On March 1, the first phase of the hostage and ceasefire deal ended between Hamas and Israel. Usually when a ceasefire deal ends, the two sides should return to fighting. This is especially true if one side gets nothing in return. However, more than a week and a half later, Hamas is receiving a ceasefire and Israel has received no hostages in return. During the first phase of the ceasefire deal 33 hostages were released in 42 days. It used to be that around three hostages were freed every Saturday. No hostages were freed on March 8.
The question is how Hamas outmaneuvered Israel to get a ceasefire extended with nothing in return. A larger question is how it happened to coincide with Ramadan. It appears that Hamas was also able to outplay Israel last year during Ramadan 2024 which took place in March.
During that period Israel also reduced the intensity of operations in Gaza and Hamas was able to recuperate. Hamas appears to be able to secure de facto ceasefires for Ramadan each year and not have to ever do anything in return. This is in contrast to how Hamas treats Israel.
On Simchat Torah 2023, Hamas attacked Israel and murdered more than 1,000 people and took 250 hostages.
Today, Hamas is sitting in Gaza as if it won the war. It relaxes and its men walk around freely. Large number of terrorists have been released in January and February to secure the deal. There are no repercussions for Hamas. During the 2024 de facto Ramadan ceasefire, the IDF was still operating in parts of Gaza, such as the Netzarim Corridor and there were airstrikes. Today there are no airstrikes and no tanks in Netzarim. The only place the IDF continues to hold in Gaza is the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border.
Hamas says it wants phase two of the ceasefire deal. Israel has said it won’t enter into phase 2, under which the war ends, Israel leaves Rafah and Hamas releases all the hostages. Israel has been adamant that it won’t do this. Hamas called Israel’s bluff on March 1 and Israel didn’t decide to return to war. There may be some reasons for this. The IDF is in transition from the former chief of staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi to the new Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir who took on the reins of the military on March 5.
On the other hand there appears to have been a belief that Hamas would be flexible and agree to Israel’s terms. When Hamas didn’t agree after March 1 there was talk of what might happen next. Some reports claimed Israel would return to fighting in “days” or a week. However, Hamas again called this bluff and simply waited. Hamas thinks time is on its side. Another aspect of the ceasefire that continued were reports that Trump envoy Steve Witkoff would come and hammer out a deal as he did in mid-January during the lead-up to the first deal.
US involvement
However, Witkoff has many things on his plate. Reports indicated that in the absence of phase 2, Witkoff favored a proposal where half the remaining hostages in Gaza would be released on the first day of a new deal, and half at the end of the deal, when the war would perhaps end, or at least Ramadan and Passover would be over. However, Hamas apparently felt it could negotiate for better. Thus, after a few days reports of another deal emerged. Maybe Hamas would release 10 living hostages for a 60-day ceasefire. Hamas played for time and didn’t seem to care for that deal either.
Now, reports indicate that Hamas has been in direct contact with the Trump administration. Adam Boehler, the US special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, did rounds of interviews on Sunday discussing the initiative to discuss a deal with Hamas. The US wants the hostages released, and Trump has met with the hostages. Trump wants something to happen. He is willing to do what it takes to get the hostages, including the American hostages, out of Gaza.
In some circles in Israel, there has been concern about the direct talks with Hamas. Israel doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to do a deal. The US appears to be in more of a hurry to get hostages out of Gaza. Hamas understands the interplay here and assumes it can sit for Ramadan and that nothing will happen.
Israel has said it has cut off aid to Gaza and also now cut off electricity. These decisions seem more performative than effective. Hamas has electricity in Gaza. Hamas has stockpiled aid from the first phase of the ceasefire. Therefore, Hamas continues to relax. Hamas reads the Israeli reports about Israel incrementally increasing pressure and Israel considering other operations in Gaza. Hamas can read, it thinks nothing is going to happen. It also seems to think it can play the US off against itself by stalling and carrying out various tracks of discussions via Doha and Cairo.
The overall story here is simple. It’s in Hamas’s interests to have a ceasefire and recuperate and rebuild itself. So long as Israel and the US are willing to talk endlessly with Hamas, just as happened throughout 2024 and resulted in no deal, Hamas and its allies in Doha and Cairo will continue to outplay Israel and the US. This is the story of how Hamas received a Ramadan ceasefire and so far has not had to do anything in return.
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