The Trump doctrine that is forming for the Middle East is currently focused primarily on Gaza. He has been outspoken since his inauguration on the need to get a deal done for the hostages and bring them home, and if Hamas doesn’t abide, then “hell is going to break out.”
In recent comments, he noted that what comes next is “Israel’s decision,” and he said that all the hostages should be returned by Saturday, February 15, at noon. He said that if this didn’t happen, then “after that, I would say, all hell is going to break out.”
He spoke about canceling the deal that was agreed upon in January, which is supposed to see 33 hostages released in around 40 days.
So far, there have been five rounds of hostages released, including five Thai hostages. Trump says that if Hamas doesn’t release the hostages, then “all bets are off.” His statement follows several other rounds of statements about Gaza.
When he was inaugurated in January, he had hinted that he felt Gaza was a demolition site and not inhabitable, and he also suggested he doubted the hostage deal would make it to its final stages.
The agreement was supposed to have a second and third phase, and Israel and Hamas were supposed to discuss these phases as phase one was underway. However, it seems that phase 2 discussions have not begun properly. Hamas has threatened to stop releasing hostages.
It’s worth recalling that the Trump doctrine of “hell to pay” has been in the cards since his election. He said that there would be “hell to pay” back in December.
He continued to be asked about his phrase in the lead-up to the inauguration in January. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, was able to push with new urgency for a deal, and a deal with Hamas began just before the inauguration.
Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, and Doron Steinbacher were the first to be released. Next came the four IDF observer soldiers, Karina Ariev, Liri Albag, Daniella Gilboa, and Naama Levy, on January 25. They had been held for 477 days in Gaza.
Then, five days later, Gadi Moses, Arbel Yehoud, and Agam Berger and 5 Thai citizens, Pongsak Thenna, Sathian Suwannakham, Watchara Sriaoun, Bannawat Seathao, and Surasak Lamnau were released at the end of January. Two days later, Ofer Kalderon, Keith Siegel, and Yarden Bibas were released.
Most recently, Ohad Ben Ami, Eli Sharabi, and Or Levy were released.
However, there have been many tensions between Israel and Hamas during this period. In early February, between the hostage releases in the fourth and fifth week, Trump said that “the US will take over the Gaza Strip and we will do a job with it too,” when he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump indicated that Israel would hand over Gaza to the US, but the US would not put boots on the ground, and instead, regional countries would pay for multi-decade reconstruction. Around 2 million Gazans would be moved elsewhere, and Trump said they would be built new communities.
Trump commits to buying and owning Gaza
Days later, on the way to the Super Bowl after the fifth hostage release, Trump said, “I’m committed to buying and owning Gaza. As far as us rebuilding it, we may give it to other states in the Middle East to build sections of it.”
Now, as Trump prepares to meet with King Abdullah of Jordan, he continues to talk about a deal with Jordan and Egypt.
He is raising pressure on them or other states to take in Gazans. “I’m talking about starting to build…and I think I could make a deal with Jordan. I think I could make a deal with Egypt.” Trump’s doctrine appears to be a mix of carrots and sticks in talks about who may take Gazans. He has hinted at stopping aid to Egypt and Jordan.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is expected to visit Israel soon, has also slammed Hamas. He has called it “a group that needs to be eradicated,” according to an article at Ynet. He also discussed Gaza and how it needs to be cleared of debris and the detritus of war. US Ambassador-designate to Israel Mike Huckabee has also slammed Hamas recently, asserting that it won’t continue to exist in Gaza.
The question now, as Trump continues to press for his plan for Gaza, is how the “hell to pay” doctrine can come to pass. Will Israel be expected to be the one bringing the “hell” to Hamas, and if so, how will that happen? Israel already fought for fifteen months in Gaza, and Israel appears to have no plan, vision, or strategy to remove Hamas from Gaza. US officials seem to speak more about Hamas being removed than Israeli officials do.
Many Israeli officials seem to accept Hamas running Gaza, and there was no attempt in fifteen months of war to remove it or replace it as a governing authority. This means that Trump may expect that Israel will be able to do something in Gaza that Israel doesn’t actually want to do.
At that point, the Trump doctrine will run against a different reality. In some ways, Trump’s statements were meant to stir things up and get new ideas for Gaza. However, if the countries reject new ideas and Israel isn’t able to deliver on Gaza, then it’s unclear how the doctrine moves forward.
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