Get Ready For a ‘Wartime Scenario’ in Europe and Be Wary of Russia and China, Top NATO Officer Warns
Europeans must be ready to sacrifice some “luxuries” to pay to support Ukraine and to prevent a “wartime scenario” coming to the nations of the continent if they are insufficiently prepared, NATO’s most senior military officer said in a speech namechecking both Russia and China as threats.
NATO’s Admiral Rob Bauer, the Dutch naval officer who is chair of the NATO Military Committee addressed a conference of the European Policy Centre think tank on Monday, and while asserting the alliance is more ready now “than it has ever been”, delivered a somewhat pessimistic message of the need for preparedness for conflict. In a speech aimed at businesses across the alliance, the Admiral outlined that businesses had to be ready for war, but by improving their readiness they also reduced the likelihood of future fighting by improving NATO’s level of deterrence.
The scale of spending needed to keep the peace in Europe is such that ordinary people would feel the pinch in the pocketbook, Admiral Bauer said, calling on politicians to provide strong leadership to make the case this is necessary to voters. He said: “if you ramp up your deterrence and if you ramp up support to Ukraine, there will be less money to spend on other things. It will take away some of our luxuries, it will require sacrifice.”
Also implied is the extra cost on businesses, making a shift away from efficient, cost-cutting but fragile ‘just in time’ models to more robust practices to make businesses in America and Europe more insulated to shock. This itself increases the deterrence of NATO to its adversaries, he said, because knowing Western economies can’t be knocked over by the hybrid warfare of a sudden supply shock denies that weapon to those who would weaponise trade.
While the present adversary is Russia, wise economies would also be seeking to reduce their dependence on China, Admiral Bauer said, reminding listeners that the vast majority of strategic imports like rare earth minerals and essential medicines are made there.
He said:
[Euro and American businesses should ask themselves] is my company or organisation ready for war? What can my company or organisation do to prevent war?
That question might surprise some people, but if we can ensure that all goods and services can be delivered no matter what, then that is a key part of our deterrence… when it comes to great power competition all instruments of power can and will be used, we are seeing that in a growing number of sabotage acts. And Europe has seen that with energy supply.
We thought we had a deal with Gazprom, but we actually had a deal with Mr Putin. The same goes for Chinese-owned infrastructure and goods, we actually have a deal with Xi… we are naïve if we think the Communist Party will never use that power
Businesses need to “be prepared for a wartime scenario”, Admiral Bauer told the conference, intoning that war and preventing war is a “whole-of-society event”, stating: “while it may be the military that wins battles, it is the economy which wins wars”.
While the warnings to Western societies are stark, they comments are not out of character for Admiral Bauer who as the top military officer inside the NATO alliance headquarters works to improve the readiness and deterrence of the signatory states. Part of this push, he has explained, is about rebalancing the alliance so European countries contribute more to their own defence.
Breitbart reported in January when Admiral Bauer spoke not on the responsibility of businesses to contribute to the total defence but of individuals. again speaking of the “whole-of-society” event of a major war, he said the era where Western-fought wars are remote from civilian life is over.
As reported then:
A visibly agitated Baurer responded to one journalist accusing military leaders of attempting to frighten the public with their announcements, the press writer citing a Swedish general telling the public that war is coming and they should be ready for it had led to “panic buying” of self-preparedness items. Bauer said if the public are “surprised” to suddenly discover they are to be part of a whole-of-society effort to repel Russian aggression then “that’s great”.
The admiral responded to the question that this shock could spur individuals to become more prepared. He said in remarks likely meant for the public: “the people, they have to understand they play a role. Society is part of the solution… you need to have water, you need to have a radio on batteries, you need to have a flashlight with batteries to make sure you can survive the first 36 hours. Things like that, that’s simple things but it starts there.”
“I’m not going to say everything is going to go wrong tomorrow, but we have to realise it is not a given that we are in peace”, the NATO military boss said, saying there had to be a wider societal realisation that: “not everything is plannable, not everything is going to be hunky-dory for the next 20 years.”
While Admiral Bauer’s statements may seem alarming, others yet shout louder about the possibility of wider war coming to Europe. Poland, which would very much be in the firing line should Russia decide their Ukraine war had gone so well they’d try it again somewhere else, has been first among NATO nations in this regard, with the head of their National Security Bureau saying in December Europe has just three years to get ready.
This is the time Russia needs “to reconstitute its army”, he said, expressing the Polish view that if NATO is to successfully deter further Russian aggression it had to be able to show it could stand up to another invasion quickly.
Professor Katarzyna Pisarska of the Warsaw Security Forum also spoke to these points, articulating Admiral Bauer’s assertion that Europe would have to sacrifice some luxuries to fund its militaries to transform them into credible forces that Russia would not care to confront. She said “this lifestyle, the focus on the welfare state, on prosperity under the American protective umbrella” may become unsustainable under the cost burden of keeping freedom free, and told a German newspaper:
When do preparations for this scenario need to begin? They should have started yesterday… We can, like Emmanuel Macron, speak of “European autonomy”. But what does that mean? Can France station 10,000 soldiers in Poland tomorrow? Can Germany effectively defend NATO’s eastern flank? Credible deterrence is needed. We currently only have that with the Americans.
