J. Ann Selzer has announced her exit from election polling weeks after her outlier survey showed President-elect Donald Trump trailing Kamala Harris by three points in Iowa — a state he won by 13 points.
Leading up to Election Day, the Des Moines Register poll conducted by Ann Selzer caused an earthquake throughout the political world when it showed Trump trailing Kamala Harris by three points even though he won the state handily in both 2016 and 2020. Given Selzer’s reputation for being the “gold standard” of political polling, pundits and various commentators saw it as a potentially ominous sign for Trump’s election prospects and adjusted their models and predictions as a result, despite the poll being radically out of line with others that showed Trump leading Harris by as much as eight points in Iowa.
Come Election Day, Trump not only won the state but also crushed Harris by 13 points, destroying Selzer’s longstanding reputation.
In an op-ed for the Des Moines Register released on Sunday, Selzer said she will be hanging up her election polling hat, something she had been planning to do for over a year.
“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” she wrote.
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work,” she added.
Selzer said that she thought her “findings looked good” after over 30 years of polling, noting that she had earned an A+ rating in Nate Silver’s analysis of pollsters’ track records of accuracy
“My integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy — both in my professional and my personal relationships,” she concluded.
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