The D Brief: More long-range missiles target Russia’s Kursk; Biden authorizes anti-personnel mines for Ukraine; SecDef Austin in the South China Sea; Satellite industry delays; And a bit more.
Developing: Ukraine’s military used British-supplied cruise missiles to strike targets inside Russia for the first time, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing parts of the Storm Shadow missiles that were allegedly spotted in Russia’s Kursk region this week. If confirmed, the action follows Ukraine’s recent use of U.S.-provided long-range missiles to strike Russian targets in the Kursk region as well.
Worth noting: Few observers believe these long-range authorizations and strikes will alter the course of the war. In fact, as Jack Watling of the London-based Royal United Services Institute wrote on Tuesday, “Ukraine fired the majority of the UK’s Storm Shadow arsenal at Russian deep targets in 2023 yet failed to degrade Russian command and control to a level that the Ukrainian military could take advantage of.” What they could lead to, however, are “exploitable opportunities in Russia’s defenses,” said Watling. “The question is whether the Ukrainian military is capable of exploiting the gap created.”
New: Ukraine’s president says if President-elect Trump cuts military funding to Kyiv, “I think we will lose” against Russia’s invasion troops. “We will fight. We have our production, but it’s not enough to prevail,” he said in an interview with Trey Yingst of Fox that aired Tuesday.
Also new: President Joe Biden just authorized the transfer of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, which is a policy shift that reflects changing Russian tactics and Ukrainian needs, Defense One’s Bradley Peniston reports while traveling with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in the Asia-Pacific.
Fine print: The mines will be “non-persistent,” which means they become inert after a set amount of time — “anywhere from 4 hours to 2 weeks,” an administration official said. The idea is to help Ukraine repel Russian advances that have in recent months been led by dismounted troops instead of armored vehicles, Austin said.
SecDef Austin: “What we’ve seen most recently is because the Russians have been so unsuccessful in the way that they have been fighting, they’ve kind of changed their tactics a bit, and they don’t lead with their mechanized forces anymore. They lead with the dismounted forces who are able to close and do things to kind of pave the way for mechanized forces,” Austin told reporters.
Expert reax: “I wouldn’t be surprised if this decision has a greater effect on the battlefield than the policy change on ATACMS strikes into Russian territory,” said Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Continue reading, here.
And the Pentagon announced a new $275 million aid package for Ukraine, which includes HIMARS rockets, Javelin missiles, and more, U.S. defense officials announced in Laos on Wednesday. The officials were visiting Laos for a meeting of ASEAN defense ministers, which is an annual conference of military leaders from the region and beyond. More, here.
More on the ATACMS decision: “I suspect the Biden administration did this for two reasons,” said retired Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “First to help preserve their legacy and not leave office with this glaring deficiency,” he told Defense One on Monday. “And second because this makes things easier for President Trump as he does not have to make this decision and it puts increased pressure on Putin before any negotiations.” However, he added, “In both cases this would benefit from more expanded geographic permissions.”
Second opinion: “Militarily, the targets are easy to determine,” said RUSI’s Jack Watling. “Destroying Russia’s ammunition dumps, or the fuelling and arming points for its strike aircraft, or Russian tactical-operational missile complexes, would have a useful effect in reducing the casualties being suffered by the Ukrainians, and thereby contribute to stabilizing the front. But these are not the targets that will yield leverage in negotiations,” he warned. Those include “economic and industrial” facilities, and “to be effective, their use must be part of a wider strategy that targets a specific target set,” Watling said. It’s not yet clear that Ukraine is capable of pulling that kind of strategy off.
What more could the Biden administration do to help Ukraine before leaving office on January 20? It could expand the ATACMS authority to “JASMM air to surface missiles in Russian territory as well,” Montgomergy said. He also advises “more promises of security assistance — from both the U.S. and Europe — and possibly as a loan in the future,” and recommends “increased pressure on Russian oil exports to include sanctions enforcement on the ‘shadow fleet’ delivering Russian oil and natural gas.” That would put President-elect Trump in a better negotiating position ahead of what he says will be brokered talks between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia after inauguration in two months’ time.
Additional reading:
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Pacific
SecDef visited a South China Sea island to show U.S. support for its regional ally the Philippines, Defense One’s Bradley Peniston reported Tuesday on location. That location is known as WESCOM, or the Western Command of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. It sits on the island of Palawan, some 200 miles off the main Philippine archipelago.
From this camp of low buildings under rows of towering palm trees, WESCOM directs and supports the joint forces that keep tabs on and maintain a presence in the waters to the west, Peniston writes. One young officer in the lobby said he’d spent seven months on one of the outposts that dot the sea.
Big-picture consideration: The past three months have seen an uptick in Chinese aggression, U.S. and Philippine officials said. “They have been more aggressive in denying us access to our exclusive economic zone in the West Philippine Sea. They have really placed a lot of these pseudo-military vessels disguised as Coast Guard vessels and maritime militia vessels in the areas of the West Philippine Sea. They have been very aggressive in their information operations against the Philippines,” Manila’s Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro told reporters.
While at WESCOM, SecDef Austin visited a brand-new intelligence-fusion center and received a demonstration of an uncrewed surface vessel, both purchased with U.S. security-assistance funds. Read the rest, here.
Additional reading:
Industry
Lastly today: U.S. satellite suppliers are struggling to meet the Pentagon’s timelines for its plans to build a network of hundreds of military satellites in low-Earth orbit. And now the first set of operational satellites in the Space Development Agency’s big plans aren’t expected for another six months, Defense One’s Audrey Decker reported Tuesday.
The program is called the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture. Its first satellites were supposed to begin launching in September; but SDA Director Derek Tournear said that will now be delayed until March or April.
“It’s clear that a lot of the subcontractors, they weren’t able to scale up as quickly as they had, and we’ve been working very closely with them,” Tournear said at an event hosted by the Mitchell Institute in Virginia on Tuesday. “We have put contracts in place with some of those subcontractors to help incentivize them, to build them up,” he said.
SDA is also looking into possible work with SpaceX since Elon Musk’s company “can launch faster than once a month,” Tournear said. “The space vehicles will be ready faster than that once we start the initial launching, but it’s just a matter of how fast will it take us to get through launch and early operations,” he told the audience.
Why the hurry? The U.S. already has a constellation of satellites for missile warning and tracking, which detects launches and follows weapons as they maneuver, Decker reports. But now, SDA wants new missile tracking satellites that can direct interceptors as well, Tournear said. Continue reading, here.
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