In recent days, many people who support Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression have found Trump’s words disappointing. As always with Trump, though, there’s more going on than seems obvious. He has a long-term strategy that can be achieved through short-term tactics that stop the bloodshed. I hope I can clarify what’s probably happening.
Preliminarily, here are several baseline considerations.
1. Trump wants to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine. Currently, he’s not seeking peace; his goal is to stop the carnage—that is, he needs a truce, which will provide a springboard to later occurring benefits. This is fundamental.
2. Trump has good reason to mistreat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. For three years, America has been helping Ukraine with arms, money, and political support. However, Ukraine has not reciprocated, especially regarding Trump and his policies:
At the UN, Ukraine has frequently voted against Israel, a U.S. ally, placing it alongside its worst enemy, Russia.
When Trump was running for office last year, Ukraine took a distinctly pro-Biden-Harris position. When Speaker Michael Johnson demanded Zelensky recall Ambassador Oksana Markarova, Zelensky ignored him, and she continues to hold the same position.
And what about the rampant Ukrainian corruption resulting in the squandering of American aid, which, even in wartime, Zelensky failed to curb, much to the displeasure of conservative Americans?
So, why should Trump like Zelensky?
Trump and Zelensky in the good old days (2019). YouTube screen grab.
3. Trump is a master negotiator and dealmaker. He even wrote a textbook on the subject. He is a sophisticated businessman and gambler who often has a trump card hidden up his sleeve. He never reveals his strategy, either before or during negotiations, and his strategy is usually unconventional.
4. When negotiating, cunning Trump always tries to charm the opponent, but he has an iron fist in a velvet glove. So don’t take everything Trump says literally. He’s friendly when he wants something.
5. At the early stage of negotiations, Trump sees no point in involving either Zelensky or European leaders. First, it is necessary to probe Putin’s position and mood, for Putin is the opponent here, to work out the best strategy. It’s counterproductive to bring in other players, especially those who can contribute only emotions but hardly anything constructive. This is especially true of Zelensky, who, like Putin, wants only uncompromising victory.
6. Trump has his domestic plate full. He is revolutionizing the entire American system so that European affairs are not at the top of the agenda. Nevertheless, before the election, Trump promised to stop the war, and he is a man of his word.
Those are all factors to consider.
Now, here is a brief historical excursion. On March 3, 1918, the Brest Peace was concluded to withdraw Russia from World War 1. The Bolsheviks gave up 26% of the population and 707,000 square miles, i.e., all of Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia, and Moldova. Lenin’s strategy was to survive, keep the army from disintegration, regroup, and then, when the time was ripe, take it all back. That’s how it worked out. The Soviet Union managed to take back every one of those regions.
Of course, the current situation is not a carbon copy of the events of 100 years ago. Times are different, the situation is different, and the countries are not the same. However, the general strategic idea is the same: “One step back, and when the time is right, two steps forward.”
It seems that Trump has chosen a similar strategy. The essence of it, in my opinion, is the following:
He intends to make a ceasefire and give Russia almost everything it has already managed to seize. This will allow Putin to look like a winner and “save face.”
For Ukraine, this will be painful, but it’s better to amputate than to bleed to death. And while it will not bring peace, it will stop the bloodshed and preserve the Ukrainian army. For how long will the truce last? Who can say? North and South Korea have been in a truce for more than 70 years, and South Korea is prosperous, while North Korea is in you-know-what condition.
The ceasefire will give everybody a break: Ukraine, Russia, America, and Europe. How will Ukraine and Western countries use it? By building up armaments.
Ukraine should develop its military industry and rebuild its army. European countries will be forced to splurge on military spending, maybe not by 5% of GDP, as Trump demands, but at least by 3.5%. America will accelerate rearmament and sharply increase military production. In a few years, Ukraine and its allies will become much stronger and will not be easy prey for any aggressor.
As for Russia, there will be an arms buildup there as well, although neither the quality of these weapons nor their quantity can be compared to combined Western ones. Russia will ask China for assistance, yet with not much success. China has plenty of its own headaches, so why meddle with Russia’s problems? It’s much more beneficial for China to be “friends” and trade partners with Western countries than with aggressive, backward Russia.
There is no doubt that Russia’s innate desire for military expansion will not disappear, but its chances of future success against Ukraine or other European countries will be negligible since it will be impossible to compare the military and economic resources of Russia to the collective West. As the war in Ukraine has shown, the Russian army is ineffective, and there is no chance for it to flourish in the future. This strategy can work effectively only if the sanctions imposed on Russia continue with increased control.
In the not-so-distant future, Russia will inevitably face fundamental changes. It has already lost its intellectual potential: Most of its talented people have emigrated, universities are in deplorable condition, the Russian Academy of Sciences is dead, and high-precision equipment in factories is obsolete. In the coming years, the standard of living in Russia will sharply decline, especially in the provinces. As a result, Russia will disintegrate and break into several smaller republics. These will be the entities without any imperial ambitions.
You can find more of Jacob Fraden’s writing here.
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