Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition has dropped to just 48 Knesset seats—its lowest point since the beginning of the year—according to a new Maariv poll published on Friday.
The poll, conducted between Wednesday and Thursday, surveyed 500 Israeli adults—both Jews and Arabs—and carries a maximum sampling error of ±4.4%.
Amid mounting tensions, including a missile strike on Ben-Gurion Airport, the suspension of flights by most foreign airlines, the issuing of tens of thousands of reserve duty orders ahead of intensified fighting in the Gaza Strip, and the unresolved hostage crisis, the governing bloc has seen continued erosion of public support.
Meanwhile, the opposition has risen to 62 seats—a majority that could allow it to form a coalition without relying on the Arab parties.
The poll presents several political scenarios, one of which includes a party led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett. In this configuration, Bennett’s party drops two seats to 24, while Netanyahu’s bloc gains two, reaching 46. Nevertheless, the opposition, headed by Bennett, still holds a clear majority.
In a hypothetical race featuring two new parties—one led by Bennett and the other formed by IDF reservists—the Bennett-led party would receive 22 seats and the Reservists’ Party would gain seven. When these are combined with the remaining opposition factions, the bloc reaches a 64-seat majority. This mirrors the scenario in which only Bennett runs without the Reservists’ Party.
When respondents were asked which party they would vote for if elections were held today, Likud came in with 23 seats, an increase from 21 in the previous poll. Yisrael Beytenu followed with 17 seats, up from 16. National Unity remained steady at 16, as did the Democrats, who gained one seat to reach 16. Yesh Atid held steady at 13 seats.
Both Otzma Yehudit and Shas maintained nine seats each, while United Torah Judaism remained at seven. The Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am both retained five seats. Religious Zionism and Balad failed to cross the electoral threshold, polling at 2.3% and 1.9% respectively. Overall, the coalition bloc holds just 48 seats, down from 50, while the opposition commands 62, up from 60. The Arab parties maintain a total of 10 seats.
A scenario featuring a Bennett-led new party
In a separate scenario featuring a new Bennett-led party, support for Bennett fell to 24 seats, down from 26. Likud dropped to 21 seats, from 23. The Democrats stood at 11, while Yisrael Beytenu slipped to 10. Yesh Atid remained at 10 seats. Otzma Yehudit and Shas each held steady at nine seats, with National Unity climbing to nine seats from eight. United Torah Judaism held at seven seats, and both Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am stayed at five. Balad polled at 2% and Religious Zionism at 1.8%, both below the threshold. Under this arrangement, Netanyahu’s coalition would rise to 46 seats, up from 44, while the opposition bloc, led by Bennett, would control 64, slightly down from 66. The Arab parties again account for 10 seats.
Beyond party preferences, the poll also measured public opinion on key national issues. On the question of military conscription, 47% of respondents said they believe the best course is to send draft orders to all those obligated to serve, in accordance with the guidance of the IDF chief of staff. Meanwhile, 40% supported passing legislation to gradually bring the ultra-Orthodox into military service, and 13% were undecided.
The survey also revealed broad public support for the ongoing teachers’ strike, with 58% expressing approval, 30% opposing the action, and 12% expressing no opinion.
The poll was conducted by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in collaboration with Panel4All.
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