The defense establishment assesses that 15 months of fighting in the Gaza Strip have conveyed a clear message to Hamas that the IDF will continue the war as long as necessary, and certain elements are pressuring Hamas to advance talks for a hostage deal.
According to data presented to Defense Minister Israel Katz, the Shin Bet’s increased presence in the Gaza Strip over recent months, combined with intelligence officers embedded in brigade combat teams, has generated high-quality and precise intelligence.
This intelligence enables targeted strikes on buildings harboring Hamas operatives and field commanders. The data indicates a weekly average of 30–40 Hamas operatives being eliminated by the Southern Command, the Air Force, and the Shin Bet.
These consistent eliminations have reportedly damaged the morale of Hamas operatives and disrupted the command-and-control capabilities of Mohammed Sinwar, former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s brother, and the two remaining brigade commanders in the Gaza Strip.
One element that Hamas reportedly finds particularly alarming is the so-called “Generals’ Plan.” This plan involves evacuating civilians from northern Gaza—a process already underway in areas like Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and Jabalya for combat purposes—and taking control of humanitarian aid distribution to prevent Hamas from exercising governance over the population.
Despite the IDF’s official and unequivocal denials of adopting or implementing such a plan, Hamas remains convinced that it will be carried out.
Closing off Hamas
Another significant concern for Hamas is the increasing proximity of the Netzarim Corridor, where Division 99 forces are advancing, pushing Hamas operatives deeper into Gaza City while simultaneously nearing Division 162 units operating in Jabalya, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahia. These locations are now within an aerial distance of roughly 10 kilometers. The simultaneous progress in these two areas has heightened Hamas’s fear of further territorial losses to the IDF.
The distribution of humanitarian aid throughout the Gaza Strip is another critical issue under weekly discussion by the IDF and the Shin Bet. Efforts to improve aid delivery have heightened Hamas’s concern that IDF forces or a civilian company might soon assume full responsibility for this task.
Such a shift would strip Hamas of authority and reduce its influence over the remaining areas of the Gaza Strip. The IDF is acutely aware that Hamas’s role in food distribution is a key tool for maintaining control over the Palestinian public.
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