The Trump Administration’s Support for the Israel-Azerbaijan Strategic Partnership Can Benefit America
President Donald J. Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly stopped in Baku, Azerbaijan, after taking off from Moscow on March 14th, just hours after Armenia and Azerbaijan announced an agreement on key terms for a peace treaty to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute and normalize relations between the two countries. Details of Witkoff’s discussions remain unknown at the time of this writing. However, this may signal that Washington is attuned to the potential strategic benefits of engaging more closely with the Azerbaijanis in the fast-changing international environment.
Today, the adversaries of the United States are increasingly united. The CRINK (an acronym for the alliance of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) has transformed from an irritant to a dire threat to the international order. This is happening while the Western alliance and the globe’s status quo powers are pulling apart, especially considering the recent avoidable rupture between America and Europe.
Navigating the choppy international waters requires deft diplomacy and cooperation with credible actors opposed to the CRINK. For the past thirty years, Israel and Azerbaijan, the Jewish state and a Shi’a Muslim-majority secular country, have been strengthening their ties, spurred on not just by shared animosity towards Iran but also a shared cooperative vision.
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A group of prominent rabbis has recently appealed to President Trump to include Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords framework. At the same time, Israel has advocated for Azerbaijan by proposing the end of all sanctions against it. The Trump administration should support these developments, which can contribute to more unity amongst America’s allies, weaken Iran, and, crucially, ease tensions in the Greater Middle East.
On March 1, Iran Daily published a front-page article titled “Israel’s Growing Footprint In Azerbaijan Raises Red Alert,” calling on all Iranian state actors to pay attention to a the report by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA), an Israeli think-tank, concerning the trilateral alliance between Washington, Jerusalem, and Baku. Iran Daily serves as the Iranian regime’s mouthpiece. Clearly, the Iranian authorities are concerned about BESA’s recommendations to the Trump administration, Israel’s growing presence in the South Caucasus, and the administration’s plans to expand the Abraham Accords. Tehran views these as threatening its national security and regional ambitions.
Tehran’s rulers, who have long maintained close ties with Armenia, cannot be happy about the announced peace terms between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Iran has continued to provide political and economic support to Yerevan, considering it a counterbalance to Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Meanwhile, Iran’s relationship with Azerbaijan is complex. Despite economic cooperation, Baku’s ties with Israel are viewed as a serious challenge. In response, Tehran seeks to increase its influence through various diplomatic channels and military cooperation with other regional players, such as Russia.
Now, with the prospects of a peace treaty coming soon, Tehran likely fears that Washington may lift sanctions under Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which could expand military support for Azerbaijan. There is also deep concern about U.S. efforts to involve Azerbaijan in regional security programs to contain Iran.
Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Israel dates back to the former’s independence after the breakup of the Soviet Union. The groundwork was laid during a high-level summit between Israeli and Azeri leaders in 1997. Israel has been a major importer of Azerbaijan’s energy since the 1990s. Azerbaijan provides more than 50 percent of the gasoline consumed by Israel, and Jerusalem is Baku’s sixth-largest market for oil exports. Azerbaijan also imports weapons from Israel. In the 2010s, Baku imported 27 percent of its arms from Israel, which grew to 69 percent by the 2016-2020 period.
Azerbaijan and Israel have begun expanding their cooperation in recent weeks. On March 17, a delegation from the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) will visit Israel to sign an agreement on buying a 10 percent stake in Israel’s Tamar gas field and to announce further energy deals on Israel’s Mediterranean coast. Israel’s Minister of National Missions, Orit Strock, recently said that Israel-Azerbaijan relations “are built on a unique partnership founded on mutual interests and a long-standing friendship. Israel will continue to enhance its cooperation with Azerbaijan and the United States.”
The partnership with Baku has shown that Israel recognizes the importance of the South Caucasus and sees Azerbaijan as a key ally in the region. As a result of the escalation of violence across the Middle East since October 2023, Israel needs allies more than ever. It would benefit from strengthening the Abraham Accords and furthering its cooperation with Azerbaijan. Iran, meanwhile, is seeking to counteract these developments by intensifying its diplomacy with China, Russia, and North Korea.
Amid this geopolitical competition, the Trump administration must develop a comprehensive strategy to strengthen its allies and counter hostile actions from Iran. By bringing Baku and Jerusalem closer together and expanding the Abraham Accords, Washington would contribute to further weakening its CRINK adversaries, while easing Muslim-Jewish tensions in the Middle East and globally. Trump has a rare opportunity to promote sustainable peace and advance America’s interests.
Zoltán Fehér is a diplomat-scholar and a geostrategist. He worked as a professional diplomat for Hungary for 12 years, serving as a Foreign Policy Analyst in Washington DC and as Acting Ambassador in Ankara, Turkey. He is currently based in Washington DC, working as a Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub as well as a Visiting Scholar and Professorial Lecturer at George Washington University. He has taught International Relations at Harvard, MIT, Tufts, and leading Hungarian universities. He holds a PhD in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Tufts University) and a Master in Public Administration from Harvard University.
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