On May 31, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth spoke at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. This is the world’s highest profile international meeting of national security officials; and certainly the most watched, because it was the debut appearance of a key cabinet member of President Donald Trump’s second term. Hegseth’s appointment was controversial. He is a decorated combat veteran who stressed the “warrior ethos” against various “woke” notions that degraded the military profession. But as a Fox news anchor, he had expressed naïve strategic views that tended toward isolationism. His message in Singapore calmed these fears.
His primary focus was on threats from China. “It has to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. We know. It’s public that Xi has ordered his military to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027,” he warned. Then he pledged “Again, to be clear: any attempt by Communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world. There’s no reason to sugarcoat it. The threat China poses is real.” Hegseth also pointed out that Beijing has ambitions across the region, from the Philippines to Japan.
America is responding by increasing the forward deployment of forces in the region, not just the Navy which President Trump started to expand in his first term and is accelerating in his second with a trillion-dollar defense budget, but also with units from all the services. The Marines just deployed a new anti-ship missile battery in Luzon that not only protects the Philippines but would also reach a Chinese Taiwan invasion force. “We must ensure that China cannot dominate us — or our allies and partners. Maintaining the status quo requires strength. That’s just a rational, common-sense goal that all should be able to live with” declared Hegseth.
A major theme that addressed many concerns was that America First does not mean America alone. Indeed, early in his remarks Hegseth stated “And under President Trump’s leadership, the United States is committed to achieving peace through strength. That starts with deterring aggression around the world and here in the Indo-Pacific, here in our priority theater, here with you — our allies and our partners.” Strategists can still look at how operations in different theaters might play out, but Great Power rivalry drives politics worldwide. Alliances and alignments span the globe, as do the ambitions of the major players. And the preparations for security in a turbulent world must run deep.
British carrier strike group, which includes warships from Canada, Norway, and Spain to give it a NATO flavor, entered the Red Sea conflict zone on its way to the Indo-Pacific where it will hold joint exercises with a variety of local navies to demonstrate that the West has friends on a global scale that Beijing can only dream about.
Economics is the material foundation of power. The “trade war” between the U.S. and China is fundamentally different from the commercial disputes that have brought forth President Trump’s broad use of tariffs. China has used its “gains from trade” (capital and tech transfers, expanded industrial capacity supported by trade surpluses) to build a peer geopolitical challenger that threatens not a trade war, but a real war to achieve its regional ambitions. There has been a broad bipartisan consensus in both the Trump and Biden administrations to rebuild strategic industries in America while denying China the means to compete in the development of new technology. As Hegseth stated, “Economic dependence on China only deepens their malign influence and complicates our defense decision space during times of tension. “
This is about industrial policy, not trade policy. We will build what we need. As Hegseth said, “We’re reviving our defense industrial base and investing in our shipyards. We’re rapidly fielding emerging technologies that will help us remain the world leader for generations to come.” He also talked about integrating economic capabilities with allies, especially India and Australia, which with the U.S. and Japan form “The Quad” of nations responding to China’s increased capabilities. The Trump administration has also talked with South Korea and Japan about industrial cooperation, especially in shipbuilding. Decades of neglect has eroded American shipyards while China has created the largest shipbuilding industry in the world.
Addressing China as our “primary” threat was correct, but Hegseth could not ignore threats outside the Indo-Pacific because Beijing is involved in support of aggression across the world, in particular that of Russia and Iran. Hegseth said little about Ukraine except to blame President Biden for failing to deter Russia’s invasion and to declare that President Trump is seeking “durable peace.” But he did say “It’s important for this room to hear today, and all the world — America First certainly does not mean America alone. Especially alongside so many of our allies, model allies like Poland, Israel, and the Gulf States, the Baltic States. And it does not mean ignoring the world.” The named allies stand in the front line against Russia and Iran. Poland and the Baltic States are vocal in their calls for more aid for Ukraine in its valiant defense against Russia.
Hegseth echoed the Trump view that Europe should take the lead in facing down a much weaker Russia, which is logical and certainly doable given NATO’s much greater economic potential. And while NATO has pledged to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP to match the U.S., it will take time after so many years of neglect based on the false hope of perpetual peace dashed by Vladimir Putin. To bring peace through strength right now will require the application of American power to force Putin to conclude peace is his only viable option.
Again, the Russia-Chinese alignment cannot be ignored. In 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing declared they were “friends without limit.” Last month, the leaders of both dictatorships declared a “friendship of steel” using the same words Hitler’s Germany and Mussolini’s Italy had used on the eve of World War II.
The two anti-western revisionist and revanchist powers have held numerous joint military exercises. Most recently, strategic bombers of Russia and China conducted a joint operation over the Sea of Japan on November 29, a threat to both Japan and South Korea (not to mention U.S. bases in both countries). On July 24 last year, they conducted the same kind of operation off the coast of Alaska. They held a joint naval exercise with Iran in the Gulf of Oman just after President Trump threatened Tehran if it did not dismantle its nuclear program.
In the new June issue of the U.S. Naval Institute’s Proceedings journal, Dr. William Bunn, a retired naval intelligence officer now a professor at the Joint Forces College, warns that Russia could join China in a war over Taiwan. Putin has been modernizing his Pacific Fleet. While it has always been assumed that an Indo-China conflict would tempt Moscow into fresh aggression in Europe, Bunn believes “U.S. forces must include a combined Russian-Chinese force in future Pacific wargames.” More proof that to deter China, Russia must be defeated in Ukraine to give credence to a “peace through strength” American policy and posture. Actions not only speak louder than words, they are usually the only things adversaries understand.
William R. Hawkins is a former economics professor who has worked for conservative think tanks and on the Republican staff of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee. He has written widely on international economics and national security issues for both professional and popular publications including for the Army War College, the U.S. Naval Institute, and the National Defense University, among others.
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