The United States sees “no indications” that Russia is prepping for a nuclear attack, the Pentagon said Tuesday, despite the Kremlin’s announcement of a change in nuclear posture. And while the doctrine change is alarming, experts say, it doesn’t mean the world is on the brink of nuclear war.
The Russian government on Tuesday announced a broadening of its nuclear doctrine, which allows for the use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear attack, and allows for strikes against Western nations that are supplying weapons to countries engaged in conflict with Russia—namely Ukraine.
The doctrine was originally changed in September, but Russian government officials are now linking the public change to reported Ukrainian attacks with U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles on Russian territory.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Brazil, said the Ukrainian use of the missiles “is a signal that they want escalation. Using such sophisticated missiles without the Americans is impossible. Putin warned about this and about how our position will change.”
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Defense One the new doctrine “emphasizes that the Russian president decides when to use nuclear weapons, which ultimately is what matters. In the end, this is intentionally ambiguous language, intended to signal and deter, while much comes down to one person’s interpretation of this criteria.”
Still, some Western observers believe the doctrine change indicates Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to respond to U.S. support for Ukraine with a nuclear escalation.
Sean McFate, adjunct professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs, said in a statement: “Putin has lowered the bar for Russian nuclear engagement, a clear signal to NATO to back off. It’s a response to Biden’s allowing Ukraine to use long-range American missiles against Russian targets. It is difficult to know when Putin is bluffing or not. Biden is rolling the nuclear dice on the eve of his transition. It’s completely reckless.”
However, in response to questions about the doctrine change, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told reporters Monday: “We don’t have any indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon within Ukraine.”
Other experts on Russian nuclear forces agree the doctrine change doesn’t necessarily mean nuclear war is imminent, despite the announcement’s language and timing. “I caution against the view that Russia would never escalate, but there’s still quite a lot of steps to go,” Gabriela Rosa Hernandez, a specialist in Russian security policy at CNAS, told Defense One.
“Overall, I don’t think these updates represent significant/true insights to Russia’s nuclear threshold, nor its likelihood to resort to nuclear use. But it is a representation of an emerging consensus that Moscow must employ more assertive and creative measures when it comes to its nuclear signaling to compel the West and show how far it is willing to go to accomplish its goals in Ukraine,” Hernandez said in an email. “Russia is embracing ideas thrown around that would improve coercive credibility.”
Jeffrey Edmonds, an adjunct senior fellow at CNAS’s transatlantic security program, told Defense One he thinks there is “still significant space between where we are at and nuclear use,” and noted the Russians have multiple avenues to threaten the West for its continued support of Ukraine.
“What this actually means for escalation is that we should not be surprised to see horizontal escalation—geographic e.g. arming Houthis, or vertical e.g. cables, [anti-satellite tests]…
Put another way, we should be surprised Putin has not started killing Americans in response to the combat enablers we have provided Ukraine, allowing it to kill thousands of Russian soldiers.”
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