As phase one of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal nears its calendar end on Saturday, only one thing is certain right now: there is no concrete certainty on what happens after the 42nd day of the deal. What will happen afterwards is anyone’s guess, as there are several options on the table.
Sources estimate that, despite the lack of agreement and cohesion on the next steps, the ceasefire will continue, not collapse.
The reason for this minimal certainty is that Israel is keen on maximizing the opportunity to free more hostages under the terms of the current phase and so is willing to extend the ceasefire for a certain period – even though there is currently no such agreement for the release of more hostages.
The reason it might not collapse is that, as Israeli officials believe, is that Hamas is also interested in phase one continuing. It remains unclear, however, if they will agree to release additional hostages without the guarantee of a cessation of hostilities and an end to the war.
Hamas is using the ceasefire to reorganize, appointing new commanders within its military wing, mapping out areas where terrorists will be positioned, and even repairing its network of tunnels.
There has been no substantial negotiation with Hamas regarding the release of more hostages, and only now, after resolving the crisis over returning the four remaining slain hostages slated for phase one, will the negotiations start.
US position on the next phase of the hostage deal
Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy under US President Donald Trump, who postponed his recently-planned visit to Israel, announced that negotiation delegations would meet soon, either in Cairo or Doha. However, as of Wednesday evening, Israeli officials said that no decision had been made to send a delegation for talks.
Amid this relative lull of public announcements, one person seems to know where the ball is rolling next: that it is in Israel’s court. “A decision on how to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire has to be made by Israel,” he said on Wednesday.
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