I think it wise to just vote and ignore the polls and pundits, many of whom are dealing from the bottom of the deck and bluffing. I’d also ignore those doomsters who claim on the basis of the 2020 election that it will be stolen. Sure, as I note below, there has been and will be a lot of cheating, but the Republicans are getting better at monitoring it and reducing it. Sure, the press is lying again, but as I show below, the legacy media has blown its credibility and alternate content providers are capturing audiences away from them.
Polls and Pundits
Bill Shipley offers up the best most succinct argument for ignoring pollsters and using your own estimates of the strength of enthusiasm and ground games to predict the outcome:
The “noise” today that Harris is rallying and Trump is stalling, and early vote totals from women in some battleground states are becoming harbingers of doom for Trump have one purpose:
To prevent a down-ballot wipeout of Dems if voters become demoralized and think that Trump has it sewn up.
Nothing has happened in the race to support the media polling out today — MEDIA POLLING — from outfits like Marist and Emerson.
In 2020 Marist had Biden +5 in PA, +6 in NC. Two weeks before the Nov. 2020 election, Marist had Biden ahead by 11 nationally.
Same for Emerson. Its last poll in 2020 had Biden +5 nationally.
They had Biden +8 in Wisconsin, +7 in Michigan, +4 in PA.
They had Biden +1 in Ohio and Trump +1 in Iowa.
Trump won both states +8.
So, when you see the media walking out these polls today as evidence of a Harris comeback, understand they are Eastern Colleges, affiliated with anti-Trump media organizations, and their JOB — which the media has embraced — is to push Harris to victory.
The 2020 Election Prologue
A number of posters on X reminded us this week of the media and intelligence community’s interference with the last national election. Here’s Michael Shellenberger:
All the major elements of the FBI & CIA conspiracy to interfere in the 2020 election on behalf of Joe Biden are now confirmed: — FBI had the Hunter Biden laptop in Dec. 2019 & knew it “was real” immediately — FBI, spying on Giuliani, knew he would give the laptop to media — FBI ran a disinformation campaign in the summer of 2020 to “prebunk” the story with journalists & social media companies, both directly and through Aspen Institute, by falsely claiming Russians were planning disinfo relating to Hunter Biden — “Former” FBI General Counsel turned Twitter Dep. Counsel, Jim Baker, convinced colleagues to censor the NY Post story after they had determined that it had *not* violated Twitter’s Terms of Service — CIA Director Gina Haspel approved, within a few hours, a disinformation campaign by 51 “former” CIA and other Intelligence Community leaders who falsely claimed the laptop was Russian disinformation The result was that millions of voters thought the laptop was fake and never learned that Joe Biden oversaw a vast influence-peddling scheme involving China, Ukraine, and other nations, with his son and brother, until after the election. These are high crimes for which people should go to prison.
And Mollie Hemingway on how by chance she was an eyewitness to Jake Tapper, Jim Sciutto, and James Clapper firing off together the Russian Collusion hoax on a CNN set.
Maze Moore comments on the perfidy in 2020 of the Washington Post:
The Washington Post committed massive election interference on behalf of Joe Biden to help him win in 2020. WP produced a fake story through its “fact checking” department that became nationally accepted and served as the basis for exonerating Biden of corruption in Ukraine. [snip] Hunter Biden was being paid by corrupt, criminal oligarch Zlochevsky, owner of Burisma. At the same time, Joe Biden demanded that Prosecutor General Shokin be fired or that he would not release U.S. aid to Ukraine. It worked. Shokin was fired. There are two options. Prosecutor General Shokin’s office was investigating the owner of Burisma or it wasn’t. If it was, that means that Joe Biden blackmailed the President of Ukraine into firing a prosecutor who was investigating a criminal who was paying his son millions of dollars for doing nothing. If that is the accepted narrative, there is no way around it. There is a good chance that Biden does not get elected. Even Trump’s phone call that led to the first impeachment would have been seen differently. Or… the Prosecutor General wasn’t investigating Zlochevsky and Joe Biden just cared a lot about fighting corruption in Ukraine. This actually became the narrative and it was because of the WP. The Washington Post never spoke to PG Shokin even though Shokin volunteered to talk. [snip] “The investigation into Burisma was dormant.” And boy did they run that story over and over and over. Every single day until half the country was mindlessly repeating it. Dan Goldman quoted the Washington Post story repeatedly in defense of Joe Biden. French journalist Olivier Berruyer actually looked into what Shokin did during his one year stint as PG. Turns out, the investigation was active the entire year. The court had seized all of Zlochevsky’s personal property just days before Biden demanded that Shokin be fired. Biden absolutely did use foreign aid to get a prosecutor fired who was investigating a criminal who was paying his son. Biden said they replaced Shokin with “someone solid.” That person closed all criminal cases against Zlochevsky and settled for a fine. The fact checkers at the WP straight up lied about other aspects of the story.
This week Trump’s Truth Social parent company was valued at $10.6 billion, a press is self-immolating:
When the media throws a massive, unhinged temper tantrum — like they did over Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally this past week — it accomplishes two things.
First, it recalibrates the media even further to the left side of the political aisle, ensuring they will lose the viewership (and likely the votes) of those further left in the center-left area of the political spectrum. Every day, the mainstream media behaves so bizarrely that it can’t help but open the eyes of many in the center-left who have otherwise already been ‘captured’ by legacy media.
Second, it simply encourages more of their viewers to switch to alternative media. There’s a reason the Donald Trump interview on Joe Rogan was the most sought-after interview of the presidential election cycle, and there’s a reason both Trump and J.D. Vance went on a podcast tour as part of their campaigns: these alternative content producers are not only where audiences are now, but where audiences are going and growing.
The journalistic liberties and exaggerations taken with rhetoric and left-wing talking points, many backed by anonymous sources, are being seen for what they are: lies.
Take, for example, this past week’s absolute obsession with comparing Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally to a Nazi rally. Most of my readers know this is an unhinged comparison from the get-go — but what about that earnest independent or left-wing voter who believed the media’s narrative that it was some kind of hate-fueled fascist meetup?
Imagine their thoughts when the rally, initially cast as some kind of anti-Semitic KKK Groupon event, was followed by photos on social media showing Israeli flags:
And Jewish attendees wrapping Tefillin and praying [snip]
And here’s MSNBC’s Mika Brzezinski having a complete normal one about it:
“I think it was everything that you need to know about Donald Trump in one weird, white nationalist, Nazi-type rally, and of course, there’s historic parallels to where and when this happened.”
In fact, one can almost draw a direct correlation between the positive early voting numbers for the GOP and the ramping up of Hitler and Nazi rhetoric from the left.[snip]
As Joe Rogan pointed out to Donald Trump… many of these same media figures adored him before he entered politics. Surely, the hosts on The View didn’t think he was a racist, misogynist homophobe back when they were laughing with him, right?
And J.D. Vance proved this week, during his interview with Jake Tapper, that when confronted with the truth, the media only squirms further.[snip]
I predicted that the mainstream media would collapse under the weight of independent media’s rise.
Since then, their ratings have been decimated, and they’ve lost even more trust.
It’s a New Day
There have been such vast improvements in the Republican fraud catching and halting efforts this time around, it’s hard to keep up with them, though Elizabeth Nickson has done an admirable job recording how every county, every precinct is being watched by hawk-faced MAGA men and women who plan to be “agile, mobile. Move like lightning and sound like thunder.” People like Elon Musk, Scott Presler, True the Vote and its 100,000 volunteers, donor Miriam Adelson, Charlie Kirk’s Turnout for America, the RNC’s 200,000 volunteers, Trump Force 47, and hundreds of thousands of canvassers. In my experience it’s the folks on the ground who spell the difference between victory and defeat, and Nickerson pays them earned respect.
Atlas, the most accurate pollster in 2020 predicts a clean sweep. I agree with those who contend that Trump need only snatch victory in one brick of the blue wall to win, but despite the best efforts of the many people and groups Nickson details, there remain an estimated 3.2 million illegal votes out there which will be counted — votes which come through the ERIC electronic registration program in use in 28 states.
How this boils out is still, therefore, not really predictable but I’m inclined to the view of Scott Adams,
I predict Trump will get the most real votes, but Democrats will empty the trickster vault to keep him from being certified and taking office on schedule. I predict massive voter fraud will be discovered and it will confirm in the minds of the public that Trump was probably right about 2020 being rigged. It will be the greatest Third Act in political history. I predict America will sort it all out by the end of January(ish). Probably via Supreme Court. Trump will take office. The Golden Age begins.
I guess the Left figured that will be the case, too. They’re gearing up for post-election mayhem here in D.C., and in Portland, Seattle, and everywhere else where they succeeded in defunding the police.
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