Before the US election, the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq were increasing their drone threats to Israel. They have been launching drones and making more statements about potential involvement in attacks on Israel. The militias are part of the larger Iranian-backed milieu in the region.
There is no doubt that Iranian messaging after the US election is that Tehran and its axis of “resistance” will continue their attacks. Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said, “Iran and the Resistance Front are ready, and the Zionists cannot confront us, and they must await our response.”
The Iraqi militias represent a clear and present danger to Israel and the region, as well as to US troops in Iraq and Syria. During the first Trump administration, the militias increased their power and role in Iraq, many bolstered after ISIS invaded in 2014, and recruited based on a fatwa by Ayatollah Ali Sistani. After 2017, they then turned their recruits to conduct other operations in Iraq, with some moving towards threats to Israel – including Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba.
When the war began last year, the militias created the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group, to coordinate attacks on Israel. Since then, they have carried out dozens of drone attacks on Israel and US troops. The militias likely remember 2019, when their numerous attacks on US troops led to the US killing of IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
The militias believe that Trump is serious
They also know now that incoming US President-elect Donald Trump is serious, that he will defend US troops, and that he is critical of troop deployments; he sought to withdraw from Syria in 2018 and 2019, as some in his administration wanted to keep around 600 US troops in.
The militias could decide that increasing attacks on Israel is not in their interests. If they provoke Israel, Jerusalem may feel unrestrained in terms of strikes. There is a window of opportunity for the militias before Trump takes office in January. However, with opportunity comes risk.
The militias now live in the curse of interesting times. They may not want to be used by Iran as cannon fodder and a punching bag. On the other hand, they would want to show they can shoulder the burden of their frontline of the “resistance” against Israel. They know that Hamas and Hezbollah have been weakened, and so they are being asked to do more by Iran – the question is, are they capable of heavy lifting? They have many men under arms, and some drones and missiles, but they may not have the sophistication to do much more than desultory attacks.This is now where the region is, on the edge and waiting for the next phase, holding its breath. Many remember the first Trump administration, his transactional approach, and know he also backs Israel.
However, he is also reticent of foreign wars. This complexity means that Iran’s axis of various militias will be plotting their next move over the following days and weeks.
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