Israel’s airstrikes in Syria overnight between April 2 and 3 were aimed at striking “military capabilities that remained at the Syrian bases of Hama and T4, along with additional remaining military infrastructure sites in the area of Damascus,” the IDF said. However, many reports in Israeli media indicate that the strikes were also meant as a message to Turkey. Ankara may be eyeing the T-4 base and other sites to play a larger role in Syria.
It appears increasingly that Israel would like to pre-empt any attempt by Ankara to put down roots in Syria. In addition, this can serve as a way to deter Ankara and prevent further escalation. The question is whether this will work. Israel likely waited too long to confront Iran in Syria. Iran moved forces into Syria during the Syrian civil war. Later, Hezbollah and Iraqi militias followed, and then Iran used a land corridor via Syria to move weapons to Hezbollah. This entrenchment was a threat to Israel.
However, a pivot from confronting Iran in Syria to potentially confronting Turkey has many potential pitfalls. First of all, Turkey’s current presence in Syria is limited to northern Syria. This consists of a number of bases and posts. Turkey backs the Syrian National Army, a group of proxy militias. Now that Syria has a new government, the SNA is expected to be integrated into the new Syrian army. It is not clear if Turkey will withdraw from the areas it occupies. However, it appears Ankara may want to change gears. Turkey might want a deal to allow it to upgrade military airports in Syria, such as T4.
The big question is whether Israel wants to get involved in an open-ended campaign in Syria that not only involves potential tension with Ankara but also clashes with Syrians near the border. The clashes are increasing. Syria will likely wait to respond, but the clashes may encourage it to demand more help from Ankara. The strikes may have the opposite of the desired effect. The more Syria feels vulnerable, the more it may need Turkey.
Israel is already stuck in a war in Gaza that requires parts of several IDF divisions. The IDF also maintains several points in Lebanon and continues to strike Hezbollah. The West Bank has been quieter than it was in the past, but things could change. There are other issues in the region. The Houthis continue to attack Israel using ballistic missiles. Iran is also a potential threat. The Trump administration wants a deal with Iran.
‘Mow the grass’
Israel’s past policies have sought to manage conflicts and “mow the grass” of enemies. After October 7, Israel has appeared to want to be more assertive. This attempt to pre-empt threats, rather than manage them, appears to guide the Syria and Turkey policy today. However, Israel may find that it has traded one enemy in Syria, for another. Iran left Syria after the Assad regime fell. This was good news. However, instead of a peace dividend, it appears Israel is now being drawn into a new conflict. This will mean yet another front in Israel’s conflicts.
Turkey is not like Iran. Turkey is a NATO member. It has a strong economy and relatively good ties with Russia and the West. It also works with Iran. Ankara has a strong military defense sector. Unlike Iran, it has a strong conventional army, and it produces military equipment that is reliable. Iran, by contrast, is much weaker even though it has drones, ballistic missiles, and a nuclear program. Ankara has sought to isolate Israel and also condemn it in recent years. A confrontation with Ankara in Syria might be more complex than one with Iran.
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