It is wishful thinking to believe that on the “day after” the war we will see in Gaza an organized political entity capable of maintaining a monopoly on the use of military force that will prevent terrorism against Israeli targets. A strong political entity that would agree to thwart violence against Israel is a desirable option, but there are many reasons why we will not see it realized.
The ability of Israel or even of the superpowers to politically engineer states in the Middle East is very limited. Israel failed to change the government in Lebanon after invading it in 1982. The United States, with its large army and vast resources, failed to implant democratic regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq. Even the Soviet Union, which intervened militarily in Afghanistan with fewer restraints than democratic America, failed to turn it into a Soviet satellite.
Israel cannot determine the future of the Palestinian people
Israel’s war in Gaza may perhaps eliminate most of Hamas’s military capabilities and remove the organization’s leadership from Gaza, similar to the expulsion of the PLO from Lebanon in 1982, but it will not turn Gaza into a proper state as long as Palestinians are there. The use of force has limitations.
Indeed, Israeli military power cannot moderate the deep-rooted hostility of the Palestinian national movement toward the Zionist entity. This hostility defines the essence of Palestinian nationalism. The religious fervor of the Islamist Hamas reinforced the negative religious attitudes toward Jews, instilling in the hearts of young Gazans a desire to take revenge on the hated Jews. The horrors of October 7 are painful evidence of this phenomenon.In the absence of a reformed Palestinian education system, wherever there are Palestinians, there will be terrorism against Israel.
Moreover, many Arab states failed to establish a monopoly on the use of force in their territory. Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, and Sudan are countries with civil wars or armed militias that do not obey the central government.
This was also the fate of two Palestinian entities: the Palestinian Authority and Hamas-controlled Gaza. Within the PA, there are still armed groups with their own agenda. And even in Gaza, alongside Hamas, Islamic Jihad and armed clans have existed. There is no reason to assume that on the “day after,” Gaza will be much different. Only Israeli military activity can maintain its demilitarization.
Israeli attempts to persuade Arab countries with a different political culture to send soldiers or police to establish proper governance in Gaza have not yet succeeded. Their commitment to their Palestinian brothers is questionable, as well as their determination to confront the remnants of Hamas. After all, the ruins of Gaza and its residents are not enticing.
An inter-Arab consortium is not an option
Therefore, the rule of some inter-Arab consortium is not an option with a high chance of materializing. This is certainly true as long as the IDF does not achieve the war’s goal – to uproot Hamas from Gaza. Hamas will not rush to cooperate with a plan designed to end its rule in Gaza.
Emptying the Gaza Strip of its residents according to the plan of US President Donald Trump is a good starting point for a new future. However, most likely Hamas will use armed resistance to prevent the transfer of Gazans to places of safety.
Meanwhile, there is not much willingness among countries around the world to receive Gazans. It is not surprising that many nations are reluctant to absorb graduates of Hamas’s education system. It is also unclear who would be willing to donate hundreds of billions of dollars for the rebuilding of the destroyed Strip.
In the absence of a decent political infrastructure, any external aid or investments will be wasted. Therefore, the feasibility of Trump’s plan is in doubt despite the fact that it could be the best thing for the poor Gazans, many of whom have shown an interest in starting a new chapter in their lives elsewhere.Another possibility is to bring the PA into Gaza.
This is the preferred option for most of the international community. The PA is weak and often turns a blind eye to terrorist activities against Israel. But because of its weakness, it allows Israeli military freedom of action in its territory. It is also accustomed to cooperating with Israel against Hamas. The PA is not the ideal solution, but such solutions are not always available.
In contrast, right-wing extremists in the government dream of settlement and annexation of Gaza. In their ideological fervor, their strategic blindness ignores the diplomatic problems of this option. Annexation also exacerbates the conflict with the Palestinians and will increase tensions with those Arab states ready for peace with Israel.
Military rule or annexation does not solve the security problems arising from a very hostile population. Also, as a permanent Israeli presence in Gaza does not command national consensus, it is unwise to add another bone of contention to Israel’s divided society.
Perhaps Israel needs to get used to the idea that, in the absence of an entity willing to take Gaza under its wing, chaos will prevail there. This is less terrible than people think. Chaos will allow Israel to establish buffer zones along the Gaza border without interference. Of course, any entity controlling Gaza would oppose such zones and resist necessary Israeli measures to reduce terrorism. Chaos may also encourage emigration.
Israel is doomed to live with bad neighbors for a long time. There is no way to ensure zero terrorism.
Israel should avoid a containment policy and having to constantly “mow the grass,” minimizing the chances for a large threat emerging from beyond the border. Going to war might be necessary once in a while, understanding that it is not the last one. If Jews want a state in their homeland, they need to internalize that Israel will have to live by the sword for many more years.
The writer is the head of the Strategy, Diplomacy and Security Program at the Shalem Academic Center and a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).
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