The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon that took effect early on Wednesday poses difficult scenarios for the countries mediating the deal, particularly for the US, for which the incoming Trump administration will inherit the progress of months of delicate, complex negotiations.
Under the agreement between Israel and Lebanon, the US has assumed responsibility for maintaining calm along one of the Middle East’s most volatile borders. This task is further complicated by the transition between US administrations, with the transfer of power set to occur within the ceasefire’s initial 60-day period.
The ceasefire outlines a transitional period during which the Israeli military will withdraw from southern Lebanon. Simultaneously, the Lebanese army will deploy its soldiers to border regions, while Hezbollah is required to relocate its heavy weaponry north of the Litani River.
A US-led oversight committee will monitor the implementation of the agreement and address violations. To reassure its ally, the US provided Israel with a letter of assurances allowing the IDF to respond, in ways that are compliant with international law, to direct threats from Lebanese territory.
How did the deal come into effect?
Efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah began months ago. A US-French initiative announced in September collapsed almost immediately when Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Though the US welcomed the outcome, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to act without notifying President Joe Biden beforehand led to tensions between the leaders.
Renewed efforts spearheaded by Biden’s envoy Amos Hochstein gained traction in mid-October. Hochstein mediated between Israel and Lebanon, addressing Israel’s demands for strict enforcement against Hezbollah’s rearmament and its operational freedom to respond to future threats. Talks progressed quickly, instilling confidence in Washington that a deal was within reach.
On October 31, just days before the US presidential election, Hochstein visited Israel to meet with Netanyahu. According to senior US officials, Netanyahu believed that both Israel and Lebanon shared interests in achieving a ceasefire.
Five days after the US elections, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer briefed President-elect Donald Trump on the negotiations during a meeting at Mar-a-Lago. Trump signaled support for the agreement, encouraging Netanyahu to finalize the deal before the new administration took office.
Hochstein, other Biden officials overcoming obstacles
In the days that followed, Hochstein and other senior officials, including US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, worked closely with Israeli and Lebanese representatives to overcome obstacles. One contentious issue was Israel’s insistence on retaining the right to respond to Hezbollah violations. French opposition to this demand momentarily threatened the deal, but direct intervention by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken with French President Emmanuel Macron helped resolve the disagreement.
By late November, the agreement was nearly complete. However, tensions rose again when the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Netanyahu, disrupting negotiations. It took personal intervention by Biden and a US threat to withdraw from mediation efforts to bring the negotiations back on track. The Israeli cabinet approved the deal within 36 hours of its finalization.
The agreement’s success now hinges on the Lebanese army’s deployment in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah’s compliance in withdrawing its heavy weaponry north of the Litani River. Unlike in 2006, when international efforts waned after initial implementation, this current agreement includes a sustained US role. American officers and diplomats will oversee compliance from the US Embassy in Beirut, working with UN, French, Israeli, and Lebanese officials to address any violations.
While no US troops will be stationed along the border, the agreement allows Israel to act against direct threats if necessary. US officials remain hopeful that the oversight mechanism will prevent violations from escalating. A senior official emphasized the importance of constant vigilance, stating, “We want a real-time hotline to address violations immediately. If we stay focused, direct interventions will be rare.”
In fewer than 60 days, the Trump administration will inherit this fragile agreement.
Trump’s team has argued that Hezbollah agreed to the ceasefire, recognizing that terms would likely worsen under his leadership. Whether the deal holds will depend on effective international coordination and disciplined implementation in the coming weeks.
