US President Donald Trump’s approach to Iran will seemingly focus on diplomacy over military conflict to address its nuclear program and broader regional issues, Dr. Shay Har-Zvi told Maariv on Monday.
Har-Zvi, a senior researcher at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University and a former director-general of the Strategic Affairs Ministry outlined how this approach impacts the Middle East.
“President Trump’s statement that it ‘would be nice’ to resolve issues with Iran through diplomacy wasn’t offhand,” Har-Zvi said. “He consistently emphasizes that one of his main goals is ‘to end wars, not to start them.’ This is especially significant when it comes to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”
Har-Zvi noted that Trump’s diplomatic preference is longstanding. “Even after the unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, Trump sought a better agreement by leveraging economic pressure on Tehran instead of pursuing a military strike.”
Iranian leadership’s response
Iran’s leadership has taken note of this strategy, according to Har-Zvi. “The Iranian regime, likely with the approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, signals a willingness to consider a new nuclear agreement. This comes in the context of regional and domestic struggles, such as the weakening of Iran’s proxy network, the collapse of the Assad regime, and severe economic difficulties.”
Har-Zvi explained that recent developments have further heightened Iran’s vulnerability. “These challenges, coupled with Israel’s strike on Iran’s air defenses in October 2024 and lingering fears of Trump—who authorized the killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020—are exacerbating Iran’s sense of exposure to potential military action. The regime likely views negotiations as an opportunity to secure a reprieve from sanctions and the threat of military strikes.”
Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ approach
Har-Zvi highlighted Trump’s broader strategy, which combines economic and military pressure. “Trump is pursuing a ‘maximum pressure’ policy in two dimensions.
First, he aims to escalate economic sanctions, particularly targeting Iran’s energy sector and oil exports. Second, he is signaling that military options, including strikes on nuclear facilities, remain viable if negotiations fail. This reflects his belief in achieving favorable outcomes by demonstrating strength.”
“The key issue is whether the deal will robustly prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and roll back its program for years or if it will be a superficial agreement that delays the challenge temporarily,” Har-Zvi noted.
Lessons from the past, implications for Israel
Har-Zvi criticized the shortcomings of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). “The JCPOA was set to expire in 2030, leaving Iran without substantial oversight afterward. There’s concern that Trump may prioritize reaching an agreement, even at a cost, to secure a diplomatic win and avoid escalation.”
Israel must prepare for swift negotiations between the US and Iran, Har-Zvi advised. “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should focus on strengthening strategic and military coordination with the U.S. administration. Israel must stress the existential threat posed by a nuclear-capable Iran, given its extremist ideology and destructive capabilities.”
Har-Zvi urged Netanyahu to clearly outline Israel’s demands. “Netanyahu should present Israel’s non-negotiable requirements, including comprehensive restrictions on Iran’s ability to arm proxies, develop advanced missiles, and continue enriching uranium beyond 5%. These demands should be on the agenda in his expected February meeting with Trump.”
Recommendations for a robust deal
Har-Zvi concluded with concrete recommendations for a future agreement. “The deal must ensure the removal of all uranium enriched above 5%, dismantle advanced centrifuges, destroy various nuclear facilities, and include intrusive monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The agreement should either be indefinite or extend for several decades, with sanctions relief conditional on Iran’s full compliance. Simultaneously, Israel must prepare for the possibility of failed talks and develop contingency plans to address the nuclear threat.”
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