In July 2023, former IDF intelligence analysis chief Yossi Kuperwasser called to invade Gaza and said Hamas was being given far too much space to threaten Israel.
Nearly the entire defense establishment believed that Hamas was deterred, and many viewed Kuperwasser as an alarmist, a warmonger, or as detached from the far more limited practical security options under consideration.
It turns out that Kuperwasser was one of the only officials who saw Gaza and Hamas clear through the fog, with all of the military probes essentially acknowledging that he was right (though they did not mention him by name). In recent weeks, he took over as head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).
Given that he got so many things right on issues that many other smart intelligence officers wildly missed, how would he assess the current challenges relating to Gaza and Iran?
Regarding Gaza, he told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday that his starting point would be: “We want to get the hostages back without paying too large a price.
“It is hard to deal with the challenges, but we can use our achievements and assets, given that we have weakened Hamas, to try to obtain the new reality we want,” he argued, saying that Israel has five new advantages.
“It is hard to deal with the challenges, but we can use our achievements and assets, given that we have weakened Hamas, to try to obtain the new reality we want.”
Israel has five new advantages, he said.
“We have many cards to play and they only have the hostages. Reality has changed. There were so many parties in the Middle East who tried to help Hamas to demand a large price and to stay in control of Gaza,” he said.
“Now, most parties are not actively standing up for Hamas. Not Iran, not Hezbollah, not Iraq, not the Palestinians in the West Bank, and not Israeli-Arabs,” he said.
Kuperwasser said that even if the Houthis were still threatening to fire rockets on Israel or to disrupt maritime trade, they are not a significant factor.
He also said the reality in the US changed dramatically.
President Donald Trump “is supporting all Israeli efforts, and he is referring to Hamas in a hostile manner. He said decisively: Hamas cannot stay in Gaza.”
Kuperwasser further noted that the Trump plan would even mean all the Palestinians living in Gaza would leave to facilitate the enclave’s rebuilding.
He stated that there is “the card of humanitarian aid; Israel can use this. It will take time until it is effective, but it is a serious bargaining chip to use if we have patience.
“There is the card about the future – there will be no reconstruction or funding of reconstruction unless we allow it.”
He described how Israel “can use more military force. There is a new IDF chief who will use it more massively as compared to [former defense minister Yoav] Gallant and [former IDF chief Herzi] Halevi. They can carry out a wider military operation against Hamas and be ready to hit it in a harsher manner,” such as by invading all of Gaza at once, instead of the separate rounds of invasions spread out over six to 10 months, which Israel carried out this past year.
Pressed that the remaining Hamas fighters could flee and hide within the 2.3 million Palestinians who would be evacuated to the al-Mawasi humanitarian zone on the coast in the case of a renewed full Gaza IDF invasion, Kuperwasser assured the IDF would overcome this.
“During the war, we have also reached them [Hamas terrorists] in al-Mawasi, in schools, and in UN facilities, where they had been hiding. We attacked many of the schools they were hiding in. Hopefully, we will have strong intelligence to get Hamas fighters and will harm fewer innocent persons” in the vicinity, he said.
He added, “There will be a significant impact on the Gaza area infrastructure,” something that always worries Hamas.
Asked about how long such a new Gaza invasion would need to be and how long the IDF would need to remain in Gaza as opposed to past operations during the war in which the military invaded an area, achieved operational control, and then withdrew, he responded: “However long is needed.”
Attendance numbers in reservist duty
Questioned about estimates that attendance by reservists to call-ups had fallen from 150% at the start of the war to as low as 50% for some units now or in the event of a renewed invasion, he said, “I hope it will not be like this. Israeli society understands the situation and is realistic about the idea that you cannot leave Hamas in place in Gaza.”
If Israel did leave Hamas in power, “this would send us back to October 6. It would be a sort of a win for Hamas regarding October 7. They freed thousands of Palestinian security prisoners… and are rehabilitating to become even stronger across the Palestinian community – we cannot leave them in control” of Gaza, he said.
REGARDING HAMAS’S backer, Iran, Kuperwasser said, “We need to eliminate their pathway to developing a nuclear weapon, and not merely to prevent them from the final act of getting one. As long as they have the potential capability to develop one, it will be continuously hard to stop them. We need a reality where they cannot make one at all.
“Right now, they are very close to obtaining one. They have lots of 60% enriched uranium and a large amount of 20% enriched uranium, which is also very dangerous,” and an even larger volume of lower enriched uranium, he said.“This is a reality we cannot continue to live with.”
According to Kuperwasser, “If there is economic pressure, diplomatic isolation, and a viable military threat from the US, then talking with Iran could be great as it is always better to resolve things without using force.
“But we need to be ready [for the possibility] that it may not work out. We see the tone of [Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei – he is against a deal despite the current pressure. Also, despite the Israeli attack on October 26 on Iran, he is not waiving a white flag.”
Pressed about when Israel would need to attack if diplomacy does not succeed, on one hand, he said that Jerusalem would “not need to attack tomorrow,” but on the other hand, he thought that waiting until the October deadline, when the economic sanctions global snapback against Iran expires, would be waiting too long.
“It is not clear if there will be talks. It is clear how much more dangerous Iran is now and that we need to act soon,” he said.
Further, he noted that large aspects of Iran’s anti aircraft defense systems – and some aspects of Iran’s ballistic missile development – were harmed by the attack on October 26, and that Tehran is also weaker because it currently cannot “use Hezbollah to hit hard, the Assad regime fell, and economically Iran is weak.
“So it is appropriate to ramp up all of the pressures. They must have no potential ability to make a nuclear weapon, and the inspections must be truly effective, not like under the JCPOA” 2015 Iran nuclear deal, according to Kuperwasser.
Regarding how long the IDF can remain in its Syria buffer zone, Kuperwasser said, “We cannot set a specific deadline, time must be determined by a set of factors. Not six months or one year. We follow developments.
“There is a new security doctrine. We are trying to prevent the presence of dangerous terrorists on our borders. We are also doing this in Lebanon, though I am not sure for how long. We are trying to understand who Ahmed al-Sharaa is and where he is taking Syria,” he said.
He stated that, “Since 2014, he has been pragmatic compared to the more radical Islamists. He has emphasized Syrian nationalism over pan-Islamism…But he still came from al-Qaeda…We need to be suspicious. Turkey is also taking action. The situation in Syria is very unstable.”
“Look at the episodes in recent days. There are tensions with the Kurds in the North. The Druze are shuddering in fear about defending themselves,” he said, adding that Israel must help the Syrian Druze.
Regarding his new role at JISS, he stated, “We need to preserve this realist think tank and even grow it to be larger so it can impact the debates in Israel more significantly.
“There is too much attention on the extreme views on both sides. We need to stick to real and serious issues and perspectives,” he stated.
Further, he said, “The institute will grow to have a more significant impact both on the media, and also the decision-makers in Israel and around the world.”
Kuperwasser said that influencing global debates would be done both remotely and with additional travel.
Besides his top-level IDF post, Kuperwasser was previously the director-general of the Strategic Affairs Ministry, most recently served as a senior project manager at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, and has had top positions in a variety of think tanks.
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