The D Brief: Ukraine’s intel quandary; Pentagon’s civilian firings; Speedier-software policy; Russia’s military horses; And a bit more.
As Russia carts out horses to continue its 21st-century Ukraine invasion, Sweden’s Expressen newspaper is reporting that U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the American military to cease military exercises with allies in Europe beginning in 2026. Asked about the report, a NATO spokesman responded that the alliance continues to “plan and execute exercises” with all 32 member states.
Bigger picture: Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said in February that U.S. officials are reviewing the costs of shifting troops and equipment away from the continent and to the Pacific region in accordance with what some wonks have called a China-focused, “New Asia First” foreign policy during Trump’s second term.
Trump is also reportedly considering “withdrawing some 35,000 active personnel out of Germany” and redeploying them to Hungary, UK’s Telegraph reported Friday. Reminder: “During his first term, Mr Trump ordered the withdrawal of almost 12,000 troops from Germany, where the US had several major military facilities including Ramstein Air Base, the headquarters for US European Command,” the Telegraph writes. That withdrawal, however, was stopped by dissent in Congress and the election of Joe Biden in 2020. To read more at a nonpaywalled link, Yahoo has this.
For reference, here’s where U.S. troops are stationed in Europe, from the Council on Foreign Relations.
About Russia’s horses: “The hoofed mammals carry supplies and soldiers to avoid the attention of drones, which can easily spot and strike armored and other vehicles moving near the front lines,” the Journal reports. And it’s not just horses; donkeys are now a part of the Russian invasion.
“It’s better if a donkey gets killed than two men in a car carrying the things necessary for battle and sustenance,” a Russian general told a pro-Kremlin media outlet just last month.
Academic reax: “I’m not sure the resuscitation of old technology, nets, shotguns, horses, is out of choice,” said Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “They are desperate attempts to cope with unmanned aerial vehicles.” Read on, here.
Russian resourcefulness doesn’t end there: Some of Moscow’s special forces reportedly walked nine miles inside a recently-abandoned gas pipeline before attacking Ukrainian forces near the town of Sudzha in occupied Kursk, Russia, the Associated Press reports. The town “houses major gas transfer and measuring stations along the pipeline, which was once a major outlet for Russian natural gas exports through Ukrainian territory.”
Russia is conducting a “major encirclement operation” of Ukrainian forces in Kursk, Reuters reports. The advance is posing a dilemma for Kyiv, and “just as the spring thaw turns roads to mud tracks: should it withdraw from Kursk, and if so, can it do so without a disorderly rush to the border under intense Russian fire?”
North Korean troops reportedly helped Russia in these recent advances, too, analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War wrote Sunday evening. “Ukrainian sources told the Ukrainian outlet Suspilne on March 9 that up to two battalions of North Korean forces operating near Sudzha appear to be better trained and ‘acting more coherently’” than prior North Korean efforts alongside Russian forces.
Worth noting: These Russian advances are happening after Trump ordered a halt to intelligence sharing with Ukraine, ISW points out. However, they caution, “A direct link between the suspension of US intelligence sharing and the start of the collapse of Ukraine’s salient in Kursk Oblast is unclear, although Kremlin officials have recently announced their intention to take advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to ‘inflict maximum damage’ to Ukrainian forces’on the ground’ during the limited time frame before the possible future resumption of US intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine.” More details, here.
New: On Trump’s orders, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency “temporarily suspended access” to commercial satellite imagery for Ukraine, citing “the administration’s directive,” the Washington Post reported Friday. “U.S. partners and allies use the system to access the imagery through its orbital imaging services known as Global Enhanced GEOINT Delivery,” WaPo’s Alex Horton and Siobhán O’Grady write. “U.S. officials said the suspension affected multiple companies that deliver imagery through the program,” including Maxar.
Why it matters: “Artillery and drone units study the images to assess quality targets and review the damage to refine the attacks. A constant refresh of satellite imagery helps commanders and soldiers keep tabs on where enemy positions and depots are, making it easier to find vulnerabilities and troop movements. And they help logistics soldiers plan vehicle routes, with alternative corridors laid out if pathways are mined or destroyed.”
Notable: “The suspension was immediately felt by soldiers in the Ukrainian military, some of whom described the decision as treachery, not politics,” Horton and O’Grady write. Read on, here.
Developing: European nations are scrambling to find backups for broadband satellite internet if Elon Musk pulls the plug on Starlink, the Financial Times reports. At least four satellite operators are reportedly in talks with European officials over the matter.
By the way: “Shares in Franco-British satellite operator Eutelsat (ETL.PA) soared as much as 650% last week due to speculation the company could replace Starlink in providing internet access to Ukraine,” Reuters reported Monday.
Rubio vs. Sikorski: The development prompted an ugly back-and-forth on social media this weekend between Trump’s top diplomat Marco Rubio and his Polish counterpart, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
Poland is footing Ukraine’s bill for using Starlink among its frontline troops. Elon Musk on Sunday wrote online that he believes Ukraine’s “entire front line would collapse if I turned it [Starlink] off.” That’s what riled up Sikorski, who responded, “Starlinks for Ukraine are paid for by the Polish Digitization Ministry at the cost of about $50 million per year. The ethics of threatening the victim of aggression apart, if SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider we will be forced to look for other suppliers.” Rubio responded angrily, writing, “no one has made any threats about cutting Ukraine off from Starlink.”
Rubio also demanded Sikorski “say thank you because without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russians would be on the border with Poland right now.”
Musk even chimed in to reply to Sikorski, writing, “Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called for decorum in remarks Monday, writing, “True leadership means respect for partners and allies. Even for the smaller and weaker ones. Never arrogance. Dear friends, think about it.”
Speaking of Musk: “Chinese investors are using opaque structures known as special-purpose vehicles to invest in Elon Musk’s companies,” the Financial Times reported over the weekend. The technique is useful because Chinese investors can “conceal their identities to avoid the ire of US authorities and companies wary of Chinese capital.” More behind the paywall, here.
Additional reading: “Zelensky Is Set to Meet With Saudi Crown Prince Before U.S.-Ukraine Talks,” the New York Times reports; Reuters has similar coverage.
Welcome to this Monday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston and Eric Katz. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. It’s Harriet Tubman Day, so if you’re not already familiar with the U.S. Army mission she led that freed at least 730 enslaved people from South Carolina rice plantations back in 1863, check out historian Edda Fields-Black’s detailed 2024 retelling entitled, “Combee.”
Around the Pentagon
Mass firings began at the Defense Department last week, as multiple organizations received direction to put targeted probationary employees on administrative leave. Defense officials have announced plans to fire some 5,400 of the department’s 55,000 total probationary employees. An undisclosed number of them began receiving notification of their new status on Monday. They are expected to be officially terminated 14 to 21 days later, according to the information provided. Defense One’s Meghann Myers has more, here.
This wave of firings will be followed by a hiring freeze and, eventually, a 5- to 8-percent cut of all civilian workers, Hegseth has said.
“5 bullet points” email is now a weekly task for Pentagon civilians, the SecDef decreed on Friday, adding to guidance he issued last week. Each of the department’s roughly 760,000 civilian employees must send a list of their previous week’s achievements by Tuesday to the personnel and readiness directorate and copy their immediate supervisors.
“Submissions must exclude classified or sensitive information and will be incorporated into weekly situation reports by supervisors,” the secretary wrote. “Non-compliance may lead to further review.” Defense One’s Myers has more.
Even so, it’s a terrible risky policy, multiple intelligence officials told the Washington Post anonymously. “Adversaries are salivating over the thought of access to whatever ecosystem that DOGE is using in sifting through these bullets,” said one U.S. official in touch with Cyber Command personnel. Read on, here.
The Air Force is so worried that it sent its own follow-up guidance:
- “Remove your contact info/signature block from the email. Individuals can be tracked via email if necessary.
- “BCC your supervisor to meet the requirement to Courtesy Copy your supervisor
- “If you cannot provide accomplishments in an unclassified manner, send your 5 bullet points to your supervisor using the appropriate network.
- “In your reply on NIPR, state that your bullet points are classified and Bcc your supervisor, along with the date and time of your submission.”
DOD software buyers must default to rapid-acquisition processes, SecDef ordered in a May 6 memo. The move is a “big deal,” one expert told Defense One, because it will push the Defense Department to stop spending considerable money and time trying to build its own software and instead go to the marketplace for products that might already exist. Patrick Tucker has more, here.
Related reading:
Trump 2.0
CODEL to Gitmo. House Armed Services Committee members visited the immigrant detention center at Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, on Friday.
“This is immoral theater on the taxpayers’ dime…Already, the project has cost $16 million—but only has capacity to hold 225 immigrants—and dozens of tents costing millions of dollars aren’t being used because they don’t meet [the Department of Homeland Security’s] standards,” said Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-California. “Thousands of military personnel are guarding a current immigrant population of 41, with only a little over half being categorized as a high threat,” she said.
“It’s clear to me there is no operational reason for using Guantanamo Bay for this purpose, but rather, it was done because President Trump liked the optics and its history as a site of horrific human rights abuses,” Jacobs said. For example, “The facility was initially run like a military prison, with some immigrants being held in solitary confinement for 23 hours a day, despite that being against DHS protocol,” said Jacobs. While conditions have improved, and these immigrants now have access to four hours of communal time,” she called for more effort “to respect the immigrants’ rights and to delineate the division of labor between [military] and DHS personnel.”
Unlike Jacobs, trip organizer HASC Chairman Mike Rogers of Alabama was not terribly interested in costs or capacity. “Yesterday, I led a Congressional Delegation to Guantanamo Bay to see firsthand the incredible work being done by our servicemembers to keep our nation safe,” he said in his own statement Saturday. “During our visit, we met with servicemembers and law enforcement officials who have played a crucial role in facilitating the removal of some of the worst criminals,” he claimed. “Border security is national security and I’m proud of the role the Department of Defense has played in protecting our nation and ending the invasion at our southern border,” said Rogers.
Additional reading:
Etc.
Space plane returns after 434 days in orbit. This seventh (acknowledged) flight for a Boeing X-37B was said to demonstrate “the ability to change orbits by using atmospheric drag to slow down, saving fuel,” AP reported Friday.
Jesus Christ is King
