Hamas has been wrestling with what to do in the next stage of the deal, even as it claimed late Monday night that it won’t even fulfill the first stage of the deal.
The terrorist group is continuing to try to decide – internally – if it has the upper hand. It clearly tried to show that it was victorious in Gaza. It has been mocking Israel, mocking the IDF units that fought in Gaza, and mocking the claims of Israeli politicians of “total victory.”
Hamas sent a delegation to Tehran over the weekend to discuss with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei what to do next. Hamas is clearly considering different options. One is to destroy the deal during the first phase, which would likely lead to a new round of fighting and could see the Netzarim Corridor again split Gaza City from central Gaza.
Hamas openly said Israel has violated the deal, citing delays in returning displaced Palestinians from the south to the north, and when they do cross, they are in danger of bullets, as well as a delay in aid.
The next hostage release is due Saturday; Hamas has said it will not release hostages. During the short first phase of the deal, it has already acted in several ways that created small crises. For instance, it would wait until the last minute to transfer a list of names and even delayed it in the first week of the ceasefire.
It also created a crisis over releasing Arbel Yehoud, which led Israel to delay letting Gazans return to northern Gaza. At the time, this pressure on Hamas appeared to work, but Hamas also mistreated the hostages, parading them, letting people crowd around them, and using them as theater to humiliate them. The last three hostages released – Or Levy, Eli Sharabi, and Ohad Ben Ami – were emaciated. It is clear that Hamas knows this will lead to outrage within Israel.
Hamas claimed it wants Israel to “provide compensation for the entitlements of the past weeks retroactively” and reaffirmed its commitment to the deal.
What Hamas knows
The terrorist group may feel it has the upper hand on some days, and then not on other days. For instance, Hamas knows Gazans don’t want to see a return to war, and is also enjoying the spotlight of the hostage releases.
On the other hand, Hamas knows that it faces diminishing returns in this stage and future stages. It will release some bodies of hostages, and receive fewer returns in terms of Palestinian prisoners. The female hostages were Hamas’s biggest prize, and it has given them up. Hamas knows that as the number of living hostages it holds is reduced, it will have less leverage.
On the other hand, Hamas also knows that US President Donald Trump is meeting Jordanian King Abdullah II this week. It has also followed Trump’s Gaza plan closely. The president vowed that the US could take over Gaza, and the population could be relocated to make way for regional countries paying to reconstruct the destroyed enclave.
Iranian media noted on Monday that Hamas denounced Trump’s remarks that he wants to “buy and own” Gaza, that “the coastal territory is an inseparable part of Palestine.” Hamas political bureau member Izzat al-Rishq slammed Trump: “Gaza is not a piece of real estate to be bought and sold; it is an inseparable part of our occupied Palestinian land. Gaza belongs to its people, and they will not leave it – except to return to their towns and villages occupied in 1948.”
Hamas hopes now that its threats to the first phase of the deal will get it concessions. However, at the Super Bowl on Sunday, Trump doubled down on his Gaza plan, which had been softened in its previous iteration by his administration. He said that different countries could play a role in Gaza, and expressed further sympathy for the hostages, comparing their images to those of Holocaust survivors.
So, Hamas is upping its rhetoric. It expects to get some kind of concession, but it may have overplayed its hand. Israelis want the hostages back but are outraged at how Hamas has treated them. Hamas has already gotten away with October 7 and kidnapping 251 hostages, and thinks it can get away with sabotaging stage two of the deal to get more concessions, likely viewing the opposition to the plan by Arab states as an opening.
But Hamas shouldn’t gamble too much – the people of Gaza don’t want a return to fighting.
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