Two weeks ago, in mid-February, there was talk that “hell will break loose” in Gaza if Hamas didn’t abide by the ceasefire and continue to release hostages.
At the time, it appeared Hamas was willing to walk away from the first phase of the ceasefire and not release hostages on time. In the end, Hamas backed down and hostages were released. Now, the first phase of the ceasefire is over, and Hamas expects that it will be extended.
One can tell that Hamas expects things to remain calm by how it is behaving. It has set up tables for Ramadan in areas of Gaza and seems to expect that calm will prevail.
There is also no sense of crises in Doha or Cairo, the two places where mediation is taking place. Israel has threatened to cut off humanitarian aid going into Gaza unless Hamas extends the ceasefire. However, the overall sense is that somehow a solution will be found.
The basic discussion surrounds whether the first phase of the ceasefire will be extended such that a few hostages are released each week, or if another framework will be found to release more hostages at the beginning of a new ceasefire and then others at the end.
Hamas doesn’t like the new proposals. It wants phase two of the original deal agreed upon in mid-January to be completed, which would see Israel leave the Philadelphi Corridor in southern Gaza and the end of the war.
Hamas wants this because it would basically be a return to October 6. Then Hamas will rebuild its terrorist infrastructure and attack again and take more hostages, get more prisoners released, and do this again and again.
On the other hand, Israeli politicians are at an impasse. While some have warned about “hell breaking loose” in February, the tough talk has now been reduced. In February, there was talk of Israel supporting US President Donald Trump’s plan to move people out of Gaza so it could be rebuilt.
However, Israeli leaders have not presented any plan about how this might happen. Instead, they take a “wait and see” approach, expecting the Trump administration to sort things out.
For instance, talks about the second phase of the deal were supposed to take place weeks ago, but Israel stalled and waited. Right-wing politicians have said they don’t want to go to phase two; they want phase one to continue. Hamas disagrees.
The Arab states in the region don’t seem to think a crisis will grow too much. They may also assume the Trump administration can save things.
The issue everyone faces is that the Trump administration may not have a magic wand to sort out all these problems. It is also dealing with the fallout from the meeting with Ukraine’s president and dealing with other domestic policy issues.
Key issues
The key issues involved now are whether Israel will threaten to do more than just cut off humanitarian aid going into Gaza. Hamas has stockpiled the aid that arrived during phase one of the ceasefire and thus has enough aid for part of Ramadan.
However, it will want to continue to have aid flowing as it seeks to begin rebuilding and show the population in Gaza that it has won and can secure their future.
This is all part of Hamas’s plan. Hamas expects the ceasefire to continue and thinks it has painted Israel into a corner in this respect.
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