Biden Still Would’ve Lost To Trump, But It Would Have Been Less Embarrassing For Democrats
Former President Donald Trump mopped the floor with Kamala Harris in a blowout comeback victory Tuesday night. As of the time of this report, Trump has a sizable lead in the popular vote and is poised to clinch the remaining battleground states.
Trump’s victory should be attributed to his strong policy, likability, election integrity team, and get-out-the-vote efforts. He would almost certainly have trounced Harris’ boss Joe Biden too, as Federalist CEO and Cofounder Sean Davis pointed out. But Trump’s historic win makes the effort to replace Joe Biden in a bloodless coup and install his unpopular vice president against the will of Democrat primary voters look a lot more ridiculous. It’s hard to imagine Biden — or a cardboard cutout for that matter — getting blown out of the water as majorly as Harris was.
“Biden still would’ve lost to Trump, but he would’ve done better than Harris and likely saved a handful of Senate seats for Democrats in the process,” Davis said on X. “Maybe even the House.”
CNN indicated early Wednesday morning that Harris failed to outperform Biden by 3 percent or more in any state.
Despite Biden’s age and visible cognitive decline, he maintained a strong connection to his Democratic base, especially minority voters and union workers — crucial constituencies for winning a swing state — whereas Harris struggled to gain union voters. The International Association of Fire Fighters and International Brotherhood of Teamsters declined to endorse a candidate this year despite backing Biden in 2020. A Teamsters poll released in September found 58 percent of Teamsters supported Trump while just 31 percent said they would support Harris. But Biden edged out Trump slightly in a straw poll completed before he was ousted from the race, with 44 percent of members supporting Biden compared to 36 percent for Trump.
While the Biden-Harris policies were abysmal for union workers, could Scranton Joe have narrowed Trump’s margin of victory?
And while exit polling indicates Harris ultimately won a majority of Hispanic voters in 2024 — 53 to 45 percent — Biden did marginally better with that block in 2020, according to Newsweek. Biden carried the block 59 percent to 38 percent during the 2020 election against Trump.
“She’s not as strong as me,” President Joe Biden told his former boss, Barack Obama, during a recent memorial service, according to a clip analyzed by the New York Post.
According to The Post’s lipreading assessment of the private conversation, Obama agreed, “that’s true.”
“Although Harris’ name was not included in [the lip reader’s] transcription, it’s unclear to whom else the conversation could have pertained,” the outlet reported.
While Harris is the vice president, it’s possible that well-known Biden — who has made his five-decade-long career off the back of the taxpayers — may have turned out more moderate and disaffected independent voters who ultimately voted against Harris this cycle. Although Biden has slowly moved further left of center, his decades of experience are rooted in an older, less radical era of the Democrat Party. He was at least more convincing when he pretended to be a moderate — especially when compared to Harris’ long history of backing radical left-wing policies.
While Biden’s appeal to moderates would likely not have been enough to drag him across the finish line in 2024, his candidacy may have had a positive ripple effect down ballot, potentially saving several Senate and House seats for Democrats.
Brianna Lyman is an elections correspondent at The Federalist. Brianna graduated from Fordham University with a degree in International Political Economy. Her work has been featured on Newsmax, Fox News, Fox Business and RealClearPolitics. Follow Brianna on X: @briannalyman2
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