Trump has made it clear that that he will push for an end in the war in Ukraine. Russia is the winning country in Ukraine, being the more powerful force, and has taken over 20% of Ukraine, which means that its going to want to absorb what it has conquered for its Federation in order to agree on a peace settlement. Russia also wants guarantees that Ukraine will not be allowed to enter NATO. Russia will not give up on territory it has taken over, so if Ukraine is going to want a peace settlement, its going to have to agree on ceding territory to its archenemy. If this happens, the fanatics of Ukraine — the ultranationalists — will try to use this lessening of Ukraine to gain popularity by presenting themselves as the true patriots and defenders of their country.
Konstantin Zatulin, a lawmaker in Mr. Putin’s political party, said in an interview made this condition of maintaining control over the lands Russia has conquered very clear: “Everything will be based on facts… Everything we have is ours; everything Ukraine has is Ukraine’s.”
Konstantin Malofeev, a conservative businessman allied with the Kremlin, stated: “It will be difficult for us to come to an agreement precisely because even our softest position involves additional territorial concessions from Ukraine,” said
For months, Ukraine has said that they will not give up territory to Russia. Now Ukraine is putting more priority on getting a guarantee from Russia that it will not attack after a peace agreement. As the New York Times reported:
With Ukrainian forces steadily losing ground in the east, two senior officials said that defending Ukraine’s interests in potential talks would hinge not on territorial boundaries, which are likely to be determined by the fighting, but on what assurances are in place to make a cease-fire hold.
“Talks should be based on guarantees,” said Roman Kostenko, the chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Defense and Intelligence Committee. “For Ukraine, nothing is more important.”
Now, the point that Ukraine had driven so hard — that it would never cede territory — has become secondary. As one Ukrainian official told the New York Times: “The territorial question is extremely important, but it’s still the second question … The first question is security guarantees.” But Ukraine’s hope is that even if it does cede territory to Russia, that world (generally speaking) will not recognize such conquered lands as Russian, but Ukrainian. President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed this hope in a discussion a cease-fire, saying: “Everyone understands that no matter what path we take, legally no one will recognize the occupied territories as belonging to other countries.” But even if this is the case, Russia will see such territory as its own, and just like Crimea or in Donbas, it will have soldiers there, and people will live under the Russian Federation, regardless of the consensus of the international community. And if Ukraine, in a show of defiance to Russia, does a military action in the conquered territories, Russia will see it as either an attack or encroachment on the Russian Federation, or a violation of the peace agreement, and the war will resume.
Moreover, Ukraine wants membership in NATO, as the New York Times reports:
Officials in Kyiv have been seeking membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as a guarantee against renewed attacks from Russia. Western officials have signaled they want Ukraine to join NATO, but not on any kind of accelerated timetable.
However, “Russia has long said that it considers Ukrainian entry into NATO unacceptable. It has signaled that such a move would be a deal breaker for any cease-fire agreement, while also indicating it will want to keep control of the territory it has captured in Ukraine.” If the US agrees to allow Ukraine into NATO, and Russia resumes fighting with Ukraine, it would force NATO into a very difficult decision: to either go to war directly with Russia or not. Any hesitation or indecision on NATO part will put the entire bloc’s existence into question, and the bloc would eventually fade away from existence. If the US wants a peace deal, it will have to agree to guarantee that Ukraine will not be allowed entry into NATO. With a Trump presidency, the US will tell the Germans — and their European allies — to shoulder the burden of Ukraine as the US fixates on China. It was reported Radio Free Europe that “Under a Trump presidency, there are fears in Brussels that the EU will have to shoulder more of the burden of financial and military support for Ukraine.” In such a case, talk about not trusting the US, or about Germany not being able to rely on the US, will grow stronger, and talk of a pan-European army led by Germany will also heighten. But, Trump has also stated that if Russia does not agree with any deal, that the US would challenge Russia: “I would tell Putin, If you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him a lot.” But still, Russia has the position to make its demands. Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a Ukrainian former minister of defense, affirmed: “Whoever is in a winning position sets the terms,” he said. “It is true for governments or businesses.”
