President Donald Trump has suspended military aid for Kyiv following his contentious Oval Office meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. If not reversed, Trump’s decision will, at best, undermine his own efforts to achieve durable peace in Ukraine. At worst, a permanent end to U.S aid could eventually deliver the president a humiliation that dwarfs his predecessor’s Afghanistan withdrawal. Washington should urgently resume its assistance and engage with Kyiv to find a way to move forward. Trump will also need to be clear-eyed about Vladimir Putin’s ambitions and what it will take to check them.
During Friday’s Oval Office meeting, disagreement over whether Ukraine should accept a ceasefire absent security guarantees escalated into a war of words that ended with Zelenskyy booted from the White House without signing the minerals deal he came to finalize. “I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations,” Trump declared after the meeting. “I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE.”
The administration now says it is “pausing and reviewing” U.S. military aid until Kyiv demonstrates its commitment to peace talks. The suspension includes all American equipment and munitions currently in the delivery pipeline or on order for Ukraine. It remains unclear, at this writing, whether this decision affects other forms of U.S. assistance, such as intelligence-sharing and training.
Ukraine desires peace more than anyone. It simply needs that peace to be durable. The hard truth is that these negotiations are unlikely to resolve the fundamental question at stake in this war: whether Ukraine will be an independent country or a Russian vassal. Absent solid security guarantees, the risk of a follow-on war will remain high. European countries have discussed deploying a “reassurance force” in Ukraine but insist it will require a U.S. “backstop.” While the administration has ruled out putting American boots on the ground, Trump has left the door open to U.S. support of some kind. Kyiv and its European allies are pressing for a firm commitment.
Putin’s goal isn’t simply to grab some Ukrainian territory. Rather, as he affirmed on Thursday, the Russian leader seeks a “fundamental solution to the Ukraine crisis” — code for making Ukraine a vassal state — and a revision of the broader “European and global security system.” Moscow’s demands include not only barring Ukraine from joining NATO or hosting foreign troops but also strict limits on its military. In effect, Ukraine would be left at Russia’s mercy. Putin likely also hopes to widen the negotiations to include a pullback of NATO forces from Eastern Europe.
Trump insists Putin will honor any peace deal Trump negotiates. The Kremlin, too, demands a permanent resolution to the conflict — but with the catch that its maximalist terms must be met. Unless left with no other choice, no Ukrainian leader will submit to Russian authoritarian rule, not least because doing so would be political suicide.
Some may mistakenly think pressuring Kyiv to accept Russian terms offers the surest path to peace. Although Trump has said he expects concessions by both sides, he’s also admitted he doesn’t “care so much” about the specific terms so long as the killing stops. He argues Russia holds all the “cards” on the battlefield, suggesting Ukraine would have little choice but to go along if left without U.S. aid.
That assessment undervalues Ukraine’s resilience and determination. Without American aid, Ukraine’s military prospects, particularly its ability to defend its skies, certainly would suffer. Ukraine would probably lose land and soldiers at a faster pace and see more infrastructure destroyed. Still, thanks to European support, previously delivered U.S. assistance, and domestic weapons production, including Ukrainian-made drones that currently account for most Russian losses, Ukraine could likely fight on throughout 2025. Shortages would mount as time passes, though Russia itself will likely struggle to sustain offensive operations beyond 2025.
While a U.S. aid cutoff might not force Ukrainian capitulation, it would certainly make Putin even less willing to compromise and would diminish Trump’s ability to broker a deal. Fighting could drag on until it peters out into a semi-frozen conflict or an inconclusive ceasefire, setting the stage for another war.
And what if ending aid did eventually enable Russia to break Ukraine’s back? That’d spell greater disaster. It would embolden Moscow and its allies in Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang, heightening threats to U.S. interests globally even as America’s military already finds itself stretched thin. Trump would rightly be blamed by history, not to mention many American voters. Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan stained his foreign-policy legacy and caused an irrecoverable loss in voter confidence, something that might concern Vice President Vance as well.
While Trump may not be concerned with “advantage” over Moscow, securing a durable peace will, in fact, require leverage. That means both continuing military assistance and tightening sanctions on Russia. If Putin understands that more fighting won’t gain him anything and Russia’s economy cannot sustain the war, he might be more willing to compromise. Meanwhile, Washington should work with allies to develop plans to support European-led postwar military aid and security guarantees for Ukraine.
Washington and Kyiv first need to find a way to bury the hatchet. As Trump has demonstrated just within the past couple weeks — by calling Zelenskyy a “dictator” then inviting him to the White House days later — he clearly can let bygones be bygones when necessary.
Signing the minerals deal, the reason for Zelenskyy’s visit in the first place, could help get things back on track. The Ukrainian leader has reaffirmed his commitment to peace and made clear he’s ready to move on. Trump should be, too.
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