The protests that have rocked Gaza since March 24 have been able to maintain some momentum over the last several days. They have taken place during Ramadan and have also continued through the symbolic night called Laylat al-Qadr, which occurs toward the end of Ramadan.
The protests have also continued through Friday. Fridays tend to be important days for many Muslims who attend mosques that day, and they have added importance during Ramadan.
However, the protests have lacked focus and leadership, making it difficult for them to advance demands or put forward any kind of method of governance that might replace Hamas. This is important.
Hamas is able to hide underground and wait out the protests. Hamas is also able to reorganize and target specific protesters who might emerge as leaders.
Hamas does not appear to feel it is under pressure. While the protests are unprecedented, Hamas does not seem open to concessions. In addition, Arab states do not seem to be welcoming this opportunity at leadership change in Gaza.
Why are so few countries involved in working with the protesters or leveraging them? Many countries likely fear the street power of protesters more than they fear Hamas. Countries such as Egypt have been accommodating to Hamas over the last several years. Countries such as Jordan may back the Palestinian Authority, but they don’t want protesters in their own country getting any ideas. Many leaders saw the success of the Syrian revolution and how it led to the fall of the Assad regime, and don’t want to end up like Assad.
Israeli views on the protests
Israel also seems skeptical of the protests. Some online commentators have spread conspiracies that suggest that Hamas actually runs the protests. They also point out that the protesters are not calling for peace for Israel. When the bar is set so high for the protesters, it is unlikely they can ever please some voices in Israel.
Israeli leaders have generally preferred Hamas running Gaza over the last decade and a half, to having the Palestinian Authority run Gaza. If the protesters were able to topple Hamas, then they would likely want new leadership in the form of working with the legitimate Palestinian Authority government in Ramallah.
Israel doesn’t see the protesters handing over hostages or disarming Hamas. Israel is still waging a new campaign in Gaza that began on March 18. So far, the campaign has been slow and relatively limited. It is similar to how Israel ran campaigns last year, going in slowly to nibble away at areas around the urban areas of Gaza.
Israel uses its technological advances to move slowly and make sure that soldiers’ lives are not risked. After calling up 300,000 reservists in the wake of the October 7 attack, it’s clear many Israelis don’t look fondly on another year of reserve service after having put in service for most of 2024.
In addition, members of the ruling government of Israel are haredi parties who oppose service. This means Israel’s government is divided between wanting to lead a new campaign against Hamas and also work with the haredi parties who don’t want their children serving. This puts Israel between a rock and a hard place. Israeli soldiers and civilians are held hostage in Gaza. How can they be freed after more than 500 days of the inability to defeat Hamas?
For this reason, the protests in Gaza lack the ability to get to the next step that protests need to achieve to get real achievements. Since so few countries in the region benefit from the protests, they receive no support. In addition, the powerful backers of Hamas in Doha and Ankara do not back the protests.
For this reason, some online commentators who back Hamas spread rumors against the protesters to undermine them. Furthermore, since Hamas controls much of the media access in Gaza, and therefore, only friendly media, such as Al Jazeera, get good access via Hamas, there is little coverage. Al Jazeera is based in Doha and only covers protests in the region when Doha backs the protests. Doha prefers Hamas in charge of Gaza and Hamas leaders live in Doha. The protesters are an inconvenience.
It’s not clear what comes next for the protests. They have surmounted some obstacles, but many remain. They will require staying power, leadership, a focus for their demands, and also some support if they are to achieve the next steps.
Meanwhile, Israel has to weigh whether it will expand its operations in Gaza as the protests take place. It’s hard to navigate an army amid protests, and Israel prefers to evacuate Gazans.
It’s hard to evacuate protesters at the same time, as the protesters want to be rid of Hamas. This also puts the protests between a rock and a hard place. If they are evacuated, they will likely stop protesting or potentially be squeezed into areas Hamas still dominates.
They gained fuel when Hamas went to ground on March 18. Now, they face a crossroads.
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