Will Trump bring even more war to the Middle East?

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election marks a pivotal moment in the nation’s history, reflecting a fierce internal struggle within American society. 

This election was exceptionally challenging, revealing deep internal divisions and a public weary of traditional political structures. It represented a moment in which not only domestic leadership was at stake, but also global influence, which has been gradually waning.

Interest in the American election reached far beyond the US. Observers from allies to adversaries, from political experts to ordinary citizens, followed the events closely. While Washington’s hegemony may be weakening, its influence still spans many parts of the world. America’s hand is evident in numerous conflicts – from Ukraine to the war in Gaza. The world watched intently, understanding that the outcome would shape strategic decisions affecting many regions.

Domestically, Trump’s policies in his first term became emblematic of a shift toward strengthening traditional American values and enacting substantial change. He assumed power with promises to restore the nation’s economic strength and fortify its borders, resulting in a sharp tightening of immigration policies and a push to support domestic industries. Trump fervently promoted the idea of ‘America First’, emphasizing the need to focus on American interests.

On the international stage, the Trump administration sought to reinforce US power, albeit on new terms. He pursued a hardline approach toward international organizations, reevaluating membership terms and criticizing established alliances such as NATO. Trump consistently demonstrated his readiness to negotiate with firmness and intensity, defending US interests even at times to the detriment of traditional partners.

What, then, can we expect from Trump this time, especially regarding Middle East policy? Was his return anticipated in the Middle East, or has his reemergence on the American political stage sparked concern and apprehension?

Those who welcomed Trump and those who did not

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greeted Trump’s return to the White House with enthusiasm. Amid rising internal pressure and complex border tensions with Gaza and Lebanon, close collaboration with the US becomes essential for maintaining Israel’s position. Internal protests and a prolonged conflict with Palestine have fueled discontent among Israelis, while the international community increasingly scrutinizes Israeli policies.

During Trump’s previous term, Israel achieved key diplomatic victories: The recognition of Jerusalem as its capital, the relocation of the US Embassy, acknowledgment of sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. These moves significantly strengthened Israel’s standing, opening new economic and political opportunities and enabling Netanyahu to consolidate support domestically.

With Trump’s return, Israel sees a renewed chance for robust support, vital for regional security and curbing Iran’s influence. The Israeli government anticipates steady cooperation and is ready to deepen its strategic alliance with the US to achieve long-term objectives. 

Trump’s comeback has sparked visible approval among key Middle Eastern leaders. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have all expressed joy at the news. Erdogan, in particular, underscored his fondness for Trump, calling him a “dear friend” and inviting him for an official visit to Türkiye, signaling trust between them and a hopeful outlook for bolstered bilateral cooperation.

For Middle Eastern leaders, the Democratic administration of President Joe Biden posed numerous challenges. Principles such as the emphasis on human rights and social reforms often clashed with these countries’ priorities and domestic values. Biden’s approach, seen as overly critical and interventionist, intensified scrutiny over issues such as women’s rights, freedom of speech, and political transparency, creating additional hurdles for the governments of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye.

Trump’s return offers regional leaders a chance at a more pragmatic US policy focused on mutual economic and strategic interests. They look forward to his approach, free from rigid pressures and moralizing tones, allowing a focus on key areas of collaboration – security, economy, and common regional challenges.

Among Middle Eastern countries, there are also those less enthused by Trump’s return. Alongside Democratic Party supporters, disappointment is shared in Iran, where hopes leaned on Democratic candidate Kamala Harris winning and offering Tehran a path to ease relations with Washington. But Trump has returned, and the Iranian authorities realize that diplomacy is unlikely to resume. 

During Trump’s first term from 2016 to 2020, he solidified his reputation as one of Iran’s toughest adversaries. In 2018, he withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, also known as the Iran nuclear deal), which limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Declaring the deal “insufficient,” Trump imposed severe economic sanctions that hit the Iranian economy hard, crippling its oil industry and banking system. This led Iran into a deep economic crisis and prompted Tehran to gradually abandon its JCPOA commitments, further straining relations. Now, with Trump’s return, Iran harbors no illusions about restoring the deal and recognizes that sanctions will likely intensify.

Yet the threats in Tehran go beyond the economy. Israel, Iran’s main regional adversary, gains a renewed strategic edge with Trump’s return, bolstering its security stance against Iran. During his first term, Trump reinforced ties with Israel, supporting its initiatives aimed at countering Iranian influence. This support included intelligence sharing, security coordination, and strategic endorsement, enabling Israel to act more assertively. With Trump’s return, Israel gains a powerful ally, and against this backdrop, the Israeli authorities may escalate the conflict with Iran, confident that their actions will likely receive endorsement and support from Washington.

For Tehran, Israel’s strengthened position presents a direct threat. With the potential for increased US support, Israel may initiate further strikes on Iranian assets in Syria or even extend operations against Iranian infrastructure in the region to curb Iran’s influence. The Iranian authorities are well aware that a new Trump era may signal another round of confrontation and conflict escalation, with Israel, backed by the US, adopting an even tougher and more active stance.

In Qatar, Trump’s return to the presidency raises concerns, given past events under his administration. In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt severed diplomatic relations with Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism and imposing an economic blockade. These actions led to serious economic and political consequences for Qatar, isolating it within the region.

The role of the Trump administration in this crisis raised questions. Trump openly supported Saudi Arabia and its allies, accusing Qatar of financing terrorism. In June 2017, he stated that “Qatar, unfortunately, has historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level.” This US stance increased pressure on Doha and complicated diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis.

With this in mind, Qatar views Trump’s return to power with apprehension. The authorities fear a repetition of past policies that could lead to renewed isolation and heightened regional tensions. Qatar hopes for a more balanced approach from the US that promotes stability and cooperation in the Persian Gulf.

What will Trump’s new Middle East policy look like?

Trump’s previous term demonstrated a distinctive and assertive approach to the Middle East, marked by bold actions and a notable departure from traditional US diplomatic practices in the region. Although his new administration is not yet fully formed, his past actions, statements, and campaign rhetoric provide a basis for predicting how he might shape Middle Eastern policy in a potential second term.

One cornerstone of Trump’s policy has been unwavering support for Israel. During his first term, he recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moved the US embassy there, and acknowledged Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. These moves solidified his intention to strengthen US-Israeli ties and bolster Israel’s position in the region. Faced with ongoing tensions in Gaza and potential escalations in Lebanon, Trump would likely continue to provide diplomatic and military support to Israel, framing Israeli actions against Hamas and Hezbollah as essential for self defense. However, Trump’s pragmatism may lead him to call for restraint if conflicts begin to threaten US interests in the region, especially if civilian casualties draw international scrutiny. 

A key element of Trump’s Middle Eastern strategy could be a renewed ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran. His approach would likely involve strengthening sanctions to further constrain Iran’s influence across the region and limit its economic capabilities. Trump sees Iran as one of the region’s main destabilizing forces, and a second term may mean deepening military and intelligence support for US allies such as Israel and the Gulf states to counter Iranian influence. Additionally, Trump may seek new diplomatic agreements with Arab nations, similar to the Abraham Accords, with the aim of creating a stronger regional coalition that would diplomatically and economically isolate Iran. This approach could be paired with a continued military presence in the Persian Gulf, a deterrent aimed at dissuading Iran from aggressive actions.

During his first term, Trump prioritized relationships with key Arab allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Both nations appreciated Trump’s more transactional approach to diplomacy, which emphasized strategic and economic interests over human rights concerns and social reform. Trump viewed Saudi Arabia and the UAE as essential partners in countering Iran and promoting regional stability. This strategic alignment resulted in significant arms deals and economic agreements, including Saudi Arabia’s purchase of billions of dollars in US military equipment, which bolstered the Saudi defense posture amid rising regional tensions.

In his second term, Trump will likely continue to nurture these relationships, prioritizing defense cooperation, counterterrorism, and economic partnerships. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed had a close relationship with Trump, viewing him as an ally who backed their security interests without pressuring them for internal reforms. Trump’s focus on economic ties would likely mean additional deals in energy, defense, and infrastructure, which are mutually beneficial and align with Trump’s vision of a pragmatic, interest-based foreign policy.

At the same time, these partnerships might complicate relations with Iran, as both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are committed to containing Iran’s influence in the region. Trump’s close partnership with these Gulf states might embolden them to take stronger stances against Iranian influence in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. His support could also empower them to counteract groups with Iranian backing, such as the Houthis in Yemen. However, Trump may also advocate for a degree of restraint, especially if hostilities threaten the stability of oil markets, which have a direct impact on the global economy.

Türkiye’s relationship with Trump during his first term was marked by a complex mix of cooperation and tension. Erdogan maintained a personal rapport with Trump, even as the US and Türkiye experienced diplomatic friction over issues such as US support for Kurdish forces in Syria and Türkiye’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, which led to Türkiye’s removal from the F-35 fighter jet program. Despite these challenges, Trump and Erdogan’s personal relationship allowed the two leaders to navigate several contentious issues, with Trump often opting for a pragmatic approach that avoided escalating conflicts. 

In his second term, Trump might continue this balancing act with Türkiye. Erdogan sees Trump as a friend and has expressed hope that his return will strengthen cooperation with the US, especially in areas such as counterterrorism and economic cooperation. Trump’s approach might involve a continuation of economic engagement, which Erdogan values, and a softer stance on human rights issues, which he finds intrusive. However, Trump’s alignment with Saudi Arabia and the UAE could be a point of contention, as Türkiye has often found itself on the opposite side of Gulf policies, particularly in Libya and Qatar, where Turkish influence is at odds with that of the Saudi-UAE bloc.

Given Türkiye’s strategic location and role as a NATO member, Trump might seek to keep it within the US strategic fold by prioritizing cooperation over confrontation. However, Trump’s stance on Kurdish forces in Syria could remain a delicate issue, as Erdogan views Kurdish militias as a security threat, while Trump may see them as valuable allies against ISIS. Navigating these issues will require Trump to carefully balance US interests in Syria and Iraq while maintaining a positive rapport with Erdogan. Trump may also explore avenues for economic cooperation, viewing Türkiye as a key player in regional energy projects and a potential economic partner. 

Overall, Trump’s Middle East policy will likely revolve around consolidating alliances that serve US economic and security interests while maintaining a hard line against Iran. His alignment with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE might result in a bloc aimed at countering Iranian influence across the region. Trump’s interest in fostering economic partnerships may lead to deeper integration among the Gulf states and potentially new agreements that resemble the Abraham Accords, aimed at promoting economic ties and diplomatic normalization. 

On the flip side, Trump’s approach could also reignite regional tensions. Iran may react aggressively to increased sanctions and the deepening of US alliances with the Gulf states and Israel, which could spark a new wave of instability in hotspots such as Yemen and Syria. Türkiye’s regional ambitions might also clash with those of other US allies, creating potential challenges in coordinating a unified regional strategy. Yet, Trump’s pragmatism and focus on transactional diplomacy could provide avenues for negotiation and de-escalation, particularly if his administration remains flexible on tactical issues. 

Trump’s second term could see a Middle Eastern policy rooted in bolstered alliances with Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and potentially new regional partners, all aimed at containing Iran’s influence while securing economic and security interests. His relationships with key leaders such as Netanyahu, Mohammed bin Salman, and Erdogan could shape a Middle Eastern strategy that emphasizes regional partnerships and transactional diplomacy over traditional alliances, prioritizing stability, economic growth, and US strategic interests.