Rebuilding the military strength Syria had before Israel’s strikes during Operation “Bashan Arrow” earlier this week would take the new Syrian government years and cost billions of dollars.
Over the years, the Syrian army possessed significant military power, posing a potential threat to Israel.
In response to the aerial superiority Israel displayed during the First Lebanon War in 1982, Hafez al-Assad shifted the focus from the air force and armored corps to missile forces and the development of chemical weapons.
The Syrian air defense system included over 100 batteries of long-range SA-5 and S-300 missiles, mobile BUK-M1/2 and Pantsir systems, and other such ordnance. One of the SA-5 anti-aircraft batteries even succeeded in downing an Israeli Lockheed F-16I fighter jet in 2021. These, too, are no longer operational, along with radar installations, electronic warfare systems, intelligence bases, and more.
The Syrians had hundreds of surface-to-surface missiles, such as Scuds, and thousands of rockets, which, according to footage, have now been destroyed in Israel Air Force strikes.
IAF aircraft strike Syrian military targets across Syria, December 10, 2024. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Simultaneously, the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) in Damascus, a front for missile and rocket development and production activities, was also destroyed.
Until last week, the Syrian air force had 30 MiG-29 aircraft. In addition, before the outbreak of the civil war, it also possessed approximately 150 fighter and attack aircraft, including MIG-21, MIG-23, and Sukhoi Su-22s, as well as 18 medium-range attack Sukhoi Su-24 aircraft.
Despite being neglected during the war, at least half of them were likely operational until recently.
On record, the Syrians also had about 50 Mil Mi-17 transport helicopters and around 30 attack helicopters, including Mil Mi-24 models and French-made Aérospatiale Gazelle helicopters, which are no longer able to fly.
The price of a new Mikoyan MiG-35, the current version of the MiG-29, which Iran is now purchasing, is approximately $70–80 million. A mobile Pantsir missile system designed to counter aircraft, helicopters, and drones currently costs $15 million per unit.
Rebuilding an array of dozens of batteries, including interceptor stockpiles, spare parts, and crew training, would require around $1 billion. The cost of weaponry must be added to the expenses of rebuilding destroyed bases, recruiting personnel, and training them.
Even if Iran seeks closer ties with the new government and wishes to equip it with operational equipment of its own production, the costs would be enormous for a country already struggling to finance its economy and sustain significant military investments.
Aid from Russia, Iran and North Korea
It would take Russia or Iran more than a decade to rebuild the Syrian army, even if funding were available. North Korea could also serve as a source for renewing parts of the Syrian military, particularly missiles and construction projects, but only in exchange for payment.
After the Six-Day War, the Soviet Union rearmed and trained the Syrian army, supplying hundreds of fighter jets and thousands of tanks to replace those destroyed in the war. By the Yom Kippur War, just six years later, it had become larger and stronger. However, Russia is not the Soviet Union of that era, especially as it is now embroiled in the war in Ukraine and forced to purchase missiles, ammunition, and drones from Iran and North Korea.
This does not mean that Syria cannot pose a threat to Israel.
On October 7, Hamas demonstrated that an invasion is possible even without an air force or an armored corps.
The rebels who took over Damascus are jihadist fighters with considerable military experience gained during the civil war, which could potentially be directed against Israel.
However, the scenario of Syrian armored columns supported by missiles once again invading the Golan, against which the IDF trained and developed weaponry, remains unlikely for years to come.
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