Throughout the war with Hamas, Israel has often faced the problem of trying to claw back the initiative from various enemies. Hamas began the war on October 7, 2023, with an unprecedented massacre and hostage-taking. Since then, Israel has sought to fight and defeat Hamas; however, this has proven an uphill struggle. Israeli leaders have claimed at various times that Hamas is like ISIS, that Israel will achieve “total victory,” and that Hamas’s military and governance capabilities will be destroyed. However, Hamas continues to control Gaza, and it often seems to dictate terms to Israel.
The problem Israel now faces is what is sometimes known as the “tail wagging the dog.” This means that Israel’s important decisions and its initiative are being dictated by others in our current challenge in Gaza. How does the tail wag the dog? This week, Hamas claimed it would postpone the sixth handover of hostages, scheduled to take place on February 15. Later, Israeli leaders seemed to channel US President Donald Trump’s claims that all “hell” would break loose if Hamas didn’t hand over hostages.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “In light of Hamas’s announcement regarding its decision to violate the agreement and not release our hostages, last night I instructed the IDF to amass forces inside – and surrounding – the Gaza Strip. This action is being carried out at this hour and will be completed very soon.” He also said that the Israeli Security Cabinet had decided that “if Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end, the IDF will resume intense fighting until the final defeat of Hamas.”
Hamas seemed to climb down, and now it appears hostages will be released. However, the lack of certainty and the ability of Hamas to often seem to drive the discussion illustrates how Israel is lurching from one crisis to another. The challenge Israel has faced throughout this war is its inability to get back the initiative and also get back its deterrence. For instance, the Houthis in Yemen also threatened this week to attack Israel again if the ceasefire does not hold.
Why is Israel faced with so many challenges in this respect? Hamas is not that large an organization. It is estimated that while it may have lost some 10-20,000 of its fighters in the war, it has recruited many new ones. This means that Hamas is able to recruit. However, it has lost most of its rocket arsenal.
Problems in Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank
This week, the IDF twice had to conduct searches near the border due to concerns over an infiltration or security incident. One incident happened near Yad Mordechai, and then on Wednesday, another happened near Sufa. It’s possible these were incidents that were due to false alarms. It’s also possible Hamas is already beginning to probe Israel’s defenses. Back in June 2024, Hamas sought to infiltrate near Sufa and Holit under the cover of fog. The serious incident led to clashes with the IDF, scrambling a drone, and also the death of a soldier.
Hamas is continually boasting of having won in Gaza. However, Hamas is not the only problem. Hamas also is enflaming the West Bank. This week in Nur Shams camp, the IDF clashed with terrorists and found an illegally smuggled M-16 type rifle. This is one of many illegal weapons that have flowed to the northern West Bank.
The IDF is now engaged in a multi-week campaign to try to root out terrorists in places like Jenin, Tulkarm, Al-Fara camp and the hills around Tubas. This is a serious effort and requires patience and work. However, it is also an example of how Israel is continually responding to growing threats.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, it does not appear that the Lebanese army is keeping up its end of the ceasefire. Hezbollah continues to try to smuggle weapons and cash to Lebanon. Recent reports indicate it is using Beirut International Airport to recoup funding losses through smuggling. Israel has already postponed the ceasefire once to stay in southern Lebanon. Israel may do this again now until the end of February. However, it shows that the ceasefire regime dealing with Hamas and Hezbollah is prone to having to deal with possible crises constantly. This happens as Israel is also trying to get residents to return to northern Israel.
Another challenge that Israel faces is calls within the governing coalition to return to fighting. Israel’s leaders now believe that they have complete backing from the White House to do what they want in Gaza. The narrative here posits that the Biden administration prevented Israel from going all the way and completely defeating Hamas.
The Trump administration has sought to change the narrative, suggesting most Gazans could be re-settled outside of Gaza and suggesting Israel could hand over Gaza to the US. The US would then “cherish” Gaza and get others to rebuild it. This seems a long shot, but it has caused some in Israel to believe that Israel can now go in and finish the job against Hamas.
However, the challenge here is that Israeli leaders and policymakers have not sketched out what they mean when they discuss defeating Hamas or having a victory over the group. Fifteen months of fighting apparently did not lead to victory. What does victory and winning mean in Gaza? Can Israel really facilitate the re-settling of Gazans? Where would they go? How will they be pried loose from being under Hamas control? Even if Israel does send IDF divisions back into Gaza, will it be willing to remove Hamas from the central camps area where Hamas has never faced real opposition to two almost decades of control?
These are key questions, and Israel appears to continue to let various actors and events lead to Israel always reacting to events rather than seizing the initiative. To move past October 7, Israel will need to stop letting the tail wag the dog and will need to move forward with the policies that Israel wants, rather than reacting most of the time. This requires a strategic vision and long-term plan. Only that will end this constant crisis mode of lurching from one crisis to another on various fronts.
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