Shortly after then-Secretary of State John Kerry concluded talks with his Iranian counterpart that led to the 2015 nuclear agreement, the wizards at Google had already delivered judgment. When I typed in the phrase, “how not to buy a carpet” at Google images, the first result was a photo of the two foreign ministers and their aides, facing each other across the negotiating table in Lausanne.
The ever-smiling Mohammad Javad Zarif told Kerry three times they had a deal, but that he needed to go back to Tehran to run it by the “Supreme Leader.” And three times he came back, demanding more.
Donald Trump called the deal the United States finally signed, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), “the worst deal ever” and withdrew the United States from it in 2018. He was right.
The President’s Middle East special envoy, Steve Witcoff, recently admitted that he got “duped” by Hamas during negotiations in Qatar with Hamas-appointed Arab mediators.
Having worked in the Middle East as a war correspondent and investigative reporter for forty years, let me say it straight: if the Arabs managed to dupe Mr. Witcoff, the Iranians are going to take him to the cleaners.
So here are a few “do’s and dont’s” for Witcoff when he travels to Oman this weekend.
Rule #1: Always be prepared to walk out
The Iranians invariably win at negotiations because the other party wants the deal more than they do.
The media echo chamber run out of the Obama White House while Kerry was negotiating in Switzerland drummed into us the notion that it was the deal or war. The Iranians knew very well that wasn’t true. Obama was never prepared to go to war with Iran. He wasn’t even prepared to maintain sanctions on Iran if Kerry walked. That gave Kerry zero leverage.
President Trump has made very clear this time that if the Iranians don’t agree to fully dismantle their nuclear infrastructure, there will be “hell to pay.” That gives Witcoff substantial credibility from the moment he walks into the room. So does the pre-positioning of B2 “Spirit” bombers on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Rule #2: No negotiations about negotiations
The Iranians love to talk about the size and shape of the table. And the participants. And the intermediaries. Witcoff must make clear that neither he nor the president finds their games amusing.
They get one shot at this. If they keep their foreign minister in an adjacent suite while the Omanis transmit messages back and forth, Witcoff should walk out. If they want negotiations to continue, they can crawl back.
Rule #3: Make the end state crystal clear from the beginning
The Iranians will attempt to redefine the subject of the negotiations from the get-go. They will say they are ready to resume where they left off with the JCPOA, and that the only reason they have been enriching uranium to 60% is because the U.S. walked out in 2018.
Witcoff’s response must be crystal clear: We are not here to discuss the JCPOA. We are here to discuss the dismantling of your nuclear infrastructure, just as we did with Qaddafi in 2004.
Rule #4: Don’t get bogged down in side issues.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi knows the nuclear file inside and out, as he was the lead legal expert in the previous round of negotiations. He will raise a host of side issues, such as America’s alleged failure to uphold its commitments under the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the injustice of American sanctions, and the “bad faith” of the U.S. side.
Fars Media Corp.
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