South Sudan Is On The Verge Of Another Civil War

The main parties involved in the latest clashes are the South Sudanese national military, under the government of President Salva Kiir, and an opposition force known as the White Army, which is believed to be allied with Vice President Riek Machar.

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Clashes are frequently characterized by interethnic violence, particularly between Mr. Kiir’s Dinka and Mr. Machar’s Nuer ethnic groups. Recurring violence has precipitated large-scale displacement, plunged the country into economic free-fall and sharply raised the price of food and fuel.

Mr. Machar’s political coalition has accused the government of targeting his allies in February, including by launching a large-scale operation against his supporters in Upper Nile State. At least 22 political and military leaders allied with Mr. Machar have been arrested, with the whereabouts of some of them still unknown, Human Rights Watch has said.

In early March, the government accused the White Army of attacking and capturing a military garrison in the northern town of Nasir along the border with Ethiopia. The authorities in Juba responded by arresting several of Mr. Machar’s allies, including the deputy chief of the army, Gen. Gabriel Duop Lam, and the petroleum minister, Puot Kang Chol.

The U.N. helicopter in Upper Nile came under fire on March 7, despite assurances of safe passage, according to the chief of the U.N. South Sudan mission, Nicholas Haysom. In addition to a member of the helicopter crew, the attack left several military officers dead, including a general, the United Nations said.

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“South Sudan is one major escalation away from slipping into a new civil war,” said Alan Boswell, the Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group. “Should the government collapse or large-scale ethnic violence break out, the country could fragment.”

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Uganda said last week that its special forces had deployed to Juba to “secure” the South Sudanese capital. The Ugandan military chief said in a social media post that his nation recognized Mr. Kiir as the country’s only president.

“Any move against him is a declaration of war against Uganda,” he said, adding, “All those who commit that crime will learn what it means.”

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Uganda’s longtime president, Yoweri Museveni, has deployed troops to South Sudan several times in the past to prop up Mr. Kiir’s government. Yusuf Serunkuma, a researcher and scholar at Makerere University in Uganda, said that reports of a decline in Mr. Kiir’s health meant he needed Mr. Museveni’s backing even more.