Ukraine’s Rare Earth and Realpolitik
For years, American foreign aid has followed a simple, unquestioned rule: the United States gives, and a motley assortment of allies and opportunistic nation-states take. Aside from vague diplomatic assurances, billions in taxpayer dollars flow overseas with little expectation of return. Nowhere has this been more evident than in Ukraine.
The Biden White House poured billions upon billions into military, economic, and humanitarian aid without securing tangible benefits for American industry or security. Yet despite this massive commitment, there is little clarity on how much has actually reached Ukraine—or how effectively it has been used.
President Donald Trump has shattered this framework. Instead of continuing the blank-check approach, he has tied future U.S. support for Ukraine to something concrete: access to Ukraine’s untapped reserves of rare earth elements and its vast known deposits of other critical minerals—resources vital to national defense, high-tech industries, and the foundation of modern American life.
This isn’t just a policy shift on Ukraine—it indicates a fundamental rethinking of how America engages with allies and strategic partners. For President Trump, U.S. foreign and economic policy are intertwined, and both must serve American interests first and foremost. American assistance to an ally or would-be ally is not a right; it must be earned and reciprocal.
This markedly departs from the long-standing norms of American foreign policy—an approach that, over generations, has fostered its own culture of entitlement. In Washington, foreign aid is generally treated as a one-way street, with taxpayer dollars flowing outward to every corner of the globe. Trump’s shift marks the start of a new diplomatic approach, where U.S. support is given with clear conditions, not as an open-ended handout.
No More Free Passes: The End of Unconditional Foreign Aid
For decades, U.S. foreign policy followed a Marshall Plan template, treating aid as a one-way act of goodwill and expecting little return beyond diplomatic gestures. Trump’s approach flips that model on its head. U.S. investment of billions in military and financial aid must yield strategic advantages—both in the current conflict and in America’s long-term security and economic resilience.
His proposal follows a simple, common-sense principle: If the U.S. is investing in Ukraine’s survival, then Ukraine must invest in America’s future.
Why rare earths and other strategic minerals? Because these strategic resources power everything—from missile guidance systems and advanced fighter jets to semiconductors and electric vehicle batteries. Right now, the global supply chain is dominated by China and Russia, two nations that have weaponized resource control to undermine Western economies.
Under Trump’s proposal, Ukraine would receive continued American military support and become a key supplier of critical resources that the U.S. desperately needs.
This approach accomplishes three significant objectives:
- Weakening China’s rare earth dominance — Beijing controls 60% of global rare earth mining and over 85% of refining capacity. Securing an alternative source reduces American reliance on an adversarial regime.
- Undercutting Russia’s economic leverage — Moscow remains a major player in global nickel, titanium, and mineral exports. Bringing Ukrainian resources online disrupts Russia’s grip on critical global markets.
- Forcing Ukraine to be a strategic partner, not a permanent beneficiary — American taxpayers are not an ATM. Continued U.S. backing must require Ukraine to contribute to American interests rather than rely indefinitely on American generosity.
From Charity to Strategic Investment
Predictably, the usual suspects are in meltdown over Trump’s shift. To them, foreign aid—especially to Ukraine—is a moral obligation, not a strategic tool. But history proves transactional diplomacy isn’t a betrayal of alliances—it strengthens them.
Consider postwar Japan and Germany. U.S. aid rebuilt their economies with strict conditions, including deep structural reforms and explicit limits on their military capabilities. This arrangement made sense during the Cold War when the U.S. needed strong economic allies but preferred to maintain direct military control in key regions. That model worked as long as the Soviet threat justified forward-positioned American forces.
However, these restrictions have left both nations militarily dependent decades later, forcing the U.S. to shoulder security commitments that outlasted their original purpose. In a world where China is ascendant and global security challenges are more diffuse, this dependency strains U.S. resources, limits our ability to pivot toward emerging threats, and risks pulling America into regional conflicts where we have little strategic interest.
Contrast this with Israel and Poland, both of which have taken a different path. Israel receives U.S. support but has developed one of the world’s most advanced defense industries, allowing it to protect itself without relying on American troops. Poland has invested heavily in its security, emerging as one of NATO’s most committed defense spenders. Rather than relying on the U.S. as a permanent guarantor, both nations have used American support as a foundation to strengthen their military capabilities.
These examples demonstrate that when aid is structured to promote self-reliance, it can create stronger, more capable allies. But Ukraine is not being treated as an ally in the traditional sense—instead, it is treated as a cause—a moral litmus test, not a strategic calculation.
Instead of tying aid to measurable outcomes, Washington’s foreign policy class and its willing acolytes have framed Ukraine aid as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism, where any hesitation is cast as a betrayal of freedom itself. But this framing is deeply flawed. The world is not neatly—nor equally—divided into democracies and dictatorships. It is a far more complex arena where authoritarianism is the rule and democracy is the exception.
In such a world, free people must do more than reflexively “stand for democracy”—they must make strategic, deliberate choices that secure their future. Simply throwing resources at a cause because it aligns with our values is not a strategy; it’s sentimentality masquerading as policy. The real measure of leadership is knowing when, where, and how to engage in ways that strengthen, rather than overextend, America’s position.
This is the fundamental difference here. Trump’s approach rejects the idea that supporting Ukraine is a blank-check obligation and instead treats it as a strategic investment—one that must advance America’s interests, not just satisfy Washington’s ideological purity tests.
Ukraine’s Strategic Transformation
- Ukraine gains economic independence — By developing its critical minerals, Ukraine secures a vital revenue stream, which is crucial because the country will face a massive rebuilding effort when this war ends. This also reduces reliance on foreign assistance while strengthening Ukraine’s long-term defense capabilities.
- China and Russia face new economic pressure — Both nations have long exploited their dominance in critical mineral production to manipulate global markets. A strong Ukraine as a new supplier changes that equation.
- America secures a sustainable supply chain — Instead of scrambling for alternatives during a crisis or remaining dependent on geopolitical adversaries, the U.S. secures a reliable, long-term source of critical minerals.
The New Standard for American Foreign Policy
Simply put, Trump’s Ukraine policy isn’t a one-off tactical maneuver—it is a blueprint for how the U.S. should engage with allies in the future.
Foreign aid should no longer be charity but rather a strategic investment with measurable returns. Hence, any nation receiving U.S. support must contribute to American security, economic resilience, or industrial capacity.
This Trump Doctrine is the realpolitik of the 21st century—a world where economic leverage is as vital as military power. The shift away from unconditional generosity is long overdue. By linking aid to access Ukraine’s untapped reserves of rare earth elements and its known deposits of critical minerals, Trump’s strategy ensures that U.S. commitments serve tangible national interests rather than vague promises of goodwill.
Ukraine is only the beginning. The old model—where taxpayer dollars flowed outward with little expectation of return—has run its course. The United States must negotiate from strength, secure advantages, and reinforce its global position.
Trump understands what the Washington elite refuses to admit: America must negotiate from strength—or risk being overextended, exhausted, and dangerously exposed to the rise of China.
Charlton Allen is an attorney, former chief executive officer, and chief judicial officer of the North Carolina Industrial Commission. He is the founder of the Madison Center for Law & Liberty, Inc., editor of The American Salient, and the host of the Modern Federalist podcast. X: @CharltonAllenNC
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