For an image-conscious country that prides itself as a major tourist hub and destination, the apparent terrorist murder of Chabad emissary Rabbi Zvi Kogan thrust the United Arab Emirates into international headlines for all the wrong reasons on Sunday.
The UAE wants to be known for iconic landmarks such as the Burj Khalifa, the Dubai Mall, and the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque. It wants to be seen as secure and stable, not a place where Iran sends a hit squad – as Israeli authorities suspect – to kill an identifiable Israeli Jew.
The last time Dubai was thrust into the headlines following an assassination was in January 2010, when Hamas terrorist Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was killed in a Dubai hotel.
Back then, Dubai police chief Dhahi Khalfan Tamim gained worldwide acclaim for cracking the case and linking it to the Mossad by uncovering passport forgery of multiple Australian and European passports allegedly used by Mossad agents to kill Mabhouh.
The killing had a chilling effect on Israeli-UAE ties, setting them back a number of years until they were established under the Abraham Accords in 2020. It also dismantled perceptions of Dubai as a soft target, signaling the country’s readiness to defend its sovereignty and keep other countries from using its territory to settle scores.
It will be interesting to see whether Dubai acts with the same determination and resolve in solving the Kogan murder case and whether its relations with Iran – which of late it has been trying to repair – will be set back to the same degree as its ties were with Israel following the Mabhouh affair.
One thing is clear: This is a critical test for the resilience of the Abraham Accords.
Before addressing this test, it’s worth noting how the war in Gaza, despite inflaming anti-Israel sentiment across the Arab world, has yet to derail Israel-UAE relations. Calls for the Emirates to sever ties, even coming from within the UAE, have not fundamentally shaken the partnership.
Take trade, for example. One could imagine that as a result of the war, trade with the UAE – Israel’s most significant trading partner among the Abraham Accord countries – would have taken a hit.
On the contrary, trade with the UAE in the first three quarters of 2024 has outpaced the record-breaking level of 2023, with $2.4 billion of trade from January through September of this year, compared with $2.3b. for the same period last year. Interestingly, Israeli exports, which this year make up only 14% of the mutual trade, are down some 6% since last year.
The murder of Kogan, however, could have dramatic ramifications on the relationship, ranging from perhaps a chilling effect on the business relationship, on one side of the spectrum, to bringing the countries closer together on intelligence sharing, on the other.
Why would Kogan’s murder impact the business relationship?
Concerns over safety, for instance, may deter Israeli businesspeople from traveling to the UAE, particularly after Israel’s National Security Council advised on Sunday against nonessential visits to a country that hosted a million Israeli visitors between 2020 and 2023.
The murder may lead to heightened security concerns for Israeli businesses operating in the UAE, potentially causing some companies to reassess their presence or expansion plans in the region.
Beyond tourism and business, the UAE’s burgeoning Jewish community – nurtured with official encouragement since the Abraham Accords – may retreat from public visibility. Fear-driven security measures could push Jewish life into private settings, reversing years of progress in cultivating a vibrant, open community.
Another ripple effect from the murder might be changing perceptions in both countries about the relationship. Israelis, who were enamored of the “warm” peace that seemed to develop with the UAE, may conclude that things are not as warm as they appeared to be, or actually were, just a couple of years ago.
Popular government
And inside the UAE, where the relationship was always much more popular among the government and the elites than on the street, this attack could embolden those opposed to ties with Israel to demand a reassessment, saying that the relationship invites attacks inside the UAE itself and complicates an already very complicated relationship with Iran.
If Iran is indeed implicated in the incident, Jerusalem will certainly urge the UAE to take significant steps against Tehran or those responsible. These demands could strain the UAE’s delicate balancing act with Iran, reawaken domestic debates over the value of the Abraham Accords, and ripple across the region.
Other Arab states weighing normalization with Israel, such as Saudi Arabia, might see this as a cautionary tale, reinforcing hesitancy to deepen ties because of the concern that to do so would be to open their territory up to Iranian operations against Israeli or Jewish targets.
The incident also could have far-reaching security repercussions. If Iran was behind it, it would signal an escalation in operations against Jewish and Israeli targets beyond Israel’s borders, particularly in an area that was previously considered pretty secure. Israel will have to decide how to respond.
Furthermore, the alleged use of Uzbeks, if this proves to be accurate, shows as well that the Iranians are interested in using foreign operatives – often criminal elements – as a calculated strategy to maintain plausible deniability.
Iran’s ability to execute such a high-profile attack inside the UAE also calls into question the UAE’s internal security capabilities. The upside would be if this would lead to enhanced Israeli-Emirati intelligence cooperation, potentially involving the US as a partner.
This type of cooperation could reinforce the Abraham Accords, but it would also spotlight the complex security challenges that come with these new relationships.
The murder of Kogan represents not only yet another tragic loss to Israel and the Jewish community in this multifront war that began on October 7, but also an incident that could have far-reaching implications for the region.
