In a striking twist of political irony, Donald Trump’s nationalist triumph in the United States appears to be undermining the very populist movements he has inspired abroad.
Nowhere is this paradox more evident than in Canada, where the former president’s dismissive “51st state” rhetoric and aggressive tariff threats have catalyzed a dramatic shift in political fortunes.
This is not a phenomenon unique to Canada, with similar effects in the UK and Australia. The ultra-virile nature of the second Trump administration and its deep isolationist diplomacy is redefining patriotism in its closest allies, giving liberal politicians the opportunity to shine.
Canada’s surprising pivot
When Trump casually referred to Canada as America’s “51st state” in December 2024, few predicted the seismic political impact this offhand comment would trigger. Almost immediately, polling data showed a remarkable turnaround for the Liberal Party, with the trend strengthening under Mark Carney’s leadership. By April 2025, what once seemed an inevitable conservative victory has transformed into a commanding liberal lead.
The irony is impossible to miss: Carney embodies everything the populist Right opposes. A former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, ex-board member of the World Economic Forum, and adviser to the United Nations on climate change, he embodies the international financial establishment – the very “globalist elite” that Trump and his ideological architect Steve Bannon have built careers denouncing. By conventional populist logic, Carney should be political kryptonite in our antiestablishment, anti-elite, anti-expert era.
Yet Trump’s rhetoric has accomplished what seemed impossible – transforming a technocratic central banker into a defender of Canadian sovereignty and identity. When Carney forcefully responded that “America is not Canada. And Canada will never, ever… be a part of America in any way, shape or form,” he captured a surging national sentiment that has transcended traditional partisan divisions.
Suddenly, the progressive camp is the home for patriots.
The UK’s populist predicament
This dynamic isn’t limited to Canada. In the United Kingdom, Nigel Farage – perhaps Europe’s most recognizable populist, enthusiastic Trump supporter, and architect of Brexit – finds himself in an increasingly untenable position. Having campaigned openly for Trump and sharing his anti-immigration and anti-progressive platform, Farage now navigates the uncomfortable reality of Trump’s controversial relationship with Vladimir Putin and aggressive approach toward traditional allies. Thus, together with Elon Musk’s personal attacks on the UK prime minister and support for Tommy Robinson, Trumpism has become toxic.
Unlike in America, there is no significant isolationist movement in British politics. Support for Ukraine remains strong across the political spectrum, and Putin is widely viewed as a threat to European security.
Trump’s positions on these issues create an impossible balancing act for Farage, who must somehow reconcile his admiration for Trump with British national interests and public opinion. In a recent YouGov poll of Brits, Musk achieved an 81% totally unfavorable personal rating, slightly worse even than Trump himself (at 78%).
Finally, and in spite of low popularity, Australia’s Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is making a comeback in the polls ahead of the federal elections, and seems on course for victory. According to a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Joshua Kurlantzick, “Albanese has been forceful about fighting Trump’s tariffs and defending Australia’s pharmaceutical industry, which Trump is targeting. Once a publicly easygoing politician, he has resonated a much tougher image these days.”
In less than eight weeks a 20-point deficit to the opposition, led by conservative Peter Dutton, has become a six-point lead for Labor. An amazing turnaround.
Kurlantzick concludes: “Barring some dramatic change, Albanese and Labor likely will ride the Trump effect and Dutton’s mishaps to reelection.”
The nationalist boomerang effect
What we’re witnessing might be called the “nationalist boomerang” – when one country’s overassertive nationalism triggers defensive nationalist responses elsewhere, ultimately undermining ideologically aligned movements.
Trump’s brand of America First diplomacy, characterized by treating allies as competitors and threatening economic punishment, validates the traditional diplomatic establishment’s warnings about the dangers of populist leadership, providing real-world evidence of the chaos populists claimed only they could prevent.
The expansion of Trump’s tariff threats beyond China to include trusted allies such as Canada, the EU, and Mexico (but excluding Russia) has only accelerated this effect. What began as economic nationalism has evolved into economic bullying in the eyes of many citizens in affected countries. This perception directly contradicts populists’ carefully cultivated image as defenders of the common citizen against powerful international forces.
Global implications
The question now becomes whether this pattern will repeat across other democracies. Rather than a unified global populist movement as Bannon and others envisioned, we may instead see a fragmentation where American populism stands increasingly alone.
For Canadian voters, the upcoming election has transformed from a referendum on domestic issues into a statement about national autonomy. The Conservative Party now faces the unenviable task of balancing its traditional pro-American stance with the need to defend Canadian interests against a president who views international relationships exclusively through a transactional lens.
Since the US is Israel’s most important ally, this self-imposed isolation of the US could become a real challenge, as Israel is increasingly forced to align with America First (rather than the old bipartisan America), putting further at odds its relations with the other key Western allies. Seeing Israel’s prime minister squirm next to the president in the White House, as he talked over his head about Iran and tariffs, does not inspire confidence.
A lesson in political humility
Perhaps the most profound lesson in this unfolding situation is the limited transferability of populist movements across borders. The very nationalism that fuels these movements ultimately contains the seeds of international friction between them.
Carney’s unlikely ascendance and Albanese’s revival represent not so much a victory for globalism but a pragmatic nationalism – one that recognizes that Canada’s sovereignty and Australian interests are best preserved through international cooperation rather than isolation.
The greatest irony may be that Trump, in his quest to make America great again, has inadvertently reminded Canadians, Britons, Australians, and others of the value of the international order his movement seeks to dismantle.
On the one hand Trump has highlighted and politically profited from the negative aspects of global governance and global trade, but in the way he has done so, he may have dealt the most significant blow yet to the global populist project he helped inspire.
The writer is founding partner of Goldrock Capital and founder of The Institute for Jewish and Zionist Research. He currently cochairs the Coalition for Haredi Employment and is a former chairman of Gesher and World Bnei Akiva.
Jesus Christ is King
