The current negotiations between Iran and the US are simply a game for the Islamic Republic, an expert revealed to Maariv.
Beni Sabti, a senior researcher on Iranian affairs at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), argued that the recent spike in rhetoric surrounding Iran’s nuclear program is less about an imminent war and more about political maneuvering by both Iran and its adversaries.
In the wake of reports suggesting Israeli readiness to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities independently, and following a reported ultimatum from former US President Donald Trump to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Sabti offered a more grounded interpretation.
“This isn’t a new crisis—it’s a familiar Iranian chess game,” Sabti told Maariv. “What many see as dangerous threats are often bluffs, ones even the Iranian public doesn’t take seriously.”
Regarding ongoing nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, Sabti predicted more delay tactics from Tehran:“The Iranians will likely propose so-called compromises just to push back deadlines. That’s how they operate. They hold onto cards and play them when the timing suits them.”
According to Sabti, Iran still has room to maneuver diplomatically.
“There’s still space to compromise – on uranium enrichment levels, international inspections, even centrifuge operations – if Iran chooses to do so.”
Recent Israeli military actions, particularly in Yemen, have reignited debate over whether Jerusalem could act independently against Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Sabti was unequivocal: “Israel has the operational capability. Militarily and physically, there is no barrier to such an action.”
However, he warned of a critical caveat. “The main issue is coordination with the US – whether America would provide intelligence or defensive support during a strike.”
Dismissing Iranian threats
Sabti is openly dismissive of Iranian threats, particularly from IRGC commander Hossein Salami, who he said is ridiculed even within Iran.
“Salami makes threats every other day. Nothing new. Inside Iran, he’s seen as illiterate and is mocked. He’s not someone who worries us.”
Sabti also highlighted the technological and strategic gap between the two countries. “Israel has modern capabilities. Iran, in contrast, is stuck in the 1970s. Their air force is practically non-functional, flying aircraft that are 60 years old. That’s not how you confront a regional power.”
Beyond the geopolitical theater, Sabti pointed to deepening unrest within Iran. “There’s no bread, no electricity. The situation is deteriorating quickly. Strikes are spreading—something we haven’t seen in years.”
A diplomatic path forward?
Despite the rising rhetoric, Sabti believed diplomacy would prevail in the coming weeks. “There are backchannel discussions between Israel and the US, conducted by long-standing intermediaries. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where there’s both a signed agreement and simultaneous plans for an Israeli strike.”
While acknowledging the risks, he remained cautiously optimistic. “I believe there will be an understanding—something that’s not black or white, but acceptable to both sides. Whether that’s a military option or a diplomatic one, it could still be a solution Israel can live with.”
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