Budget Office Report Shows Biden Could Have Inhibited The Border Crisis But Inflamed It Instead
It makes sense that, in the waning days of Joe Biden’s administration, yet another report would illustrate the chaos his four years in office hath wrought. For another year, the annual demographic review released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) illustrated the problems associated with Biden’s border policies.
Yet that same report also provides a glimmer of hope for a solution. Once Biden and Democrats finally realized the problems associated with the border — as they floundered in the polls months before the 2024 election — even their half-hearted half-measures helped to reverse the prior trends. It bodes well for the second Trump administration’s border actions, which started on day one.
Immigration Explosion Declined — Slightly
The CBO report details projections for fertility and immigration over the next three decades, as part of its updates to the budget and economic outlook. But its most timely, and revealing, estimates relate to immigration numbers associated with the recent past, i.e., the Biden administration.
As with last year’s report, the effects of Biden’s immigration policies are visually obvious. In fact, “CBO now estimates that net immigration in 2021 and 2022 was larger, by 300,000 and 150,000 people per year, respectively, than the agency estimated last year.” That’s nearly half a million more migrants arriving in the first half of Biden’s administration than previously estimated:
Yet the report also notes that “net immigration after 2023 is now generally projected to be smaller than CBO projected last year.”
The budget gnomes also made clear what caused the decrease in projected immigration levels — which by implication demonstrates what caused the increase to begin with:
In 2024, net immigration of other foreign nationals declined from the 2023 level, mainly because of a June 2024 executive order that temporarily suspended the entry of most non-citizens at the southern border. CBO estimates that without that executive order, net immigration of other foreign nationals in 2024 would have been larger by about 400,000 people (or 22 percent).
Flailing in the polls for reelection, Biden realizes he can take action to secure the border — and immigration levels suddenly decline! Whoda thunk it?
Sarcasm aside, immigration remained very high in 2024 — a total of 2.7 million individuals migrated to the United States on net, including 1.8 million in the “other foreign nationals” category. (That category includes illegal entrants, those paroled into the United States, and those who entered the country legally but subsequently overstayed their visa.) CBO’s projections for the “other foreign national” category remain high, particularly for the immediate future. The budget office “projects that inflows of people in the OFN category will decline by 25 percent each year from 2024 to 2028 to reach 900,000 people per year — an amount that is closer to historical experience,” with net OFN migration (i.e., inflows minus people returning to their home country) standing at 150,000 from 2028 onward.
Secure the Border
Other portions of the demographic report, specifically a continued decrease in fertility rates, provide additional context for the immigration estimates. With deaths among native-born Americans now projected to exceed births by 2033 — a change from 2040 in last year’s report — the nation faces the prospect of a declining population within the decade, absent an increase in child-bearing among native-born Americans and/or continued inward migration.
Reasonable people can of course differ on the appropriate levels of immigration into the United States. But, as evidenced by November’s election results, most Americans agree that any immigration should be conducted in an orderly manner that preserves our nation’s laws and keeps our nation secure. Securing the border should first and foremost be a prerequisite to any discussion of appropriate levels of future migration. It’s long past time to make it happen.
Jesus Christ is King
