Biden, these numbers could prove to be a liability.
This may have already happened in response to Biden’s left-wing policies. According to Gallup, Republicans now have a three-point party affiliation advantage for the first time in the thirty-two years Gallup has been keeping records. Pew Research says the Democrat/Republican registration numbers are almost even.
Polls show that Kamala will get less support from blacks and Hispanics than Biden in 2020. Pew Research claims that Biden received 92% of the Black vote and 59% of the Hispanic vote. According to the Economist/YouGov poll, Kamala has 80% of the black vote and 55% of the Hispanic vote. Atlas Intel says Kamala gets only 67% of the black vote and 53% of the Hispanic vote.
The accuracy of political polls over the past two presidential elections has been poor. In 2016, the RCP average overestimated Hillary’s vote by roughly one point nationally. No big deal there. However, the average miss was 7.4 points in states where Trump won. Post-election, the culprit was identified as an undercount of white men and women without a college degree. Polling organizations later claimed they had fixed the problem.
In 2020, the RCP average overstated Biden’s lead by 2.7 points nationally. State polls overestimated Biden’s lead by an average of 4.3 points. The problem was then identified as a combination of low-trust voters, late-deciding voters, and non-response bias, meaning conservatives who refused to answer polls. The possibility that Trump voters might lie to the pollsters was dismissed; however, I think the late-deciding voters were going to vote for Trump all along.
Pollsters claim they have solved what they are now calling the low-propensity Trump voter issue, but they say polling these voters requires more time and money. My personal opinion is that the pollsters don’t have a clue. The hidden/secret/ignored/unpolled Trump vote is real and will make its presence felt. If you want my long take on the hidden Trump vote, click here.
This election has seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. According to the RCP averages, Trump has the lead in all seven. Whether this holds up when the votes are counted remains to be seen.
Either candidate can win just three battleground states and become the 47th president. For example, if Trump wins a combination of Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it is game over. Kamala can do the same thing.
There is something called the Electoral College bias chart, which claims to tie the popular vote to the number of electoral votes Trump will win. According to this chart, even if Kamala wins the popular vote by a margin of 2 points, Trump will win the Electoral College and the presidency. If Kamala’s margin is anything less than 2 points, chances are Trump will pick up more than the 270 electoral votes he needs. Currently, the RCP national polling average shows the race tied. So, advantage Trump.
What happens if Trump outperforms the polls? If he gets a 1% bump, he will probably sweep the battleground states. That will guarantee him 312 electoral votes. Some Democrat-leaning states could fall if he gets a 2–3% bump. This means Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Maine.
My take is that New Mexico and New Hampshire are the most likely to go Trump. A recent poll suggests Trump has a slight lead in the Shire. Virginia is unlikely to flip due to the number of government workers who reside there.
I’m not sure about Minnesota. When I was a Democrat years ago, I voted for Jimmy Carter. Carter was (and still is) a good man but a lousy president. The next election, I voted for Reagan. In a similar twist, I would tell the good Democrats there to vote for Trump. If you don’t like the result, you can vote for a Democrat next time.
I know not what course others may take, but as for me, I intend to settle in with a few brews and a big bag of chips, cholesterol be damned, and watch CNN on election night. I think it’s gonna be good.
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