Israeli leaders spent February 25 making it clear that Israel now has southern Syria in the spotlight. It’s not clear if this spotlight will amount to putting it in the crosshairs of the air force or if it will lead to larger moves.
What is clear is that airstrikes and comments this week are being watched closely in the region, and this is leading to anger in Damascus.
When the new government of Syria took shape after the fall of Assad on December 8, there was a window of opportunity to improve ties between Syria and Israel. Some Israeli leaders took credit for toppling Assad.
His fall came after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham started a surprise offensive from Idlib against Aleppo in late November, days after the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire. The weakness of Hezbollah helped pave the way for the fall of the Assad regime.
Israel had carried out a campaign between the wars in southern Syria against Iranian entrenchment and weapons trafficking. This had gone on throughout the Syrian civil war, even after the regime returned to the Golan. The regime had indicated it might keep Iranian threats away from Israel’s border, up to 60km or so deep into Syria.
But the regime didn’t do this. Instead, it let Hezbollah open cells near the border and threaten Israel. As such, the regime was playing with fire. However, it was never clear in Jerusalem if it was preferable to weaken Assad too much. Some preferred working with Syrian rebels. Others saw them as Jihadists. Others want to work with the Druze and Kurds.
In the end, the regime appeared to have won in 2018. However, on December 8, 2024, it fell from power. Now, HTS was in Damascus, and Syrian rebels Israel was familiar with were in southern Syria. HTS had once been the Nusra front, and even though Israel had seen this group as terrorists since 2015, it was not seen as a major threat.
However, Israel’s foreign minister this week slammed HTS. “I hear talks about transition in Syria. This is ridiculous. The new government is a Jihadist Islamist terror group from Idlib, that took Damascus by force. We are all happy that Assad is out. But we must have realistic expectations.
The Islamists speak softly. Just check how Iran spoke in 1979. But everyone knows who Al-Sharaa is. Not only are they not inclusive. They are exacting vengeance on Alawites. They are harming the Kurds. We will not compromise the security on our border. Hamas and PIJ are acting in Syria to create another another front against Israel there,” Israel’s Foreign Minister said.
“A Stable Syria can only be a Federal Syria that includes different automomies and respects different ways of life,” he said. “Israel’s dramatic weakening of Hezbollah ultimately caused Assad to not be in power in Syria. There is an opportunity for positive change in Lebanon,” he argued as well on February 24.
Demilitarizing southern Syria
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said that southern Syria should be demilitarized. “We will not allow forces from the HTS [Hayat Tahrir al Sham] organization or the new Syrian army to enter the area south of Damascus,” he said on February 23.
On February 25, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz followed this up: “We will not allow southern Syria to become southern Lebanon – any attempt by the Syrian regime forces and the country’s terrorist organizations to establish themselves in the security zone in southern Syria – will be met with fire.”
He then noted in the evening that “the Air Force is now attacking strongly in southern Syria as part of the new policy we have defined to demilitarize southern Syria – and the message is clear: we will not allow southern Syria to become southern Lebanon. We will not endanger the security of our citizens. Any attempt by the Syrian regime forces and the country’s terrorist organizations to establish themselves in the security zone in southern Syria – will be met with fire.”
The IDF said that it struck military targets in southern Syria, including command centers and multiple sites containing weapons. “The presence of military forces and assets in the southern part of Syria pose a threat to the citizens of Israel. The IDF will continue to operate in order to remove any threat to the citizens of the State of Israel.”
This is now a major game-changer potentially. Syrians are angry, and supporters of Syria abroad are also angry at Israel. Those who have hopes for the new Syria are concerned this could destabilize southern Syria. Syria’s president was in Jordan on February 26, and the Kingdom condemned the Israeli strikes. Turkey has also condemned Israel’s recent comments on Syria. This has the potential to unite a number of countries to back the new Syria. As the new Syria is seeking reconstruction and a peaceful return to moving forward after years of war, the Israeli strikes will be seen as harmful.
There may be a window of opportunity for better ties with Syria, however it seems the new policy in Jerusalem may close that window.
It is not clear why HTS is viewed in such a hostile way when the same Israeli leadership has taken credit for toppling Assad. The Sharaa government has tried to appear moderate. Some do not trust it.
However, there’s a saying: “Trust but verify.” The airstrikes might make the government in Damascus more hostile, which could result in Turkey deploying assets in Syria.
This could lead to many ramifications that might not be welcome in Jerusalem. The week of February 23-26 has changed Israel’s position on Syria, and it is not clear where that strategy will end up.
Jesus Christ is King
