Hamas has used the hostage deal and ceasefire to create staged events during the hostage releases every week. These have led to harrowing images of crowds of men surrounding the hostages, filming them and jeering at them. This is designed by Hamas to showcase its sense of victory.
It used the handover of the five IDF women observer hostages especially to make it seem it was conducting a victory celebration. It erected a stage and made them walk among crowds of men and then receive a kind of plaque about their release.
Hamas has seen in the hostage deal a way to stage-manage its sense of victory. However, Hamas may soon face diminishing returns. This is important because some voices in Israel want Israel to returning to fighting in Gaza. The Hamas victory celebrations and use of the hostage handover to parade hostages, has led to anger in Israel. The sight of hundreds of armed Hamas members at these events reinforces the sense that Israel did not win the war.
Some people want Israel to go back into Gaza and take over neighborhoods again and force Gazans to flee and fight Hamas until it is fully defeated.
Hamas likely does not want to return to fighting. It wants the deal to continue into phase 2 and three. The goal for Hamas is to drag out the deal, but also to prevent the deal completely collapsing. Prior to the deal there was a growing push for Israel’s government to stop stalling and to finally agree to a deal that was on the table for most of the year.
The deal that incoming president Donald Trump pushed for in early January, sending his envoy Steve Witkoff to make it happen, was already one that had been on the table for a long time. Witkoff helped get it done, and it was primarily Israel’s leadership being more flexible that made it happen.
Israelis have seen images of the women hostages for fifteen months, around 480 days. It was the images of the IDF women observers being kidnapped from the Nahal Oz base, their bloodied faces, being dragged into Gaza by Hamas men, that resonated with many people in Israel. The strength of the five women who returned, Daniela Gilboa, Liri Albag, Naama Levy Agam Berger, Karina Ariev has also resonated across Israel. Hamas knew how important the young women were.
However, Hamas now faces a different challenge. As it releases more hostages it can’t hold parades every week because many people will tire of these images. When Hamas first conducted its handover many tuned in to watch. Hamas used this as a spectacle. But after this happens three or five times, many people may stop showing up to these Hamas events and Hamas will get less and less out of these events. This is because what begins with interest, tends to fade. Hamas can declare “victory” every week, but people will stop listening. Hamas can only squeeze this hostage deal so much.
Hamas’s dilemma
At some point Hamas will want the deal to go forward but it will also receive less and less credit for the deal. Hamas took so many hostages on October 7 that its ability to exploit this situation is diminishing. This is important to understand. The tables may turn a bit where Hamas will want the deal to continue and ask Doha to do whatever is possible to keep things going. In turn their will give Trump an opening to continue to showcase his ability to get deals done and bring wins.
Hamas knows that among the hostages it continues to hold are almost all men and some of the hostages are deceased. The overall number of deceased and living has not been clear for the last year.
However, Hamas understands its dilemma. Handing over bodies is not a picture of victory for Hamas. It can’t parade bodies on stage and give them a certificate the way it did with the young women hostages. Hamas already has overplayed its hand in this respect. Hamas has tried to showcase how holding young women and elderly men for 15 months was a victory. Many people see the images of the strong young women returning to Israel and the strength of the elderly men such as Gadi Mozes, and the Thai foreign workers. Thaenna Pongsak, Sathian Suwannakham, Sriaoun Watchara, Seathao Bannawat, and Lumnao Surasak; and people identify with the women, the older men and the Thai workers.
Hamas is losing the battle for its image and the public relations battle. Hamas faces diminishing returns in Gaza. It used the hostages and produced videos for a year. However, now Hamas needs the deal to continue. This is clearly an opening for Trump and the supporters of the deal to continue the ceasefire, but also pressure Hamas more.
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