Turkey appears to be downplaying tensions with Israel in Syria. This comes as Israel has ramped up strikes on sites such as T-4 near Palmyra and Israeli media have openly said this is a message to Ankara.
Ankara is usually more bellicose and prone to shouting and threatening. Why has Ankara’s hotheaded president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has compared Israel to Nazi Germany in the past, held off on threats about Syria?
There are several answers. The first is the most obvious. Turkey wants positive ties with the new Trump administration. It knows that the administration is very pro-Israel. It knows that Israel appears to have support in the White House that goes beyond support for any other country.
For instance, the Trump administration has been willing to challenge America’s traditional and historic allies, such as Canada or the US; and also impose tariffs on friends and foes alike, but the administration is deeply supportive of Israel. This might not always be the case but it is now. This means Israel has the ear of key administration members more than Turkey. Ankara knows this and likely prefers not to rock the boat, at least not year.
Turkey had close ties to the first Trump administration and expects these ties to continue. However, it also knows that it must be careful not to anger the administration. Turkey has already done outreach, particularly to Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State. However, it has yet to have a high-profile meeting with Trump, while Israel’s Prime Minister has already held one meeting and is already back in Washington for a new round of meetings.
Turkey was not afraid of challenging Israel during the first Trump term. When the US moved its embassy to Jerusalem, Ankara led the opposition to the move. When the Abraham Accords were about to be signed, Turkey threatened to break relations with the UAE.
Rethinking strategy
Turkey also threatened US forces in Syria and threatened Greece. It created chaos within NATO. However, it may rethink this strategy this time. Perhaps Ankara thinks that playing nice over Syria could be a long con of salesmanship. Basically, Turkey wants things in Syria, but it can wait.
Turkey also may have been taken by surprise by how aggressive Israel was in Syria. Israel has carried out airstrikes for years in Syria, so Israel’s strikes were not particularly surprising. However, the fact that Israeli media made it clear that strikes on T-4 or at a military airport near Hamas were a message to Ankara illustrates a new approach. This is pre-emption. Israel usually let problems fester in the past, allowing Hamas or Hezbollah to grow very powerful. In Syria, the name of the game is pre-emption.
Israel’s Ynet had an analysis this week that noted, “Israel, Turkey ponder how to split Syria into spheres of influence until stable governance takes hold.” The writer, Ron Ben-Yishai, a well-known expert, noted, “as Israel and Turkey vie for influence in post-Assad Syria, tensions rise over military and economic ambitions; While Israel seeks to counter Turkey’s growing presence, both nations explore mediated agreements to divide control until Syria stabilizes.”
Turkey can read this as well and understands that this message likely comes from the top of Israel’s circles of strategic thinking. Israel may have gotten Gaza wrong and underestimated Hamas, but Ankara sees that Israel is not underestimating Turkey. Israel knows that Turkey wants to move into bases in Syria. Clearly, the messaging is designed to deter. While Iran, the Houthis, and others may not have always been deterred, it appears that Ankara may be rethinking things. It remains to be seen how long this will continue.
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