In a recent interview, President Trump’s peace envoy, Steve Witkoff, warned that the ongoing conflict in Gaza poses a serious risk to regional stability, with Egypt and Jordan particularly vulnerable. Speaking to Tucker Carlson, Witkoff underscored the fragility of both regimes, stating,
It’s a huge factor. King Abdullah of Jordan has managed instability well, but he’s also been lucky. Egypt is the real flashpoint. The progress from the Ayoun election — especially with Nasrallah and Sinwar eliminated — could be undone if Egypt collapses. Syria was a major lesson for the region. Assad’s fall was unexpected, proving that no regime is truly safe. Egypt’s situation is dire — youth unemployment is at 45%, the country is broke, and it desperately needs help. If Egypt unravels, it could set us back significantly.
Witkoff’s remarks challenge prevailing assumptions in Washington, where Abdullah’s monarchy is often considered stable. However, he points to the precedent set by Syria, where President Bashar Assad, once seen as entrenched, fell unexpectedly. His downfall shattered the notion that regimes with longstanding rule are invulnerable, particularly in a region where economic hardship and political repression fuel discontent.
The lesson from Syria is clear: Even seemingly entrenched leaders can be swiftly removed when conditions deteriorate. Assad’s collapse, after surviving a thirteen-year uprising, happened within days, leading to the rise of an Islamist government under Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who was at the time designated as a terrorist by the U.S. Department of State.
This history underscores the need for the U.S. and its allies, including Israel, to prepare for the possibility of regime change in Jordan. Many policymakers once saw Assad as “the devil you know,” believing that his rule was preferable to the unknown alternative. That strategy proved flawed when Assad fell and nobody had a plan to counter an Islamist takeover.
The same logic applies to Jordan, where the Hashemite monarchy is even more precarious. Unlike the Assads, who were native Syrians, Jordan’s ruling family descends from Saudi Arabia. A leaked U.S. diplomatic cable once described them as “a non-Jordanian family” fearing “a tribal coup.” That ethnic and political detachment has long been a source of instability.
Given these risks, the U.S. must have a contingency plan for potential regime change in Jordan. Although instability presents challenges, it also offers opportunities — namely, reviving the long discussed “Jordan Option.”
The Palestinian issue remains at the heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict, driven in large part by the Palestinians’ statelessness. Decades of external influence — from Western powers to Arab regimes — have perpetuated their situation. Historically, Jordan was designated as the Palestinian homeland under the 1921 San Remo Accords and the Treaty of Sèvres. Today, over 80% of Jordan’s population is of Palestinian descent, and those Jordanians have historically driven the country’s economy.
The idea of Jordan as a Palestinian state is not new. In 1970, secretary of State Henry Kissinger proposed Palestinian control of Jordan as a resolution to the Palestinian issue, calling it a path toward “a Palestinian settlement.” President Nixon, however, rejected the plan. The Pakistani army arrived in Jordan, expelled the Palestinian militias, and secured King Hussein’s throne.
Today, and despite their demographic dominance, Palestinians in Jordan face systemic discrimination and apartheid policies, excluded from political and economic power by Abdullah’s regime, which relies on a Bedouin minority to maintain control.
Moreover, King Abdullah has strategically aligned himself with Islamist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood (M.B.). Officially, Hamas is considered the “Palestine Chapter of Jordan’s M.B.” The king has empowered Islamist factions while suppressing secular opposition, amending laws to favor Islamist parties and allowing radical elements to thrive.
Since the October 7, 2023 Hamas terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians, Abdullah and Queen Rania have escalated anti-Israel rhetoric, organized protests, and encouraged radicalism, often with the backing of Jordanian intelligence services.
The consequences of this approach are stark. Jordan’s debt exceeds 100% of its GDP, and the country is facing unprecedented poverty. Meanwhile, Abdullah has been exposed before the world as owning a real estate empire in Western countries and huge bank accounts in Western banks. This news is insult added to injury for the impoverished people of Jordan.
In addition, weapons-smuggling operations along the border with Israel — sometimes linked to figures close to the king — further destabilize the region. Jordanian member of Parliament Emad Adwan was caught smuggling weapons into Israel, raising concerns about the monarchy’s role in fostering instability or at best failing to protect its own borders.
As explained in the previous lines, Witkoff is right: Jordan’s king is in a precarious position. While the U.S. is not by any chance seeking regime change, internal unrest or military intervention could lead to his downfall. If that happens, a Palestinian-led government is the most likely successor, given the country’s demographic realities; the Palestinian majority will elect a Palestinian leader.
The U.S. should have a Plan B for Jordan. Should the king fall like Assad, the U.S. must be ready and able to usher in a secular Palestinian leader into an interim government. This leader must accept that U.S. support will come with stipulations that would resolve several core issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Right of Return: The first is that Jordan would grant full rights to its majority population, restoring Jordanian citizenship to Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. Instead of seeking mass resettlement inside Israel, Palestinian refugees could integrate into a Palestinian-ruled Jordan. This would improve living conditions for stateless Palestinians currently in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt.
Al-Aqsa Mosque: Currently managed by Jordan’s Waqf, which has played a role in fueling tensions, control of the site could shift to a secular Palestinian government, ensuring peaceful worship for both Jews and Muslims.
Palestinian Statehood: A Palestinian-controlled Jordan would eliminate the demand for a separate Palestinian state within Israel’s borders, shifting the focus toward governance in Jordan itself.
Additionally, a new Palestinian-Jordanian state could provide civil services — but not sovereignty — replacing those of the Palestinian Authority (P.A.) in the West Bank. The P.A., widely viewed as corrupt and ineffective, could be phased out, with Jordan assuming administrative services in Areas A and B. Israel would then annex Area C, which constitutes 60% of the West Bank, securing its territorial and security interests.
A Palestinian state in Jordan could also facilitate broader regional peace. With a recognized homeland for Palestinians, nations like Saudi Arabia could normalize relations with Israel, furthering the Abraham Accords and potentially paving the way for an Arab-Israeli security alliance, a sort of Middle East NATO. This would serve as a counterweight to Iranian influence and terrorist networks in the region.
A newly established Palestinian-led Jordan would not immediately function as a democracy. Given the history of instability in Palestinian-controlled areas — Lebanon, the West Bank, and Gaza — an interim government would be necessary. A secular, pro-peace leader would need to outlaw extremist groups, reform education, and suppress radicalism. This transitional period could be overseen with assistance from U.S. and Israeli intelligence, ensuring that Jordan does not fall into Islamist control.
Middle Eastern history suggests that interim rulers often transition into long-term leaders. A secular Palestinian administration in Jordan would likely evolve into a stable, cooperative government that could eventually democratize. With President Trump in the White House, there is less reason to fear an Islamist takeover, as was the case in Syria, where Biden presides over a full Islamist takeover of the country.
The opportunity exists to secure a lasting peace and finally resolve the Palestinian issue.
The future of Jordan is uncertain, but one thing is clear: Maintaining the status quo is not sustainable. The Hashemite monarchy’s grip on power is slipping, and when it falls, the U.S. and Israel must be ready with a Plan B — one that finally gives Palestinians their homeland in Jordan.
Mudar Zahran is a Jordanian Palestinian politician living in exile. He heads the Jordanian Opposition Coalition. He previously served as an economic specialist and assistant policy coordinator for the U.S. embassy in Amman. Zahran is a Ph.D. in political science — the Arab-Israeli conflict.
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