Reports on Sunday, May 18 indicated that Mohammed Sinwar may have been killed in an airstrike last week. Al-Hadath reported that his body, along with a number of his assistants and another Hamas commander, were found in Gaza. The IDF did not initially comment. However, the killing of Sinwar once again raises the question why more isn’t being done to replace Hamas and provide Gazans an alternative to the group.
When the October 7 attack happened one of the statements from Israeli officials was to compare Hamas to ISIS. There were claims that when the war was over there “won’t be Hamas” in Gaza. This goal has shifted a bit over the year 19 months to claims of “total victory” and also eroding Hamas “military and governance capabilities.” The latter goal will leave Hamas in power. Israel has fought for 19 months in one of its worst, most gruelling wars in history, and yet the goal is not clear.
The opportunity exists in Gaza to replace Hamas. Most Hamas leaders who were alive on October 7 in Gaza are now deceased. Hamas company, battalion and brigade commanders have almost all been killed. In some cases they have been killed, replaced, killed and replaced. This means Hamas has had a chance often to fill holes in its ranks. However, each time it has filled them it has usually had to put in place men with less experience. The Hamas leadership is devastated.
Usually in war when all the commanders are dead a military won’t function well. Terrorist groups are also susceptible to this. Groups can’t function when all the leaders have been killed. In many cases in war a unit will cease to function when it suffers twenty to fifty percent casualties. Hamas units have been decimated. According to reports it would appear many of the Hamas “battalions” that exists on October 7 have suffered more than fifty percent casualties and lost almost all their commanders.
When Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed there was no priority put on exploiting his death to rapidly move to enable Hamas to be replaced. Instead the IDF’s campaign has mostly proceeded at a slow pace, very systematically and methodically, without any attempt to take advantage of changing conditions on the battlefield or changes in Hamas leadership. This campaign is often waged as if Hamas is not actually present on the other side. What this means is that the enemy appears to be quantified into a system, with not much thought given to “what do we do if Hamas leaders are killed.”
The same lack of imagination seems to have underpinned planning before October 7. A new report at The Wall Street Journal indicates Hamas wanted to derail Israel’s normalization with Saudi Arabia. This was a clear goal of Iran and Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. This was well known before October 7. All that wasn’t known was exactly how they wanted to do this. Hamas clearly was the “how.” Yet very little though was given to bolstering the Gaza border defenses. Instead the border was stripped of soldiers and it was treated almost like a peace border.
No clear process in place to replace Hamas
Today the problem continues to persist. There is no clear process in place to replace Hamas. There has been no attempt to even replace it on the local level when there are protests, such as in Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza. Unlike in previous successful wars against regimes such as the Nazis, where the war ended with them being replaced by non-Nazi civilian leadership; there has been no attempt to bring forward civilian leadership in Gaza. Israel’s leaders say they don’t want the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. They also claim they don’t want Hamas governing. However, the result has been to leave a power vacuum that Hamas continues to fill.
The death of Mohammed Sinwar could enable another chance to replace Hamas. Replacing it would also mean bringing the hostages home. The Gulf states such as the UAE appear to want Hamas replaced. He current plan of Gideon’s Chariots envisions Israel moving many Gazans to southern Gaza and a new US-backed humanitarian initiative taking shape. However, there is no corollary to the plan where Gazans get to have non-Hamas leaders. There’s no vision in place to exploit the weakness of Hamas to finally get rid of it.
In the past Hamas leaders have been killed and replaced. However, never in past forty years has Hamas had so many leaders and commanders killed. If the goal was ever to replace Hamas, now would be the time. Leaving it weakened will mean it returns to fill the vacuum in Gaza.
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