The D Brief: Allies reel over annexation talk; Ukraine donors set production goals; Navy’s plans/funding mismatch; Iran’s painful admission; And a bit more.
SecDef Austin’s last trip to Europe
America’s European allies are reeling from President-elect Trump’s talk of annexing Greenland and Canada, Defense One’s Patrick Tucker reports from the Pentagon-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which met today in Germany.
The view from Berlin: “It’s a little bit—let me express that diplomatically—astonishing to read things like that and to hear in television,” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters. “I don’t know what his objectives are to do [annex Greenland], but anyway, alliances are alliances and stay alliances regardless of who’s governing countries. Otherwise it would be only something like communities or whatever else.”
Kaja Kallas, foreign affairs chief of the European Union Commission: “I spoke to [Denmark’s] Prime Minister Frederickson yesterday, and I mean, she assured [me] that Danish and American relations have been very good. And she also said that it’s good that the President-elect takes interest in [the] Arctic, which is a very important region both for the security but also for the climate change. So this is, this is good. And of course, Greenland is part of Denmark. So this is what also she said—we have to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty” of nations.
Canada’s Defense Minister Bill Blair called Trump’s comments on Canada “deeply concerning and in many respects, profoundly disappointing,” he told reporters. “And I would hope that the United States would recognize the value of…Canada as neighbor, as an ally, as a friend and as a partner,” he said. “We work so collaboratively together not to be able to ignore that in the defense of North America, we have always stood side by side together. Our economies, our national interests, our people are deeply united, and I would hope that that relationship would be respected by our closest friend.”
Ukraine’s donors are working to systematize military aid deliveries. The members of the Ukraine-aid coordination group have agreed goals for production of arms and equipment for donation to the besieged country, the Pentagon’s acquisition chief said Thursday.
That will enable national armaments directorates to make plans to provide weapons to Ukraine on a schedule, rather than in occasional pledges, William LaPlante, U.S. acquisition defense undersecretary, said in a conversation with reporters at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany. Pledges, he said, are “interesting. But you gotta get real.”
The goals emerged from a year-long “capability coalition” effort to coordinate foreign military aid to Ukraine, build up the country’s own industrial base, and ensure that the newest equipment is moving to front lines. On Thursday, eight such coalitions, led by Ukraine and 14 donor nations, endorsed a series of roadmaps to guide aid through 2027, Patrick Tucker writes from Germany.
At the meeting, the Pentagon detailed a $500 million military-aid package, which CNN called the Biden administration’s “final” aid to Ukraine before Trump takes office.
This package includes AIM-7, RIM-7, and AIM-9M missiles for high-demand air defense systems; unspecified “air-to-ground munitions,” and “equipment to support Ukraine’s use of F-16s,” the Defense Department said in a statement.
The view from Kyiv: “It would honestly be crazy to drop the ball now,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the members of the contact group Thursday. Zelenskyy highlighted Ukraine’s continued need for drones and other munitions, but he and other European leaders are already planning for the possibility that U.S. leadership of the Ukraine support effort vanishes.
“Production of drones in Ukraine is more cost-effective than anywhere else,” Zelenskyy said Thursday. “We are focusing on drones that our brigades need to hold the front lines, and drones essential for ensuring security, like maritime drones and drones made for deep strikes on the enemy’s military facilities and infrastructure in their territory,” he said.
New: Canada announced it will give $100 million to help Ukraine rapidly build its own drones under a so-called “Danish Model” where countries contribute to Ukraine’s domestic weapons manufacturing rather than pull from their stockpiles. Blair also announced $200 million to help Ukraine acquire weapons under a Czech initiative pulling from various countries.
The Brits also made a £190 million pledge Thursday to help Ukraine acquire an estimated 30,000 new drones. Read on, here.
Update: Russia has dropped more than 51,000 guided bombs on Ukraine since the start of the invasion nearly three years ago, Ukraine’s air force announced Thursday.
About 40,000 fell in just the past year, the air force said on Telegram. “Most of them fell on Ukrainian soldiers and residents of front-line regions. However, the enemy has repeatedly used this deadly weapon against civilians in large cities,” the service added.
Developing: Trump has abandoned his promise to resolve Russia’s Ukraine invasion in 24 hours. “I hope to have six months,” the president-elect said at his free-wheeling press conference Tuesday in Florida. And on Wednesday, a top Trump aide, retired Army three-star Keith Kellogg, told Fox he hopes a ceasefire can be brokered within the first 100 days of the new administration.
Forecast: “Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months…if there is not soon a large new infusion of aid from the United States,” Robert Kagan of the Brookings Institution warned Tuesday, writing for The Atlantic. “Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.”
“Trump must now choose between accepting a humiliating strategic defeat on the global stage and immediately redoubling American support for Ukraine while there’s still time,” Kagan advises. “The choice he makes in the next few weeks will determine not only the fate of Ukraine but also the success of his presidency.” Read on, here.
Second opinion: “The incoming [Trump] administration will inherit a few billion dollars’ worth of authority to donate weapons, enough to continue meeting Ukraine’s needs for some months,” John Hardie of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies tells The D Brief. “Eventually, though, Congress will need to pass another assistance package or else see America’s ability to aid Ukraine—and thus its negotiating leverage—rapidly diminish. This would encourage Russian intransigence,” he warns.
“To maximize his chances of brokering a good and durable peace deal, President Trump should push a ‘Ukraine leverage’ package through Congress without delay while also tightening sanctions on Russia,” says Hardie.
Related reading:
Welcome to this Thursday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson, Bradley Peniston, and Patrick Tucker. Share your newsletter tips, reading recommendations, or feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1918, the “last battle of the American Indian Wars” took place near the U.S.-Mexico border, pitting Buffalo soldiers of the U.S. Army’s 10th Cavalry against the indigenous Yaquis tribesmen of Arizona’s Bear Valley.
Around the Defense Department
Pentagon officials are devising new plans to defend air bases worldwide. They are aiming to foster collaboration across the military services, rather than relying solely on the Army, the traditional provider of short-range air defense,” Defense One’s Audrey Decker writes.
Can satellite buses be mass-manufactured rather than bespoke? One California startup is giving it a shot, Decker reports off a trip to a Los Angeles factory floor.
Additional reading:
Mideast
Israel’s top three defense companies “are on pace to sell more weapons than ever,” the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday from Tel Aviv. Those three companies include Elbit Systems, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries. “Together, the three companies have seen an increase of more than 25% in their collective backlogs—or orders to be fulfilled in the future…to the equivalent of $63 billion in the first three-quarters of 2024” compared to the previous year, Dov Lieber of the Journal writes. “For all of 2023, the collective backlog grew by 23% from the year-prior, which was a record at the time,” he added.
The country’s top attention-getting systems are the Iron Dome and Arrow air defense weapons, as well as “defensive systems for tanks,” all of which have been tested over the last year-plus of war in Gaza and Lebanon. However, “Israel will still need to recruit at least 6,000 more employees in the defense industry to meet the future demands,” one expert said. Read on, here.
Related reading: “Iran Was ‘Defeated Very Badly’ in Syria, a Top General Admits,” the New York Times reported Wednesday from a “candid” speech delivered last week.
Etc.
Lastly today: A home built by a soldier who served under George Washington is available for $1.2 million in Long Island, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday for its Luxury Homes section. The owners bought the 3,000-square foot home for $236,000 in 1989, and added to it in the years since. It still has the original wood floorboards and hand-hewn ceiling beams. Details and photographs, here.
Jesus Christ is King
