On November 8 reports emerged that Qatar, which has hosted Hamas since 2012, might be asking the group to leave.
Hamas leaders have resided in comfort in Qatar and they have an office there. Hamas was a much weaker group when it moved to Qatar in 2012. It grew exponentially more powerful in Gaza, increasing its rocket arsenal and its threats to Israel, while being hosted by Doha. Qatar is also a US major non-NATO ally.
This means that a US ally hosts the group that massacred more than 1,000 people on October 7, 2023.
On November 9 the stories about Qatar expelling Hamas shifted to be more about Doha saying it might end its role as hostage deal mediator. Hostages have been held by Hamas in Gaza for 400 days. Doha has portrayed itself as helping a hostage deal take place.
However, after the first deal in November, no more deals have happened. Elderly hostages and children, such as the Bibas children, were not released. The US and other countries have not been able to get their citizens released. This poses questions about whether Doha has been helping the talks or making sure Hamas gets the deal that Hamas wants.
Now that there appears to be pressure on Doha to have Hamas leave, Qatar is arguing that it won’t act as a mediator any longer, essentially threatening the fate of the hostages because a deal would ostensibly be harder without Doha in the middle.
To understand how we got here, it’s worth looking at history. Doha has managed to position itself as indispensable by hosting the group that carried out October 7, and then making it seem that having Hamas in Qatar would somehow help with a ceasefire or hostage deal.
One might wonder, if Hamas had never been in Qatar, would it have grown so powerful to do October 7? One might also wonder how none of the intelligence services in the region had any hint that Hamas was going to do this unprecedented attack. If it was a benefit, having Hamas in Doha, then why didn’t that prevent the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust.
If it was a benefit to have Hamas in Qatar, then why didn’t Hamas moderate itself via Doha’s pressure. Why didn’t Qatar condemn October 7? Why didn’t Doha even appear surprised by the Hamas onslaught. One would think that most countries hosting a group would be surprised if the group massacred 1,000 people.
Doha’s hosting of Hamas has been in the spotlight for years. Each time there was a push to get Hamas to leave Doha, there would be pushback. The argument was that it was better to have a western partner and ally hosting Hamas because this would facilitate dialogue with the group. In addition funding flowed from Doha to Gaza. This funding included money for reconstruction after the 2014 war and it also included money that paid salaries. The theory was that the money would keep Hamas happy. If the money stopped, then Hamas would go to war.
The problem with the theory that having a western ally host an extremist terrorist group is beneficial, is that there is no evidence having Hamas in Doha has decreased the chance for war. In fact the war in Gaza is the worst in history in Gaza. If Qatar was helpful, then the war should have been prevented. If Hamas had been hosted only by Iran, would the war in Gaza be worse? Would October 7 be worse? It’s hard to imagine how.
Hamas’s wider strategy
Doha’s hosting of Hamas was part of a wider global strategy. It also positioned itself as a host of the Taliban so that it could be a key conduit between the US and the Taliban. As such Doha became the broker of many deals in the region and globally. For instance it also positioned itself as a mediator with Iran, because Qatar has good ties with Iran. At each juncture Doha benefits from being a mediator but it also has good ties with both sides and often supports one more than the other. For instance, the Taliban have now crushed women’s rights in Afghanistan. The Taliban being hosted by Doha paved their way to return in 2021. It’s likely that having successfully brought the Taliban back to power, Qatar believed it could also bring Hamas to power in the West Bank.
Qatar does not appear to be a neutral mediator. It appears to often prefer more hardline groups, such as Hamas or the Taliban, or groups linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. However, Doha also knows how to be flexible. During the Gulf crises when Saudi Arabia and the other Arab states broke relations with Qatar, it weathered the storm until it could reconcile with Riyadh. It also reconciled with Cairo.
Qatar is a keen ally of Turkey and the two countries generally share interests. Both of them are allies of the West officially but both are happy to work with opponents of the West. Both of them believe this independent policy benefits them more than merely being on the side of the west. Balancing the West and other countries, such as Iran, can make the “mediator” indispensable to both sides.
Now reports indicate that rather than expelling Hamas, Doha may be threatening to end its role as a mediator. This ostensibly presents Israel and the US with the worst of both worlds. Hamas could remain in Qatar and Doha wouldn’t mediate. The real story is likely more complex. Qatar has often hinted in the past that any pressure it receives from Washington or even critique of its role in Congress, could harm the hostage talks.
In essence, Doha positioned itself as mediator by hosting Hamas and then tries to pressure countries into using it as a mediator. This is not a neutral place to be, when mediation is the business. It’s not altruistic, it’s purposely hosting Hamas to make itself a player so that it can become the mediator, so that countries have to go via Doha to get things done.
Reports that Hamas might be asked to leave could be a trial balloon, and Doha’s decision to then claim it is ending its role as a mediator may be designed to send a message to Israel and the US that if there is any pressure on Doha, then Qatar will walk away and the hostage talks and ceasefire talks will end. This would then be used to pressure Israel by claiming no other countries will step in as mediators.
The US election on November 5 could also play a role here. Reports say that incoming US President Donald Trump wants the Gaza war to end. Doha could be signaling to the incoming administration that it will not be threatened with pressuring Hamas to end the war, and that any attempt to get Hamas out of Doha will result in a longer war. Of course the US and others could call this bluff. The overall goal of Qatar is to keep the ball in its court and make sure that it is the go-to in the region whenever there is conflict.
Comments are closed.