The United States’ fertility rate has fallen to around 1.78, which, combined with the general downward trajectory, is a cause for concern. To replace the population, a country needs to maintain a rate around 2.1.
When I was a young lieutenant arriving in Germany in 1995, I was surprised by three observations: how good beer can be, how secular European society had become, and the fact that Europeans weren’t having kids.
The second two trends were closely tied together. As Europe moved into its post-Christian phase, the number of babies dropped precipitously. The fertility rate in Germany in 1995 was an anemic 1.25, which was reflective of Europe in general. We visited beautiful churches across the continent that had become tourist attractions instead of places of worship.
Even back then, it was obvious Europe would run into trouble, since their social welfare pyramid schemes relied on the very thing they weren’t producing: young people. Instead of producing their own future generations, they welcomed them in from places like Pakistan, Syria, and Turkey, setting up a clash of cultures that will not end well. An aggressive Islamic culture with high birthrates will sweep away the postmodern secular European culture that can’t be bothered to awaken from its slumber to defend its people or have children of their own.
I attempted to write a master’s thesis at the Naval Postgraduate School in 2006 on England’s dark future due to the incompatibility between the traditional English culture and the muscular Islamic culture of their newcomers. The thesis advisers, whose instinct was to blame all problems on the Europeans, wouldn’t accept the premise, leading to a worthless thesis and a “checked box” diploma.
Less than twenty years later, in 2024, England recorded well over 50,000 knife attacks and had become the land of the unimaginable rape gang horror, even as we are seeing vehicles turned into mass casualty weapons on a routine basis on the European continent as previously unique cultures are shredded. Europe is going through an existential crisis to which their Eloi leaders have no answer other than to punish those who speak out against the Morlocks. Within this environment, the Russia-Ukraine war serves as a welcome distraction to which to point their population’s eyes in the same way that “Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia” in 1984. I’m guessing more than a few wealthy Europeans will see a $5 million gold card as a real bargain to escape.
Speaking of the Russia-Ukraine war, it’s interesting to view it through the lens of demographics. Russia’s fertility rate sits around 1.41, meaning there aren’t too many bouncy baby Ivans these days. Ukraine was actually hovering around a catastrophic 1.0 before recovering slightly. It still wins the ribbon as the worst of the worst in Europe in terms of fertility rates, which it pairs with the second-highest mortality rate in the world. It was an absolute demographic disaster even before the war.
Neither of the demographic basket cases can afford to lose a generation of young men, a fact that is not lost on a Trump administration championing peace.
All this is happening against the backdrop of collapsing birth rates worldwide. The global fertility rate sits just above the population replacement level. For comparison’s sake, that same rate was close to five when I Love Lucy debuted. Today’s global rate is being held aloft by Africa, with the current top four countries being those stalwarts of stability Niger, Chad, the DRC, and Somalia. In fact, the only country in the top thirty for fertility rates not in Africa is Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, some of America’s strongest Asian allies are in a complete death spiral, to include Japan (1.3) and South Korea, which has dropped below one. These geriatric states may as well hang “going out of business” signs from the windows.
Low fertility rates change a country remarkably fast since each generation compounds on top of the one before. It’s the same principle at work in compounding interest, which is why the leading boy’s name in Berlin and across major regions of England is now Mohammed. The future belongs to those having kids, and not to those who get so excited, they think of ACDC’s “Thunderstruck” when dreaming about abortion, as Josh Shapiro apparently did. And he’s supposed to be the sane Democrat.
five percent of women have five or more children. As a general rule, these are the kind of women who see children as a great blessing and not the kind who send out virtue-signaling pictures of the Ukrainian flag across Facebook or shill for Planned Parenthood.
This makes it all the more important that the Left controls the schools to indoctrinate children away from any values they might receive from their parents. Expect to see historic levels of wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Randi Weingarten Democrats at the prospect of shuttering the ironically named Department of Education.
I expect to see a fertility rate bounce under the Trump Administration as it restores pride and a sense of hope to Americans, even as the Despairocrats try to torpedo these efforts. While pro-family and pro-freedom policies help, macro trends are the most important, which is why low fertility rates have responded so poorly to government attempts across the globe to reverse trends they know are unsustainable. No tools can reverse the alarming macro trends brought on by dependency.
The cure is national pride, faith, and hope paired with an unshackled economy, which also caused a notable spike under President Reagan. But the damage caused by the Obama Democrats won’t be erased in one term. Two terms of President Vance should finish the project.
Note: Fletch also writes fiction. You can check out his novels on Amazon.
Image: Public Domain
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