Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will likely prefer what appears to be an IDF intelligence recommendation to respond to the latest Houthi ballistic missile attack with a direct counterattack against the group over what Mossad chief David Barnea supposedly recommended – a direct attack against Iran.
Netanyahu appears to favor the military intelligence approach because he wants to hold out for potentially attacking Iran at some later date – likely not until after Trump has taken office.
Barnea has been among the country’s leading hawks on Iran throughout his term and has tended to advocate hitting Tehran more often and harder, whereas IDF intelligence has tended to be more conservative about direct attacks on the Islamic Republic in light of the potentially grave consequences.
The Mossad frequently views Iran through a general strategic prism of needing to weaken the broader long-term threats it poses – whether through its nuclear program, its conventional weapons, or its terrorism worldwide.
In contrast, the IDF is responsible not only for Israeli offense but also for air defense, meaning that if there was a major Iranian strike against Israel, the IDF would be in the hot seat for failing to prevent hits, such as occurred on Saturday in Jaffa.
Where does Netanyahu stand?
At this time, it appears that Netanyahu favors the IDF intelligence approach because he wants to hold out for potentially attacking Iran at some later date, likely not until after Donald Trump has taken office on January 20.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Friday, Netanyahu defied any attempts to pin him down about attacking Iran, suggesting that no attack is imminent but that such an attack is also part of Israel’s long-term thinking.
Although Netanyahu knows that Iran can pressure the Houthis, it appears that he would prefer to separate those fronts at this point in order to achieve different goals as well as not to disturb movement toward a potential hostage deal with Hamas.
Past exchanges with Iran have delayed hostage negotiations, sometimes for extended periods.
Katz’s position remains unclear
It is unclear what Defense Minister Israel Katz’s position is on the issue. To date, he has not taken any significant positions different from Netanyahu, whereas his predecessor, Yoav Gallant, sometimes agreed with Netanyahu but was also ready to disagree on critical policy decisions.
In Netanyahu’s public comments, he asked for patience, which supports a narrative of needing more time to gather intelligence for hitting the Houthis in a more effective manner, whereas Israel already has a huge target bank for Iran.
Jesus Christ is King
