Israel is at risk of being outbid in Trump’s Middle East marketplace
On June 17, 2019, less than three months after US President Donald Trump recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the establishment of a new community in the northern Golan Heights called Ramat Trump (Trump Heights).
“We are proud to have the opportunity to establish a new community, and also to honor a big friend,” Netanyahu said at the opening of a special cabinet meeting held on the Golan Heights.
Netanyahu, alongside then-US ambassador David Friedman, unveiled a large sign set on synthetic grass featuring the name of the new community in large gold letters. The gesture was also in appreciation, Netanyahu said, for Trump’s decision to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem and for withdrawing from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal.
To a man who has everything, Israel gifted Trump by naming a remote community, now home to some 30 families, after the US president.
Fast forward six years, here’s a partial list of what Gulf state leaders, currently hosting Trump, have offered to honor him with: Qatar is set to gift him a $400 million aircraft, referred to as a “palace in the sky.” They also plan to invest $243 billion in the US economy, which includes the largest deal ever to acquire $96 billion worth of Boeing planes—part of a larger $1.2 trillion investment in Qatari intentions for the US.
Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest $600 billion in US initiatives and has formalized a $142 billion arms deal with the US. In addition, the United Arab Emirates has promised to invest over $1 trillion in the American economy.
In other words, while Israel expressed its appreciation with a small, wind-swept community, the Gulf states are lavishing Trump with hundreds of millions in gifts (not to mention business deals worth billions to his family and associates) and hundreds of billions in investments into the US economy.
For a transactional president, whose every diplomatic exchange seems filtered through the lens of “what’s in it for us,” this is a deeply uneven playing field for Israel. For instance, his decision to lift sanctions on Syria, announced at a speech in Saudi Arabia where he lavished praise on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was couched in the terms, “Oh, what I do for the crown prince.”
In other words, “I’m doing this for MBS.”
Of course he is. With that kind of money being dangled before his eyes, why not do the crown prince a favor—after all, the Saudis are angling to be a central actor in Syria—and ease sanctions on Syria? And if Israel is worried about the ramifications, well, let it worry. This, after all, is in America’s interest. And the interest? Keeping the Saudis happy.
Israel can’t compete against Gulf states
Against that financial backdrop, Israel simply can’t compete. Trump was likely pleased to hear that Netanyahu floated the idea this week in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of beginning to wean Israel off the $3.8 billion in annual US military aid, part of the current 10-year Memorandum of Understanding set to expire in 2028. But compared to the hundreds of billions now flowing into the US from the Gulf, that $4 billion is a mere pittance.
A “fact sheet” the White House released Wednesday announcing “Trump Secures Historic $1.2 Trillion Economic Commitment in Qatar” referred to him as the “dealmaker-in-chief.” That label didn’t come from Trump’s critics; it came from his own team and captures much of what this trip is about.
With poll numbers sagging, the trip offers a chance to inject new momentum into his presidency. If he returns home with headlines touting trillions in new investments—marketed as part of his America First agenda—it will play well with disgruntled voters angry about the impact of tariffs on their lives, who may now say, “Look, he is delivering.”
But this “America First” approach—where what’s good for America is defined almost exclusively in terms of dollars and deals—puts him on a collision course with Israel over key issues: Iran, the Houthis, Syria, massive Saudi arms deals, and even the possibility of US support for a civilian nuclear program in the kingdom.
For this White House, each of these issues seems viewed through an economic prism: the cost of striking Iran’s nuclear program, weighed against the fallout a retaliatory strike on Saudi and UAE oil fields may have on the US economy; the cost of an extended bombing campaign against the Houthis; the benefit of easing sanctions on Syria as a way of repaying Saudi Arabia and the UAE for their economic largesse.
This marks a shift in US emphasis in the region. American policy in the Middle East was once a balancing act—sometimes better, sometimes worse—between interests and values. Now, the scale has tipped heavily toward interests, and increasingly, economic ones.
Or as Trump put it in a speech in Saudi Arabia: “In recent years, far too many American presidents have been afflicted with the notion that it’s our job to look into the souls of foreign leaders and use US policy to dispense justice for their sins … I believe it is God’s job to sit in judgment — my job [is] to defend America and to promote the fundamental interests of stability, prosperity, and peace.”
In other words, values don’t matter much. And that shift puts Israel at a disadvantage. One of the pillars of the US-Israel relationship has long been the idea of shared values—Americans looking at Israel and seeing themselves. Strategic interests played a key role, too, but values were a powerful selling point. If values no longer carry the same weight, and it’s all about interests, particularly economic ones, then, as the contrast between Trump Heights and Gulf checkbooks makes clear, Israel is at risk of being outbid.
Israel needs to adjust its strategy
This is the new Middle East: less about shared values, more about shared ventures; less about moral affinity, more about material gain. And Israel, if it wants to stay in the game, needs to adjust its strategy accordingly.
That doesn’t mean scrapping the values argument. It still matters to many Americans—and to many in Congress. But it can no longer stand on its own. In a world where diplomatic favor is earned not through ideals but through investment and opportunity, Israel must learn to speak in a currency that resonates with Trump and his inner circle: jobs, dollars, and deliverables.
That means identifying ways to frame the US-Israel relationship in transactional terms, without undermining its deeper foundations. Israeli tech that creates American jobs. Defense cooperation that benefits both sides. Trilateral ventures with Gulf states that show Israel contributing to regional economic success.
At the same time, Israel would do well to deepen its behind-the-scenes diplomacy—not just in the White House, but on Capitol Hill, at the Pentagon, and with Evangelical leaders who continue to view the alliance through the lens of shared destiny. These relationships don’t carry billion-dollar price tags, but they do have political weight.
In Trump’s world, influence flows through deals. Israel now needs to rethink how it asserts its value to Washington: not through nostalgia or assumed goodwill, but through enhanced defense and intelligence cooperation, investments and initiatives that benefit the US economy, tangible deliverables, and quiet, calculated diplomacy.