Editor’s note: This story was updated at 7:10 p.m. to reflect that Trump addressed the Davos Forum virtually.
NATO members should dramatically increase their defense spending from the current guideline of 2 percent of GDP to 5 percent, President Donald Trump said Thursday. But even a smaller increase could help Ukraine, and could benefit U.S. armsmakers as well, according to a former senior White House official.
“I’m also going to ask all NATO nations to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, which is what it should have been years ago,” Trump said in a virtual address at the Davos Forum.
NATO established the 2% guideline at the 2014 Wales Summit, not long after Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, and members began upping their contributions at then-President Obama’s urging in 2016. But Trump moved beyond cajoling in 2018 with threats to withdraw from the alliance.
On the campaign trail over the summer, Trump floated a 3-percent target, which has since been mentioned by Angus Lapsley, the alliance’s assistant secretary general for defence policy and planning, and more recently by Secretary General Mark Rutte. In December, an official told the Financial Times in December that Trump would use 5 percent as a starting point for negotiations, but would likely accept 3.5 percent.
If the United States increased its own defense spending from the current 3.4 percent of GDP to 5 percent, that would result in a defense budget of about $1.3 trillion, FOX’s Jennifer Griffin pointed out on X. Trump did not mention any increase in U.S. defense spending during his remarks. But his comments are perhaps best understood when taken together with his previous complaints that other NATO member spend less in absolute terms. Last year, for instance, the United States allocated almost $967 billion to defense, while Germany allocated $97 billion.
However, Trump is committed to continuing to provide weapons aid for Ukraine, the Times reported. And that provides a clue into how a big increase in NATO defense spending might help both Ukraine and the United States.
A former senior White House official who is familiar with discussions between former President Joe Biden’s national security team and Trump’s, said the two teams were considering a plan where the United States would provide needed arms to Ukraine, but NATO members would absorb the costs.
The United States has been the largest contributor of weapons to Ukraine, providing some $46 billion in military aid: Patriot missiles, HIMARS long-range fires, 155mm ammunition rounds, and more. European allies have also provided 155mm rounds, as well as tanks, guns, and other weapons, but their donations are far outpaced by the United States’.
However, continuing to arm and support Ukraine is a key objective for NATO members, Rutte said this week, to prevent a security crisis in Europe that could cost “trillions.”
Said the former senior White House official, “Fundamentally, it’s going to have to be the American defense-industrial base continuing to power the fight if Ukraine is going to stay in it. And I think the best answer would be that we provide the stuff and then continue to replace it with dollars allocated by the Europeans.”
When Defense One asked the official whether the Trump national-security team is receptive to the idea, the official replied, “I would just say that there are real voices inside the Trump team that would like to see the continuation of support to Ukraine, but are also mindful of the fact that they don’t want it to come out, out of the American taxpayers.”
Representatives from the current administration did not respond to requests for comment.
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